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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:25 pm to
Posted by JetFuelTyga
Born in desert,raised in lion's den
Member since Feb 2016
1799 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:25 pm to
Thanks. Sorry that it was just posted. I'm on my phone and it's hard to keep up without computer. I stuck it out and got buttfricked by Katrina (like many others), so just a little nervous over here.

At this point, it mostly just sucks that so many people are inevitably going to be effected by this bitch. Wouldn't wish Katrina like damage and heartache on even the Gator fans, so it's even hard for me to say "rather them than me". This just fricking sucks all around.
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
46341 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:25 pm to
Yep. Posted before that I found out my stepdad survived Katrina from a random message board after he was missing for 6 days.
Posted by tonydtigr
Beautiful Downtown Glenn Springs,Tx
Member since Nov 2011
6677 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:25 pm to
Hopefully the stall before the turn.
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53874 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:26 pm to
quote:

When are those wind gusts projected to take place?


The highest winds the weather guy said will be on Sunday..after lunch all the way to Midnight...10+ hours of 100+ wind gust. Tremendous wind event
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:26 pm to
quote:

She sure does favor the left side of that cone though. Which is now in the panhandle.


Perhaps. The NHC did a phenomenal job with the forecast track to the point she's at now. The turn is the part where it gets interesting, hence the abnormal uncertainty 24 hours ago. Much of that is gone now.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:26 pm to
quote:

Cuba gonna weaken this thing any? Or is she just gonna shrug it off?


Depends on how long it stays near the coast and how much of the eye ends up on shore.

There was a tremendous convective blowup just as she got close to Cuba. I feel confident Cuba is the reason we're not seeing a big pressure drop and 180 mph winds at this time.
Posted by GeauxTigers2525
Member since May 2017
102 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:26 pm to
quote:

Nope i've been saying that for the last half hour.

DEF moving NW


sure seems that way, irma sure looks like she isn't ready to take on land again
Posted by theunknownknight
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
60899 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:27 pm to
quote:

I'm still confused. You want a model to tell you exactly where a storm is going 10 days out?


I want my models to tell me where it's going 5 days out. And 5 days ago the NHC was wrong.

I don't understand why it makes people so angry to accept that reality.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 11:28 pm
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:27 pm to
quote:

sure seems that way, irma sure looks like she isn't ready to take on land again


At first I kinda shrugged it off as another wobble but she's been doing that the last few frames.
Posted by Vegas Eddie
The Quad
Member since Dec 2013
6063 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:28 pm to
quote:

Looking at the Key West geotag on Snapchat, there's still a bunch of people riding it out down there like it's no big deal Yikes


The cock republic is strong
Posted by Thib-a-doe Tiger
Member since Nov 2012
36751 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:29 pm to
quote:

The highest winds the weather guy said will be on Sunday..after lunch all the way to Midnight...10+ hours of 100+ wind gust. Tremendous wind event



Damn. I've never been to the projected landfall area. Are the houses typically on pilings there? Would not want anything lifted off the ground having that kind of strain on it for 10+ hours
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
87256 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:29 pm to
Brad Panovich just said he thinks the turn north has started. James Spann retweeted.

is it happening?
Posted by GhostofJackson
Speedy Teflon Wizard
Member since Nov 2009
7230 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:30 pm to
quote:

I want my models to tell me where it's going 5 days out. And 5 days ago the NHC was wrong.


You mean 5 days ago when it had it hitting the northern part of Cuba? You can literally go back one page and see you are wrong.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:30 pm to
quote:

Brad Panovich just said he thinks the turn north has started. James Spann retweeted.

is it happening?


She's riding the coast a little bit longer I think.
Posted by LSUGrrrl
Frisco, TX
Member since Jul 2007
46341 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:30 pm to
No problem.

I just happened to remember the post was only a few pages back to just c&p for you. Hard to follow such a long thread by phone.

I've said for several days now that there just isn't a "good" outcome here. No way I want this shifting west and hitting LA, MS, etc but hard to root for it to follow the projected path to smash FL.

I'd say no reason to be nervous right now. Just keep an eye on it to see if there are any drastic changes. It's not going to zip across the coast in a few hours so even if something totally crazy happens you will still have time to prepare!
Posted by Pendulum
Member since Jan 2009
8045 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:31 pm to
quote:


I want my models to tell me where it's going 5 days out. And 5 days ago the NHC was wrong.

I don't understand why it makes people so angry to accept that reality.


The nhc was pretty much spot on 5 days ago, unless you are expecting them to have it down to tens of a miles of range. Don't be ridiculous
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 11:32 pm
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:31 pm to
Apparently Broadwave.com has a Key West webcam going. It's on TWC now.
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53874 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:31 pm to
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 11:32 pm
Posted by theunknownknight
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
60899 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:32 pm to
quote:

You mean 5 days ago when it had it hitting the northern part of Cuba? You can literally go back one page and see you are wrong.


The very bottom line of the cone grazed Cuba. If that's your standard then we should expect you to say this will be a direct hit on Destin. Of course no ones saying that - but it's "in the cone" as much as Cuba was
Posted by rocket31
Member since Jan 2008
41887 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 11:32 pm to
quote:

And 5 days ago the NHC was wrong.


tell that to Cuba i suppose.

appears ol Irma just blasted right through there

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