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Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:10 pm to AU24
quote:
IBM experimental Deep Thunder model takes a CAT 5 #Irma directly into #Miami Sat nite. Life-threatening, landscape altering event likely.
That is MPAS but I'm sure they have their in house version jacked up pretty good given IBM resources. Here is the NCAR version, looks similar but pressures aren't as low.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:11 pm to BayouBengals03
quote:
What made all the models change and have it go a little more rest? Looks like Florida is going to take it straight on now.
I'm not up to the minute on this bitch, but I thought it's kind of been predicted to do this same path on and off again for the past two days. Did something change?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:12 pm to slackster
quote:
18z GFS Ensembles:
Motherfrick... I need to be in Louisville next Thursday.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:12 pm to rt3
quote:
between last drop from AF305 and first drop from AF309 (~6 hr 15 min) Irma moved +0.4 N +1.5 W pressure fell 2 MB as well
Continues to move W WAYYY faster than North. I know we expect a turn but the SOB needs to ease up on the west motion please.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:15 pm to metallica81788
quote:Look at Google maps showing folks leaving FL and think that it has been like this for days now. Now think about your plan taking you *through* that wad-o-people all throughout Georgia.
metallica81788
Bottom line: leave tonight, do what you have to do to get through ATL* and come home to NOLA.
ETA: I may or may not have lived in your fair city some humpty-bazillion years ago. Nicest people in the world. She-crab soup is the best. Now get out.
*ETA2: I lived in ATL for two hellish years. Outside of rush-hours, and if there are no wrecks, the best east-west route through ATL is exactly that: stay on I-20. You're actually going under the main body of ATL population/traffic. Just try to do it in the middle of the night.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 8:27 pm
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:17 pm to RummelTiger
Holy scrap did you see the guy shoot himself on live TV? It was like the next video in the link you sent.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:18 pm to DoctorTechnical
My dumbass brother is still in Key West, so he can "see what it looks like tomorrow morning" before deciding to leave or not.
Safe to say, my family is pissed at his decision making skills.
Safe to say, my family is pissed at his decision making skills.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:18 pm to DoctorTechnical
Gov. Scott just ordered all state schools in FL closed tomorrow and Monday...even in the Panhandle. Seems a bit overkill but seems like 75% may have been closing anyways.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:18 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:
Continues to move W WAYYY faster than North. I know we expect a turn but the SOB needs to ease up on the west motion please.
For the thousandth time, it's been forecasted to do exactly what it's doing now. Nothing has changed
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:19 pm to CaptainJ47
18z HWRF
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:19 pm to bamabenny
quote:
My dumbass brother is still in Key West, so he can "see what it looks like tomorrow morning" before deciding to leave or not.
Safe to say, my family is pissed at his decision making skills.
Suggest to him he watch a Katrina documentary on Netflix tonight.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:19 pm to MrSmith
MrSmith- so tell me where is your landfall projection? Also- at what time should I see a stronger N movement based on the metrics?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:21 pm to slackster
quote:
18z GFS Ensembles:
The Mid-south would be in for flooding rainfall if those tracks would verify. 3 days in generally the same area.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:21 pm to macatak911
quote:
Suggest to him he watch a Katrina documentary on Netflix tonight.
Is this good?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:21 pm to bamabenny
quote:
My dumbass brother is still in Key West, so he can "see what it looks like tomorrow morning" before deciding to leave or not.
Safe to say, my family is pissed at his decision making skills.
Key West is an interesting situation. They have only one way out, and they've got a long way to go to get out of harm's way, but there is also a legitimate chance they'll catch a glancing blow on the southwestern side of the storm like San Juan, PR did. San Juan didn't get winds stronger than 60 mph.
I'd 100% advise leaving since the risk is too high, but Orlando has a higher chance of getting 64kt winds than Key West, according to the NHC.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:21 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:
Also- at what time should I see a stronger N movement based on the metrics?
Prolly sometime around here?
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:22 pm to bamabenny
I have a buddy that I grew up playing football with who is sticking it out in Miami. Everyone is telling him not to be an idiot, but he said he's been through hurricanes before and he can survive this one, too. He also said he's not going to let a bunch of people steal his shite, so he's not leaving. He never was the brightest one of us.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:23 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:
at what time should I see a stronger N movement based on the metrics?
It's pretty much WNW for the next 54-60 hours. Hell, some of the models are suggesting WNW for the next 36 or so, then nearly due west for the next 18-24.
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:23 pm to MrSmith
quote:
For the thousandth time, it's been forecasted to do exactly what it's doing now. Nothing has changed
You can try to say that to them for the 1,001st time if you feel like it. I'm just going to tell this wall. I bet you neither one understands it better than the other even after we say it again.
This post was edited on 9/7/17 at 8:26 pm
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