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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:48 pm to East Coast Band
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:48 pm to East Coast Band
Read the GFS as saying it expects late intensification and not that it will certainly be that low.
1
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:48 pm to Duke
quote:
would just like for the people saying the hurricane center and models have totally missed something to give their reasoning why the projection is wrong. You know, fact based information that isn't just "nature is hard to predict"
For one, the storm is presently moving west and actually appears to maybe be moving a bit SW about to cross Cuba. I understand that this could be a wobble or possible eye wall replacement.
Having said that, why is the cone showing NW movement when radar is not?
I get that the cone is a forecast but the cone actually meets up with where the storm is located now.
Will we just continue to see the cone move further west every single advisory like the previous 20 have?
I think it's legitimate reason for concern.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:48 pm to East Coast Band
Yes, the GFS has been pretty consistent of it getting below 900mb. Now if it stays near or goes more inland over Cuba it probably would not be that strong.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 10:50 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:49 pm to RollTide1987
quote:
de1987
Is this storm expected to maintain intensity?
It went from Cat 5, to Cat 4, back to Cat 5.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:49 pm to LaBR4
If Irma can just continue to skirt Cuba and not move over it very much, she should not lose too much strength. Even so, she will go over very warm waters once she makes the northward turn, and she will likely just continue to become a monster.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:50 pm to Tiger in NY
quote:
People are basing their families' welfare (in part) on this information.
God I hope not.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:50 pm to Rhino5
How can Jose be so strong coming right behind Irma? Irma had to draw a tremendous amount of energy from that area and surely churn up some cooler water
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:50 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
An admin pointed this out as it happened. People were admonished and made to feel stupid for being worried about this thing potentially making it deep into the gulf because some projections put it there at the time, more than 5 days out. They were told to bank on a sharp turn that was projected more than 5 days out.
It was 6+ days out, which was the point of those discussions. There was no reason to worry about it going into the GOM that far out, regardless of what the models said about a turn or not. If you want to worry, fine, but it doesn't change the fact there was no logical reason to do so.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:50 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
Maybe im seeing shite but even on your radar that last frame is showing her lifting NW
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:50 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
makes the northward turn
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:52 pm to slackster
quote:
This.
There are a shite ton of people who seem disappointed they're not getting the storm right up their arse. I'll never understand it.
As someone that's read 99% of this entire thread from the beginning, it's clear there's a certain personality type present that does the exact shite mentioned above without realizing they're doing it. This thread would be pointless if we all just threw our gut opinions out there and didn't post/stand by/explain what the NHC and other PROFESSIONALS are expecting of this storm.
"But... but... but why aren't they focused on ME!!? TWC should be at MY house, talking to ME, cause I know what the hell I'm talkin bout! I totally live 6 hours away from the coast in northern Mississippi and I went through Camille, she tore a limb off my pine tree and it was insane! Because of all this experience I have, I should be included in every discussion and have my OWN forecast models based off my gut feelins! This thang is headed for Mississippi again, I can just feel it"
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:52 pm to Thib-a-doe Tiger
quote:
People were admonished
Must have missed that page. I thought people were told to stop making projections with no scientific data backing them up - just gut feelings. I don't completely disregard gut feelings, either. I think they are often a subconscious picking up on valid patterns and data.
Maybe this was just a difference of interpretation or tone not translating well online.
Admins were also telling people to chill with the trolls. Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:52 pm to LSUvegasbombed
quote:
What the hell happened in last hour to have 10 pages?
Trolls and Katrina Wishcasters.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:52 pm to RollTide1987
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:53 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
even on your radar that last frame is showing her lifting NW
I'm not seeing it.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:53 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
OKay Naples/Tampa baws
You have about ~18 hours to get your shite together.
Good luck. My boss left the Naples area this morning. 13 hours later and he hasn't reached Tallahassee yet.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:53 pm to LSUvegasbombed
Shifted a bit to the west, track, and has resulted in much chatter/back and forth among some
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:54 pm to ItTakesAThief
quote:
God I hope not.
Why not. Do you not see the update that happens all day on page 1? That there are some pretty well informed people posting here?
Did you follow the Harvey thread? A shitload of great info was shared in that thread that helped a lot of people.
Never mind, just watch the weather channel and follow facebook. I'm sure that will work out fine.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:54 pm to LSUvegasbombed
quote:
What the hell happened in last hour to have 10 pages?
Bob Breck opened our eyes.
Posted on 9/8/17 at 10:55 pm to 50_Tiger
Its either a wobble jog to the North or its prematurely taking a northern move now but it definitely bounced North after hitting Cuba.
This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 10:55 pm
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