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re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down

Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:21 am to
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:21 am to
Surge is largely a function of the low pressure. There's less force pushing the water down and it rises up more. Size of hurricane and wind direction also play a role, so there will be some impact of the direction she comes at a location but the surge will be there with a big deep hurricane like this.

I take this back! iIt is indeed the winds pushing (though technically a function of pressure) that have the bigger impact.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 9:27 am
Posted by saint tiger225
San Diego
Member since Jan 2011
48828 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:21 am to
Nice pics of that thing. Thanks oldsouth.

Posted by Schmelly
Member since Jan 2014
16139 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:22 am to
quote:

went through an eye-wall replacement cycle


Can u explain this. I'm learning so much, and wasting my day, lol
Posted by notiger1997
Metairie
Member since May 2009
61722 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:22 am to
So how is Miami going to handle the surge if the current model holds true? I know it's not a Nola type situation, but I don't know the lay out and topography of that city
Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
40972 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:22 am to
quote:

They don't lose their surge strength as quickly as their wind strength if they lose it at all. Katrina was still carrying the surge strength from her peak.


Not so much storm surge "strength" but the fact that it was such a huge size storm, and the surge started building and being pushed towards shore when it was a 5.
Posted by HubbaBubba
North of DFW, TX
Member since Oct 2010
51679 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:23 am to
Would be great if all the Katrina memory-lane types started their own thread.
Posted by OldSouth
Folsom, LA
Member since Oct 2011
11006 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:24 am to
quote:

Whatever happened with that new satellite that went up earlier this year or late last year that was supposed to give us these new, crazy, never before seen views of the storm? Are those coming out yet?
That's what's producing all these high res images posted here.
Posted by cypressbrake3
Member since Oct 2014
3681 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:24 am to
Dumbass here, can someone tell me if there is much chance of Irma hitting the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coast?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:26 am to
quote:

Can u explain this. I'm learning so much, and wasting my day, lol


You'll often see strong bands immediately outside of the eye wall. Sometimes those bands wrap all the way around and will close off the inner eye wall, choking it's access to moist air. The inner eye wall weakens, and eventually gets replaced as the outer band contracts. During that cycle, you're weakening the part of the storm with the strongest winds, so the intensity dips accordingly.

After the cycle you'll usually see am expansion of the wind field, provided the storm has enough time and favorable circumstances.
Posted by IT_Dawg
Georgia
Member since Oct 2012
26682 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:26 am to
As of now, the models say no, but if it doesn't push north at Florida, then it could
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:27 am to
think NOAA2 is done for now

AF309 coming around for pass #3 through Irma's eye.
Posted by Schmelly
Member since Jan 2014
16139 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:29 am to
quote:

quote: Can u explain this. I'm learning so much, and wasting my day, lol You'll often see strong bands immediately outside of the eye wall. Sometimes those bands wrap all the way around and will close off the inner eye wall, choking it's access to moist air. The inner eye wall weakens, and eventually gets replaced as the outer band contracts. During that cycle, you're weakening the part of the storm with the strongest winds, so the intensity dips accordingly. After the cycle you'll usually see am expansion of the wind field, provided the storm has enough time and favorable circumstances.


Gotcha, understand it now, just didn't know the vernacular
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 9:32 am
Posted by Saintsisit
Member since Jan 2013
5246 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:30 am to
It's amazing looking at that awesome image of the eye rotation knowing below those clouds all hell is breaking loose!
Posted by Techdog89
Baton Rouge
Member since Dec 2016
994 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:30 am to
quote:

Dumbass here, can someone tell me if there is much chance of Irma hitting the Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coast?


Time for you to evacuate Dumbass!
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 9:31 am
Posted by JS87
Member since Aug 2010
17702 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:33 am to
How is this thread not stickied yet?
Posted by Pedro
Geaux Hawks
Member since Jul 2008
39094 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:38 am to
You forgot speed of the storm as well. Speed plays a huge huge roll. A slower storm is gonna have more time to push water where a speedier storm isn't gonna push as much.
Posted by Paul Allen
Montauk, NY
Member since Nov 2007
78302 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:38 am to
Me too lol
Posted by theronswanson
House built with my hands
Member since Feb 2012
3256 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:39 am to
quote:

These tracks do not look good for the Tampa bay area. Too far away for me to be in panic/crisis mode.


Yeah. Water has been hard to find
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147069 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:40 am to
if I'm in the Keys or S. Fla. I'm getting all the essentials ready to go and if nothing changes by late tonight or early tomorrow... I'm outta there

also... don't see how they're playing the Bucs/Dolphins game in Miami on Sunday
Posted by Hangit
The Green Swamp
Member since Aug 2014
46765 posts
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:41 am to
quote:

Yeah. Water has been hard to find


Fox 13 said this morning that Publix is out. I am going to do the 5 gallon jug thing.
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