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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:20 am to
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71052 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:20 am to
Wait...so the latest run has this thing impacting Miami-Dade as a Category 5, maintaining intensity, and then hitting Georgia/SC as a Category 5?

Do I have that right?
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 11:20 am
Posted by PhillipJFry
Member since Sep 2016
1056 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:20 am to
If you live in Tampa and are worried and need supplies, I would go now. I swung by Wal-Mart on Dale Mabry and it's a madhouse with almost no more canned goods left. Out of water as well.

I came in to get a flash light and that was a mistake.



Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:20 am to
quote:

So far, Cat 5 from Miami all the way past Melbourne, maybe even Daytona.


I know this doesn't seem like much, but skirting the east coast of FL keeps the coast out of the strongest winds. The current GFS track has Irma moving 13-14 MPH to the north as it brushes Florida. That forward motion can be subtracted from the winds that will come out of the north as the storm moves parallel to the coast.

Might be insignificant, but worth noting.
Posted by jdd48
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2012
23711 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:20 am to
quote:

Anyone else concerned about that system sitting behind Irma? The Jose potential one. It's just like, yeah, I'll hang out over here going further south.


I may be wrong on this, but I thought someone mentioned that right now Irma's outflow is keeping it from strengthening significantly?
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 11:23 am
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:21 am to
quote:

Wait...so the latest run has this thing impacting Miami-Dade as a Category 5, maintaining intensity, and then hitting Georgia/SC as a Category 5?

Do I have that right?


Yes.

I would be leaving now. I would expect local Government to start moving people soon.
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51685 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:21 am to
Here's the run:

Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30506 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:22 am to
Damn, that's scary
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:23 am to
Posted by GetCocky11
Calgary, AB
Member since Oct 2012
53509 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:23 am to
Gross.
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51685 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:24 am to
quote:

I know this doesn't seem like much, but skirting the east coast of FL keeps the coast out of the strongest winds. The current GFS track has Irma moving 13-14 MPH to the north as it brushes Florida. That forward motion can be subtracted from the winds that will come out of the north as the storm moves parallel to the coast.

Might be insignificant, but worth noting.

So, instead of surface winds of 170 mph, we could have 156 mph? That's a real comfort to know.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:24 am to
Were gonna need more car woorshes.
Posted by CptBengal
BR Baby
Member since Dec 2007
71661 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:24 am to
Scraping the S FL coast as a sub 900 monster.....good god.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:24 am to


The shortwave we're watching digs a little farther south and east this run, opening up the gap north farther east. The shortwave is that little yellow splotchy area north of Mobile. Models aren't going to be exactly right with the development of that energy and little changes in strength and placement make the difference on just how far west Irma gets before the hard north.

It's amazing how a subtle little feature can play such a big role in the location of a giant storm like Irma, and why predicting final landfalls is still so difficult this far away.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102516 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:24 am to
quote:

quote:
Ryan Maue @RyanMaue
Hurricane #Irma is still intensifying. Now up to 155-knots (180 mph)
Extrapolating Saffir-Simpson scale, 158-knots would be Category 6.




Posted by SheaForHeisman
Oxford, MS
Member since Aug 2017
762 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:24 am to
180 MPH sustained winds, thats a feisty ole slut
Posted by Uncle JackD
Member since Nov 2007
59560 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:25 am to
What do the numbers on the ride side indicate?
Posted by RollTide1987
Baltimore, MD
Member since Nov 2009
71052 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:25 am to
quote:

So, instead of surface winds of 170 mph, we could have 156 mph? That's a real comfort to know.


Especially when you consider the structures in Miami-Dade are only rated for 150 MPH winds.
Posted by bootlegger
Ponchatoula
Member since Dec 2012
5524 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:25 am to
Posted by cajunangelle
Member since Oct 2012
166742 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:26 am to
quote:

Their servers are slammed right now! They should contract out Chicken's hamsters.
They temp removed 'soundings' because the server is being hammered. And dangnabbit it looks like it is back to 2 landfalls. Miami, pounding the east coast to Melbourne Cape Caneveral then hitting GA/SC line more on the Savannah side. Will the pounding on Fla. knock her down before hand?
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 11:27 am
Posted by yurintroubl
Dallas, Tx.
Member since Apr 2008
30192 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 11:26 am to
quote:

don't see how they're playing the Bucs/Dolphins game in Miami on Sunday


Name 3 things that are at home in deep water:
Dolphins
Buccaneers
Seabiscuit






Well that coulda been a disaster... NFL scheduled the hurricane game perfectly.
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