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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:42 am to
Posted by Roll Tide Ravens
Birmingham, AL
Member since Nov 2015
51685 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:42 am to
Hurricane Jose is now a Category 4 hurricane. Poised to impact some of the same islands already crushed by Irma.
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22592 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:44 am to
quote:

Those poor souls on those islands already hit by Irma


Not much shelter left for them I imagine, just a lot of loose debris laying around with a category 4 headed your way and no real way off the island. I can't even imagine.
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:44 am to
Thanks. As it moves inland, the models seem less decisive and there has been a definite shift in the cone. Just wondered what was causing the models to sway that way.

I understand steering (what is steering), I just don't understand why the highs and troughs do what they do. Way above my head!
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51717 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:45 am to
quote:

Those Hurricane Hunters are getting extra work in for sure this season ... is that their only job or are they like Air Force pilots who do this during hurricane season??
The Air Force Reserve 53d Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, the world's only operational military weather reconnaissance unit, is based at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, Mississippi.
Posted by Homesick Tiger
Greenbrier, AR
Member since Nov 2006
56145 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:45 am to
quote:

Good luck pal....I'm ahead of you. I will let you know if I find faster route


Just wondering if you're seeing a rise in gas prices as you're travelling north or are the prices about what they were pre evacuation? Have you seen any places without gas considering the amount of traffic?
Posted by CypressTrout10
Louisiana
Member since Jun 2016
3140 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:47 am to
I know this is a complete crap shoot,

but what the heck is that showing up on GFS run at 384 in exact same location as Irma is now? Is that Jose after a loop?
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
104006 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:48 am to
quote:

but what the heck is that showing up on GFS run at 384 in exact same location as Irma is now? Is that Jose after a loop?




No, that's a new storm.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:49 am to
quote:

I'm about to begin the the trek up 75 from Tampa. I live in Hyde Park and fully expect to come back to a roof in pieces and shattered windows. Hope everyone stays safe.

Woah. Really? The flooding is what I would be most concerned about but unless you are in A or B...


Tampa is in a peculiar spot with respect to the winds. As we sit right now, the NHC track calls for the center of Irma to be 75 miles to the east of Tampa. They also forecast Irma's 58+ mph sustained winds to extend 115 miles from her center at that point, putting Tampa comfortably inside of significant sustained winds.

That's not going to destroy a home, but tree damage and power outages will be very likely, and gusts can get quite a bit higher than that, so we'll see.
Posted by TFS4E
Washington DC
Member since Nov 2008
14165 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:51 am to
I can't provide anything specific other than than Waze app usually is really good about "real-time" updates. It also lets you see nearby gas stations.


Good luck and stay safe!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:51 am to
quote:

Did your question of what exactly will cause it to turn north get answered?


It's a shortwave trough that is coming into the SE from the Midwest over the next few days. It will erode some of the ridge above Irma, and the counterclockwise flow around the trough will steer Irma northward. It is hard to see on the models though, but it is there.
Posted by CuseTiger
Member since Jul 2013
9068 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:51 am to
quote:

but what the heck is that showing up on GFS run at 384 in exact same location as Irma is now?

that would be Lee

This post was edited on 9/8/17 at 9:53 am
Posted by NYNolaguy1
Member since May 2011
21764 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:53 am to
quote:

Recon data seems to support increasing winds again, that "reorganization" period might be coming to an end.


Looks that way. HH apparently found some 140+ kt winds, thats 161+ mph...

LINK

quote:

And latest set @53rdWRS recon obs. of #Irma also suggest it is re-intensifying post #ERC. 1st #SFMR obs since yesterday of >140kt winds.


Posted by TypoKnig
Member since Aug 2011
8928 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:53 am to
How fitting would it be for Hurricane Lee to hit New Orleans this year?
Posted by LSUvegasbombed
Red Stick
Member since Sep 2013
15464 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:53 am to
Hurricane Lee

what percentage do you have it comes for NOLA... i say 70 percent
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
46765 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:54 am to
Gas buddy is not comprehensive but can be a life saver. Gray stations means they don't know, Green has gas and red is out. Zoom in on where you are.

LINK
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:55 am to
quote:

Recon data seems to support increasing winds again, that "reorganization" period might be coming to an end.


Looks like Irma's eye is about to really open up now that the replacement cycle is done.

Posted by UAinSOUTHAL
Mobile,AL
Member since Dec 2012
5298 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:56 am to
Posted by LSUvegasbombed
Red Stick
Member since Sep 2013
15464 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:56 am to
so will Irma be a cat 5 making landfall in Miami?
Posted by Captain Ron
Location: Ted's
Member since Dec 2012
4340 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:56 am to
quote:

that would be Lee


Coming for Mitch the Bitch.
Posted by Dick Jacket
Member since Nov 2016
1587 posts
Posted on 9/8/17 at 9:57 am to
I'm hearing that toddlers have really bad hurricane allergies and should thus be given Benadryl throughout the duration of any evacuation.
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