re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

00z Early Cycle Tracks



Shear is still low over the system and convection is firing again, it is common to see these cycles of pulsing convection with developing systems.

Give it to us straight. What’s your thoughts. Landfall, movement after, and intensity at landfall.

Nobody will be mad at you for saying what you think may happen.

What do you base this on?

Look at most any predictions 3 days out. These tracks always shift to the East.

I hear what you are saying but the track philosophy is actually pretty easy on this one. It will continue to be steered by a High pressure over the mid Atlantic which will steer this west-northwest to Northwest.

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Look at most any predictions 3 days out. These tracks always shift to the East.

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quote:

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Look at most any predictions 3 days out. These tracks always shift to the East.

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This one won't shift east much.

There's a high over the Carolinas. It's going to stay there. It's going to push the storm NW toward Louisiana/Mississippi.

Weather Channel idiots handwringing over 3 inches of rain from this...

Is that supposed to be per hour? Otherwise, this isn't going to be much of anything.

Euro places a pretty powerful hurricane dangerously close to east coast at 240 hours out. Thought that was interesting.



Looks like they're going to have several lows coming off Africa that will need to be watched next few weeks. Already 1 right behind Florence.

I know we are still days out, but with that path you better hope it doesn’t intensify.