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Started By
Message
re: Hurricane Irma - Spinning Down
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:58 am to tgrbaitn08
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:58 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Katrina was heading to Florida Saturday morning when I left to go fishing.
By noon that same day they were calling for mandatory evacuation in New Orleans.
The storm hit Monday morning.
Not true.
5
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:58 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
Really appreciate your diligence in reporting these soundings.
as someone who hated math all throughout my school years... I seem to REALLY LOVE numbers now
hence why I'm a sports statistician
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:58 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
We are still at 5 days out, but when do you consider moving 5.5 million people?
Today.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 8:58 am to rt3
Also any of the well informed folks in here know how bad of a storm can the Hurricane Hunters go through before not being able too?
We have to be approaching that soon eh?
We have to be approaching that soon eh?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:00 am to slackster
quote:quote:
Katrina was heading to Florida Saturday morning when I left to go fishing.
By noon that same day they were calling for mandatory evacuation in New Orleans.
The storm hit Monday morning.
Not true.
I went to a HS football game the Friday night before Katrina knowing the potential for that storm hitting us was there but we weren't the "direct bullseye"
got back home from that football game and it was "pack your things, we leave in the morning"
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:00 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Katrina was heading to Florida Saturday morning when I left to go fishing. By noon that same day they were calling for mandatory evacuation in New Orleans. The storm hit Monday morning.
But there was no front coming down like this one...
And 12 years later, models are that much more advanced....
I was impressed with the models about the Harvey loop..
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:01 am to 50_Tiger
I will give credit where credit is due. Governor Rick Scott did an excellent job during Hurricane Matthew last year. He has already asked for the State of Emergency assistance from the federal government and Florida just like the Gulf States take these things seriously. I imagine that south Florida people are already getting ready and will begin evacuations within the next couple of days.
This post was edited on 9/5/17 at 9:05 am
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:01 am to slackster
Yep, I was in DC on business and my wife called to ask if I'd seen the storm in the gulf. I pulled up the NHC site and this is what I saw. Turned to my buddy and said, this is the one they've been talking about for 30 years. Went straight to the airport that second.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:01 am to slackster
I just remember leaving early Saturday morning to go fishing and wasn't really worried about it.
That was the last time I saw my house as I knew it until I got back in the city 2 weeks later.
That was the last time I saw my house as I knew it until I got back in the city 2 weeks later.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:02 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Also any of the well informed folks in here know how bad of a storm can the Hurricane Hunters go through before not being able too?
We have to be approaching that soon eh?
From what I've read, it's fairly routine to fly into a hurricane because it's mostly horizontal winds that don't affect the plane all that much. It's vertical winds that cause turbulence.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:03 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
We are still at 5 days out, but when do you consider moving 5.5 million people?
I would think today you would need to start moving prisoners and nursing home residents. Hope that enough people, but not too many, voluntarily begin to evacuate today. I would be leaving today because traffic is going to be a nightmare in 1-2 days.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:05 am to OldSouth
Holy shite look at that thing. What a beast.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:06 am to jdd48
quote:
From what I've read, it's fairly routine to fly into a hurricane because it's mostly horizontal winds that don't affect the plane all that much. It's vertical winds that cause turbulence.
But I thought if you were to slice a hurricane in half and look into it, there are breaks of crazy down forcing winds (cold air)?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:07 am to jlc05
quote:
How well did the models perform with Katrina?
That was 2005. Compare your cell phone to the one you had then.
Weather models have imrpove a lot since then thanks to research of storms and increased computing power to allow higher resolution in the blocks of atmosphere modeled. They are still models, and not perfect.
And fwiw, the GFDL actually picked up on the SW movement pretty early. Before Katrina hit Miami it had her cutting a little south of west over the Everglades and with the steering suggested by other models definitely had a Louisiana landfall as a decent possibility as the SW track was confirmed. It was just alone in the wilderness for a while and the NHC wisely hedged toward the better models but kept LA in the cone.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:08 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
I just remember leaving early Saturday morning to go fishing and wasn't really worried about it.
That was the last time I saw my house as I knew it until I got back in the city 2 weeks later
Yeah I'm not trying to be a dick, just pointing out Katrina stayed within the margin of error the whole time.
Intensity forecasting is another story.
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:08 am to Duke
Blackberry GOAT
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:10 am to colorchangintiger
quote:
I would think today you would need to start moving prisoners and nursing home residents. Hope that enough people, but not too many, voluntarily begin to evacuate today. I would be leaving today because traffic is going to be a nightmare in 1-2 days.
For the entire state of Florida?
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:10 am to slackster
Was Katrina a Cat 3 when it hit? I saw where someone here said Cat 5
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:11 am to jdd48
quote:
it's fairly routine to fly into a hurricane because it's mostly horizontal winds that don't affect the plane all that much.
This is a problem, main reason is if the runways are N/S but the winds are E/W, that means landing and take offs need to be spaced out much more since the plane essentially lands at a 90* angle until it hits the runway. Normally above about 50 or 60mph the airports will severely delay everything, plus with a hurricane the winds are constantly shifting, meaning even if the winds are out of the SE for several hours, they can shift to the NE and screw up air traffic patterns for runway swaps
Posted on 9/5/17 at 9:12 am to LanierSpots
quote:You just added 5 pages of arguing to this thread.
Was Katrina a Cat 3 when it hit? I saw where someone here said Cat 5
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