re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

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first few are on the weaker side of the storm, right? At least as far as storm surge. Or does that not matter as much for smaller islands.

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I'm not sure. I have friends, colleagues and clients on most of those islands all the way back to Florida. I have been searching the Internet to find storm surge predictions and most call for 7-11 feet but don't give details of which sides or exact locations. If anyone knows of a site with these facts/predictions it would be greatly appreciated.

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i have a feeling Irma won't be a 5 at landfall

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That's cute

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These things just don't tend to maintain that type of intensity for long enough.

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This isn't your typical storm, I hope you are right though.

Some history:

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The Labor Day Hurricane was the most intense storm ever known to have struck the United States, having the lowest sea level pressure ever recorded in the United States—a central pressure of 892 mb (26.35 inHg)—suggesting an intensity of between 162 kt and 164 kt (186.4 mph – 188.7 mph). The somewhat compensating effects of a slow (7 kt, 8.1 mph) translational velocity along with an extremely tiny radius of maximum wind (5 nmi, 9.3 miles) led to an analyzed intensity at landfall of 160 kt (184.1 mph, Category 5). This is the highest intensity for a U.S. landfalling hurricane in HURDAT2, as 1969’s Hurricane Camille has been recently reanalyzed to have the second highest landfalling intensity with 150 kt (172.6 mph).[11]

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These storms are never your typical storm thus far out, until they are. The truth of the matter is it's still days from US landfall.

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IDK man that new map looks like ~55% of the 5 day cone is to the west of central florida....

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Agreed, and that seems to be based more from the Euro models right now. I feel bad hoping the euro is wrong because that'll still devastate someone else, but that west coast track is giving me a very surreal feeling.

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I am not buying this "huge vertical swing to the west" until this bitch is dead and gone in Greenland

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Disagree with this one, the models would've corrected that by now if they didn't have a pretty good inclination it would happen like that. They've been seeing this trough setup pulling it NE somewhere around FL since the first true models started rolling out. If this feature hadn't set up as planned up to this point the models wouldve had a pretty sizeable shift.

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I have a feeling Irma won't be a 5 at landfall.

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Maybe not, but neither was Katrina, or Ivan, or Rita, or Andrew. Even a strong Cat. 2 can be devastating, so even if Irma makes a lamdfall as a 4 or even a 3, it will have major impacts.

Does windy have storm surge? It certainly has wind speed and direction which would be two of three determinants

Anyone know if next euro comes out at midnight eastern? Or is it 1 AM?

Of course there's a storm surge with one of the most powerful hurricanes in recorded history