re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

The Associated Press has reported that 5.6 million people have evacuated, which is the largest evacuation due to a hurricane in US history. That would be like evacuating the entire population of Alabama plus 800,000 or so people.

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Its either a wobble jog to the North or its prematurely taking a northern move now but it definitely bounced North after hitting Cuba.

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Yeah I didn't want to use the term air brake because shes not slowing down, but it looks like she did that.

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For one, the storm is presently moving west and actually appears to maybe be moving a bit SW about to cross Cuba. I understand that this could be a wobble or possible eye wall replacement.

Having said that, why is the cone showing NW movement when radar is not?

I get that the cone is a forecast but the cone actually meets up with where the storm is located now.

Will we just continue to see the cone move further west every single advisory like the previous 20 have?

I think it's legitimate reason for concern.

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Hurricanes wobble back and forth all the time, NHC is very slow in changing any motions unless they have been consistent for 2-3 advisories or a number of hours.

The cone could move west again, but it's not gonna move much further west due to the fact that hurricanes don't like dry, stable air which is in place now over LA,MS and AL plus combined with the incoming shortwave which is basically irmas ticket north, plus a weekness in the atmosphere which hurricanes love to follow which will bring it north, its not a matter of if but when at this point when she's ready to make the turn.

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When recently did all the facts blow up in the experts faces?

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Not altogether analogous but not altogether dissimilar is The National Hurricane Center forecasting of Katrina. Models persisted in forecasting Katrina, after crossing Florida from east to west, would turn from a WSW heading to a NW then N heading to strike the Panhandle east of Destin.

As I recall the reasons then for the turn north were similar to today; a weakening Bermuda Ridge and an advancing trough.

Again from memory TNHC continued to rely on the models slowly advancing the forecasted landfall west along the Panhandle while Katrina maintained her WSW/W movement. Most people in LA/MS went to bed Thursday thinking the Hurricane's landfall would be to the east of them.

I think TNHC keeps their official forecasts and graphics archived so my memory can (and should) be checked.

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Will we just continue to see the cone move further west every single advisory like the previous 20 have?

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What 20? I have seen it move west, east, and back west again a little over the last few days but not much.

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Whats the landfall record for strength?

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I believe it was Hurricane Camille, which had a pressure of 900mb at landfall.

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Having said that, why is the cone showing NW movement when radar is not?

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The hurricane center believes a north ward component will be present in the next six to eight hours. Hence the move north. It is expected to ride the edge of the bremuda high and as it hits the western limit this flow will be more wnw than west. The exact timing is still not certain, but it will happen eventually.

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Will we just continue to see the cone move further west every single advisory like the previous 20 have? 

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We will as needed but there's a definite limit to how far west she can realistically go. The upper low that is expected to turn it is a visable swirl near Nebraska and moving down toward the central gulf, as expected. This feature has a counter clockwise flow and as Irma with her tall clouds feels it, it pushes her north.

I understand not totally believing me, I'm not a pro. rds, who is, earlier today explained why were bumping up on the limit of the western possibilities with today's models.

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I think it's legitimate reason for concern

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It's not legitimate if you're west of PCB. It's understandable and I don't think you're an idiot for it. All I want is to calm your concerns because the logic driving the forecast makes sense and the features currently exist.

for the rundown of concerns. I'm happy to address them going forward.

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Having said that, why is the cone showing NW movement when radar is not?

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The cone and forecasts are based on pre-existing variables, assuming nothing changes.

Pre-existing =/= Developing Variables.

That's why these models have been fairly inaccurate. The thing is wobbling and being influenced by ultra high pressure [that no one predicted] in the Atlantic.

If it continues West SW, eventually it gets beyond the Atlantic pressure and succumbs to the pressure that was expected to force it North. But, like anything, that pressure pattern may change.

So in other words, we don't know where the fck this thing is going. And that's half the damage.

Eye wall going right up the middle