re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072018
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 03 2018

...DISTURBANCE LIKELY TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TODAY...
...BRINGING HEAVY RAINS TO PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 80.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from the Alabama-Florida border westward to
east of Morgan City, Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mississippi-Alabama border westward to the Mouth of the
Mississippi River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border westward to east of Morgan City, Louisiana,
including Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

Interests in the Florida Keys and the southern Florida peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.5 North, longitude 80.2 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and a westward-northwestward
to northwestward motion is expected over the next 48 hours. On the
forecast track, the disturbance will pass over the Florida Keys or
the southern portion of the Florida peninsula this morning, move
over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico later today evening, and
reach the central Gulf Coast by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight.

Conditions appear to be conducive for development, and this system
is expected to become a tropical cyclone by tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Destin Florida to the Mississippi-Alabama border...1 to 2 ft.
Mississippi-Alabama border to the Mouth of Mississippi River...2 to
4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to the Louisiana-Texas border...1 to
2 ft.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the
relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary
greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain
accumulations of 2 to 4 inches over the central and northwestern
Bahamas, the Florida Keys, and South Florida through early Tuesday.
Isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches are possible over the southern
Florida peninsula. This rainfall may cause flooding. The
disturbance is expected to produce heavy rainfall along the central
Gulf Coast of the United States by the middle of the week.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of
the warning area by late Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts
will be possible today across portions of South Florida and the
Florida Keys.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

quote:

---

My money is on the more easterly tracks. It seems to most always play out that way.

---

My original post quoted above got a lot of downvotes but it's only 7 hours later and the track has already shifted significantly to the east. As I said it most often seems to happen that way.

quote:

---

My original post above got a lot of downvotes

---

I don’t think it’s shifted east at landfall as much as they are predicted a more northerly track after landfall. And by that I mean NNW more than WNW.

I'm not sure if it's because our attention was on the game last night, or because this storm is not expected to get really strong, but this is one of the most lackluster tropical weather threads I can remember.

quote:

---

Weather Channel quoting NHC officially TS Gordon.

---

Dave Baker just said it so it must be true.

quote:

---

Has it really shifted east though?

---

Yes it has. At the time of my original post the track was just over the west side of Baton Rouge. Look at it now.

Miami radar shows the system over land, far north of the middle keys where it was supposed to be.

I'd imagine this would portend more shifts east.