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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:53 pm to
Posted by jcaz
Laffy
Member since Aug 2014
19273 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:53 pm to
If it stays a CAT5 at landfall on Miami then Katrina and even Harvey will be afterthoughts.
After seeing the size comparison between Andrew and Irma today I realized how bad this will be.
Posted by Dick Jacket
Member since Nov 2016
1587 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:55 pm to
I live on the intracoastal waterway (humble brag) and I'm evacuating to Macon (nothing to brag about) and have a feeling I'm coming home to substantial damage.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:55 pm to
between last drop from AF305 and first drop from AF309 (~6 hr 15 min)

Irma moved +0.4 N +1.5 W

pressure fell 2 MB as well
Posted by Luke
1113 Chartres Street, NOLA
Member since Nov 2004
14301 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:56 pm to
There probably will be no Miami by Sunday pm
Posted by LaBR4
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2005
53875 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:57 pm to
Damn, I didn't take the time to read about..good info.

Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93584 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:59 pm to
quote:

Where is that Shepard Smith gif when you need it?


This frickin' guy...

LINK
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:59 pm to
18z HMON. More of the same.

Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 7:59 pm to
NW eyewall...

~120 mph winds at the surface

~165 mph winds ~2,800 ft off the surface
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:00 pm to
YOU ALL FLOAT TOO!!!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:01 pm to
quote:

What made all the models change and have it go a little more rest? Looks like Florida is going to take it straight on now.




From what I can understand, the high pressure ridge over the Atlantic is staying stronger than anticipated. That keeps Irma on the southern side of the guidance, and presumably, impacts the eventual northern turn.
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:01 pm to
874 Say what you want, it's consistant. Wonder what causes it to do that?
Posted by LSUBoo
Knoxville, TN
Member since Mar 2006
104000 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:01 pm to
And your kids die too.
Posted by RummelTiger
Official TD Sauces Club Member
Member since Aug 2004
93584 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

Wonder what causes it to do that?


Gulf Stream...and not moving over Cuba.
Posted by GeorgeTheGreek
Sparta, Greece
Member since Mar 2008
69121 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:06 pm to
It's You'll.
Posted by metallica81788
NO
Member since Sep 2008
10530 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:06 pm to
I'm planning on leaving Charleston on Saturday to go back home to NOLA (only place to stay with multiple animals in tow I know it's really far) and trying to decide on a route to avoid traffic. Plan to leave at arse o' clock night/AM. I know it could move west and could only be a cat 1/2 by time it gets that far north but having been through Katrina not really willing to take that chance. Rode out Matthew last year but this is different and not taking chances. Any thoughts? Disagreements?
Posted by TigerNAtux
Louisiana
Member since Dec 2007
18622 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:07 pm to
That makes the HMON forcast a ridiculously low pressure?
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:08 pm to
Sieg Heil
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:08 pm to
18z GFS Ensembles:

Posted by Luke
1113 Chartres Street, NOLA
Member since Nov 2004
14301 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:09 pm to
Get out asap bud
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/7/17 at 8:09 pm to
~155 mph winds just ~110 feet in the air in the SE eyewall
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