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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:17 pm to Paul Allen
quote:
Tampa/St Pete could see significant storm surge?
I think the forecast was anywhere from 1-3ft above ground.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:17 pm to JetFuelTyga
The models predicted the push for Harvey back over the gulf and landing again in LA pretty early. They have a good handle on the steering patterns.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:17 pm to LSUGrrrl
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:18 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
See... This is where I am very skeptical
Grrrl, don't buy the number a model puts out for pressure at landfall. Watch the change in pressure in the last 24 hours before landfall. A big dip tells you theres a possibility of intensification at landfall. All them do it, it's a fair bet shell intensify before land fall.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:18 pm to theunknownknight
quote:
I'm just going to leave this here for all the taint stains saying the track has been consistent
ETA: It's a GIF overtime
Those spaghetti plots are misleading. If you look at the NHC 5-day forecast, you'll notice Irma never ends up outside of the projected cone at any point along the path so far.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:18 pm to JetFuelTyga
Previous post from Duke 3 or so pages back:
quote:
Having said that, why is the cone showing NW movement when radar is not?
The hurricane center believes a north ward component will be present in the next six to eight hours. Hence the move north. It is expected to ride the edge of the bremuda high and as it hits the western limit this flow will be more wnw than west. The exact timing is still not certain, but it will happen eventually.
quote:
Will we just continue to see the cone move further west every single advisory like the previous 20 have?
We will as needed but there's a definite limit to how far west she can realistically go. The upper low that is expected to turn it is a visable swirl near Nebraska and moving down toward the central gulf, as expected. This feature has a counter clockwise flow and as Irma with her tall clouds feels it, it pushes her north.
I understand not totally believing me, I'm not a pro. rds, who is, earlier today explained why were bumping up on the limit of the western possibilities with today's models.
quote:
I think it's legitimate reason for concern
It's not legitimate if you're west of PCB. It's understandable and I don't think you're an idiot for it. All I want is to calm your concerns because the logic driving the forecast makes sense and the features currently exist.
for the rundown of concerns. I'm happy to address them going forward.
quote:
Having said that, why is the cone showing NW movement when radar is not?
The hurricane center believes a north ward component will be present in the next six to eight hours. Hence the move north. It is expected to ride the edge of the bremuda high and as it hits the western limit this flow will be more wnw than west. The exact timing is still not certain, but it will happen eventually.
quote:
Will we just continue to see the cone move further west every single advisory like the previous 20 have?
We will as needed but there's a definite limit to how far west she can realistically go. The upper low that is expected to turn it is a visable swirl near Nebraska and moving down toward the central gulf, as expected. This feature has a counter clockwise flow and as Irma with her tall clouds feels it, it pushes her north.
I understand not totally believing me, I'm not a pro. rds, who is, earlier today explained why were bumping up on the limit of the western possibilities with today's models.
quote:
I think it's legitimate reason for concern
It's not legitimate if you're west of PCB. It's understandable and I don't think you're an idiot for it. All I want is to calm your concerns because the logic driving the forecast makes sense and the features currently exist.
for the rundown of concerns. I'm happy to address them going forward.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:18 pm to LaBR4
When are those wind gusts projected to take place?
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:19 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Surviving the initial hit is one thing. Dealing with the loss of human services for a good week (possibly) is another issue all together.
Exactly why I get the frick out. I'm not afraid of blowing away or a tree falling on me unless I need to be, but it's the weeks of abject misery in the aftermath that I need no part of.
Human suffering, especially mine, is to be avoided.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:19 pm to LSUGrrrl
quote:
Yeah. Hoping ppl will post updates from texts or something. Might be a while before we hear from them.
I hope someone knows the addresses of these individuals just in case.
People reach out in weird places during disasters.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:20 pm to slackster
She sure does favor the left side of that cone though. Which is now in the panhandle.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:20 pm to mightynine
quote:
You don't realize how wrong you are.
classic unknownknight logic
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:21 pm to rds dc
Is Cuba gonna weaken this thing any? Or is she just gonna shrug it off?
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:22 pm to tunechi
Looking at the Key West geotag on Snapchat, there's still a bunch of people riding it out down there like it's no big deal
Yikes
Yikes
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:23 pm to mightynine
quote:
Call me crazy, but it really looks like a move to the northwest on the last frames more than a wobble or a stall.
Nope i've been saying that for the last half hour.
DEF moving NW
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:23 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
but it's the weeks of abject misery in the aftermath that I need no part of.
I've never left for one and have been lucky enough that the biggest issue we've had is loss of power for 2-3 weeks. I won't be staying now that I have kids
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:23 pm to Duke
quote:
Grrrl, don't buy the number a model puts out for pressure at landfall. Watch the change in pressure in the last 24 hours before landfall. A big dip tells you theres a possibility of intensification at landfall. All them do it, it's a fair bet shell intensify before land fall.
Thanks
I definitely believe she will strengthen after leaving Cuba but 898 sounds a little record-chasing to me, that's all.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:24 pm to theunknownknight
quote:
That started Tuesday. I posted the GIF overtime in response to posts saying we've known since Sunday (9/3) when most models had it barely hitting the US
I'm still confused. You want a model to tell you exactly where a storm is going 10 days out?
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