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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:56 pm to deuce985
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:56 pm to deuce985
Theres always one or two assholes that don't follow the crowd and ruins the party for everyone.
Looking at the two squiggly fellows trying to get into the gulf.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 3:59 pm
2
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:57 pm to slackster
I love the TABD that would be ideal for anyone
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:58 pm to slackster
quote:
quote:
Alright, as of today, if I lived in the red area, I would leave town by tomorrow. If I lived in the yellow area, I would pay very close attention over the next day or so and make a final decision at that point. If you're in a situation with little kids or something, I'd prepare to leave, but otherwise I'd be making preparations to stay.
Spot on. Anyone from Awendaw, SC and north needs to GTFO.
Just landed finally in CHS and upon turning the phone on I see McMaster has ordered the entire evac of the coast.
I'm going to stick around and see what tomorrow looks like and the traffic clears. Charleston will be ok from what I've seen come across the desk and work emails between the state disaster office. The whole city is going to flood more so than Juaquin, Matthew, and Irma. Not quite Hugo status though.
Cape Fear to Cape Lookout will not exist as it is now in our lifetimes.
In the geologic record you can see when storms like this have impacted the coast and what they've done. This one will be a "reflector" in the seismic data for generations of geophysicist that are imaging below the seafloor.
In layman's terms, whenever a singular event is seen in the geologic record, it means shite hit the fan.
My company just spent 3 months doing an engineering survey off the coast of VA Beach. Suffice to say, we can throw that away and start over in October
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:58 pm to lsuman25
Perhaps if the disturbance in the Caribbean can get stronger than forecast the ridge might not be as strong?
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:59 pm to NYNolaguy1
For those in central VA, do shopping now. The Kroger I went to is already out of water.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:59 pm to Hat Tricks
quote:
Problem is I have to commit to this by tomorrow around noon when my flight leaves out of Shreveport headed for Greenville.
That's easy. You don't fly INTO soon-to-be disaster areas unless you're emergency/recovery personnel or you're Chuck Norris.
Or Batman. You can go if you're Batman.
You're not Batman.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 4:03 pm
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:59 pm to lsuman25
Posted on 9/10/18 at 3:59 pm to deuce985
quote:
Looking like some models are trying to slip it underneath the ridge to turn north?
That would be great
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:00 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Notably, the aircraft data also show the size
of the hurricane-force winds has doubled in the past 12 hours.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:01 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:Yes, wind field is a very significant factor in determining storm surge, maybe bigger than intensity. This storm may have the intensity but may not have the size to rival the storm surge of some of the worst storms in history.
There is a difference between a Cat 3 who was never more than a 3, and a Cat 3 that has spent recent time being a Cat 4/5, when it come to storm surge and extend of wind field.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:01 pm to NYNolaguy1
Euro sticking firm to their guns on Isaac moving westward eventually dying somewhere in caribbean. GFS thinks it's going to turn north.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:02 pm to deuce985
Wilmington NC still in the bullseye.
Between water backing up from storm runoff to the storm surge incoming they are going to get it from both ends.
Between water backing up from storm runoff to the storm surge incoming they are going to get it from both ends.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:08 pm to lsuman25
What are the chances this goes to a category 5 before it makes landfall
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:12 pm to dawgfan24348
quote:
What are the chances this goes to a category 5 before it makes landfall
I'd say 55% (source: my arse), since the NHC disco makes it out just at Cat 5 (forecast points max at 155 mph though). It's almost certainly not going to be a Cat 5 at landfall.
Note, if it does hit 5 status, it'll be the farthest north of any Cat 5 on record bya fair margin.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:13 pm to Duke
quote:
(source: my arse)
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:17 pm to slackster
quote:
It's probably going to be between a strong 3 and a 5
So a Cat 4
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:17 pm to lsuman25
When a forecast discussion begins with:
that's not a good sign.
quote:
Unfortunately, the models were right
that's not a good sign.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:18 pm to dawgfan24348
quote:
What are the chances this goes to a category 5 before it makes landfall
Seems like it's all but a certainty.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:18 pm to MountainTiger
what is maintained is the question. it's gonna be a cat 5 by tonight/tomorrow.
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