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Started By
Message
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:38 pm to Quidam65
quote:
that's not a good sign
That is certainly not a good sign. When atypical phrases are used in official updates, it is a bad, bad sign.
I’m sure most of us remember the Katrina warnings. I haven’t seen anything like those updates before or since.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 4:40 pm
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:39 pm to Azazello
quote:
Decision has been made, we are packing up and hitting the road early tomorrow morning.

Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:41 pm to Scoop
I was just about to say they need to write up some Katrina-esque warnings/advisories for this one.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:43 pm to deltaland
quote:
It's probably going to be between a strong 3 and a 5
That's like saying a storm is going to make landfall between LA and AL =)
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:44 pm to Azazello
quote:
Being stuck w no power for days with an infant could be terrible
Being stuck with no power for days WITHOUT an infant is terrible.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:46 pm to LaBR4
When we evac'd for Katrina, myself and my fiance stayed at my dad's house a few hours away. We told my fiance's parents to come stay there too, they said no, they would rather stay at a hotel, since they found a hotel "with a generator".
Apparently the "generator" powered some emergency lights, the key card system, and a couple of computers used to run the hotel. That's it.
Apparently the "generator" powered some emergency lights, the key card system, and a couple of computers used to run the hotel. That's it.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:46 pm to Scoop
Before reading, note that this is the KATRINA warning.
Provided for context as the warnings for Florence are starting to use non-playbook wording already.
quote:
WWUS74 KLIX 281550 NPWLIX URGENT — WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28, 2005 ...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED... HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH... RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969. MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE. HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK. POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS. THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED. AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!
Provided for context as the warnings for Florence are starting to use non-playbook wording already.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:46 pm to Scoop
quote:
That is certainly not a good sign. When atypical phrases are used in official updates, it is a bad, bad sign. I’m sure most of us remember the Katrina warnings. I haven’t seen anything like those updates before or since.
This!!!
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:47 pm to Duke
quote:
Duke
quote:I think it's time to start a new, fresh thread about Florence with latest graphs and evacuation, state of emergency, supplies, etc. information that can be stickied. My guess is that this is the reason they have not stickied this thread. I think one of you should start it, as you post the latest graphics. I'll start looking for the other information if that would be helpful.
rds dc
ETA: I can start the thread and keep updating the OP as rds and duke post the models and info?
I started a similar thread for Harvey, if this is helpful for an outline. Something like this but with weather information would be awesome.
Harvey Resources
I would do something like:
1. Latest trajectories
2. Helpful model links
3. Links to Twitter resources for most up-to-date info
4. Links to news articles with helpful information
5. Links to local government resources
6. Shelter information as it becomes available
7. Direct resource information as it becomes available
8. Rescue information if it comes to that
9. Phone numbers for the above resources separated out for quick reference
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 4:54 pm
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:47 pm to thesoccerfanjax
quote:
Lots of people get ocean front hotels here during hurricanes. Guess they figure it’s safer than their house and more amenities should things go really bad.
Lots of people used to stay in downtown NOLA highrise hotels during storms as well, until Katrina blew out all the windows at the Hyatt.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:48 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
Yeah you never hear about any accidents so it can't be as crazy as it sounds. Didn't they used to fly in C-130's? I wonder if the smaller but faster bizjet is better than the old turboprops.
They still use 130s. WC-130J's to be exact. They are tough planes. I'm missing my MCs right now!
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:50 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
Didn't they used to fly in C-130's? I wonder if the smaller but faster bizjet is better than the old turboprops.
NOAA flies the G-IV for high altitude sampling of the air above and around the storm to get a feel for the steering and environment around the storm. It's not tough enough to go into the storm, so when NOAA is penetrating the storm, they use the WP-3, a modified P-3 Orion.
The Air Force's Weather Reconnaissance planes are all...
C-130s!
If you want to go where it's tough, you send a tough plane. Turboprop driven sky-tanks are the way to go.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:51 pm to Scoop
GOESEAST satellite imagery of Florence’s eye.
This post was edited on 9/10/18 at 4:51 pm
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:51 pm to PhilemonThomas
The only thing in the Katrina warning that didn’t come to fruition was the high rise collapses but that was probably thanks to the wobble.
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:53 pm to DuckManiak
quote:
At least it’s not Peej saying it.
Peej Hurricane Forecast 2018

Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:56 pm to Prominentwon
That is devastatingly beautiful. 
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:57 pm to MountainTiger
quote:
The History of the Hurricane Hunters
Hurricane Hunting started on a dare in the middle of World War II, when Lt Col Joe Duckworth took an AT-6 Texan training aircraft into the eye of a hurricane. Our squadron traces its heritage back over 50 years, to the 3rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, Air Route, Medium on August 7, 1944. From the very beginning, the squadron began a globe-trotting tradition, with aircraft spread from Canada to Florida to the Azores.
v
B-17 FLYING FORTRESS
The Fortress was the most often requested aircraft for weather reconnaissance in WWII. In Sept. 1945, the 53rd was the first squadron to intentionally fly a B-17 into a hurricane. Hurricanes soon became their primary mission, and henceforth the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron has been known as the Hurricane Hunters. v
v
The scattering of the squadron's planes around the globe was required by the very nature of the responsibilities assigned to the organization. During this early period, the unit scouted the weather over large geographical areas: remember, this was in the days before satellites! Day after day, squadron planes collected data which were transmitted to weather stations for use in preparing forecasts required for the Air Force and the U.S. Weather Bureau.
v
v
WB-25 MITCHELL
A medium bomber, the Mitchell saw more different types of missions than any other army aircraft in World War II. One such unusual mission started in 1944, when four B-25s were assigned to the "Army Hurricane Reconnaissance Unit", a forerunner of today's Hurricane Hunters.
v
In addition to its routine reconnaissance work, the 53rd also flew many missions to collect data in hurricanes. It eventually acquired the nickname, "Hurricane Hunters," which was painted on the unit's aircraft and buildings. Hurricane missions were flown by the 53rd during the dangerous seasons of 1946 and 1947, and again during the 1951-54 hurricane seasons. In these post-World War II years, a national plan to collect hurricane warning information was gradually evolved by the Air Force, Navy, and the Weather Bureau.
The U.S. Weather Bureau began an around-the-clock hurricane warning service on June 16, 1947. All tropical storms and hurricanes were given alphabetical names (Able, Baker, Charlie, etc.) beginning with the 1947 season for internal identification in the Weather Bureau. These names were issued to the public during the 1950-52 hurricane seasons and were later given the names of women beginning in 1953.
During 1947, the 53rd conducted an experiment (in cooperation with the Weather Bureau) in which particles of dry ice were sprayed into the clouds associated with a hurricane. The experiment was conducted to determine whether the particles would diminish the intensity of the storm. The results were not conclusive.
After 1947, the Navy performed reconnaissance in the Caribbean while the 53rd tracked hurricanes in the West Central Atlantic. The squadron only survived for a few years in the post-war drawdown, and was inactivated for nearly three and a half years.
v
WB-29 Superfortress
Weather reconnaissance got a big boost when it inherited surplus bombers after WWII. This was the Air Force's largest aircraft, and in 1950, became the first to be designated with a "W" for weather service. The 53rd scored other "firsts" with the Superfortress: in 1946, it was the first to fly into the top of a hurricane, at 22,000 feet (tops of clouds 36,000 feet).
v
v
The squadron came back to life on February 21, 1951, in Bermuda. After the majority of the squadron moved to Burtonwood AFB, England, in February, 1954, one flight continued to operate from Bermuda until May, 1955.
In addition to its normal weather and hurricane reconnaissance roles, the 53rd remained active with a Christmas tradition that began in 1953. Since daily flights of the squadron extended to the far north, children of squadron personnel requested that their fathers take along letters to Santa Claus. The word of these deliveries spread and letters from all parts of Great Britain poured in to the 53rd in 1954. Beginning with the Christmas of 1955, letters from all parts of Western Europe came to the 53rd for delivery to Santa.
v
v WB-50 SUPERFORTRESS
By 1955, the WB-29s had a lot of corrosion and were replaced by the WB-50. It looked very similar to the WB-29, except its 3500-horsepower engines required a larger tail to stabilize it, so the WB-50 was five feet taller. It could also fly 850 miles further. The WB-50 had an important role during the Cuban Missile Crisis, when it
monitored the weather around Cuba to plan photo-reconnaissance flights. Although weather flying was considered a "peacetime" mission, the aging WB-50s took their toll, and claimed 66 lives in 13 accidents over their 10-year history in weather.
v
The 53rd is no stranger to restructuring and reductions in force. On March 18, 1960, the Air Force discontinued the squadron for a year and a half. The nomadic squadron rose again in Kindley Field, Bermuda, soon moved to Georgia for several years, and then set up shop in Puerto Rico for seven years.
v
WB-47 STRATOJET
This was the only jet to fly the hurricane mission, certainly higher and faster than any aircraft in our inventory. It flew for 10 years, from 1963-73. However, fast is not necessarily better in hurricane work; just as you slow down to drive over a speed bump, aircraft are flown as slow as possible in turbulence. For that reason, the WB-47 v
could not penetrate the interior of a hurricane, but skirted the edges of the storm.
v
After Hurricane Camille devastated the Gulf Coast in 1969, congressmen began work to bring the Hurricane Hunters closer to the Coast. In 1973, the squadron moved to their current home, Keesler Air Force Base, Mississippi.
v
v
WC-130 Hercules
The venerable C-130 Hercules first joined weather recce in 1963. At last, using this sturdy, pressurized aircraft, crews could penetrate a hurricane without getting soaked by the heavy rain! The "B" and "E" models of the WC-130 flew many years, and the "H" model continues to fly today. These "Herks" are now over 30 years old, but have proved to be the most dependable of all the aircraft in the pages of weather history.
v
In 1975, a new contender in the exclusive "hurricane hunting" mission arrived: the Air Force Reserve! The 815th Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, "Storm Trackers" was born from a tactical airlift squadron just down the street from the 53rd, and soon both units were sharing the bulk of the hurricane missions (with NOAA flying a few of the storms as well). They soon became well-respected counterparts to the active-duty 53rd.
v v
The 53rd finally succumbed to budget cuts in 1991, and the Air Force Reserve picked up the entire hurricane hunting mission. The 815th temporarily became a dual-hatted squadron, and flew both storm and tactical airlift (cargo) missions. By 1993, however, the unit split into two squadrons, at which time the tactical airlift squadron reverted to the 815th TAS Flying Jennies. The weather squadron resurrected the 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, and now proudly carries on the tradition as the Hurricane Hunters.
LINK
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:58 pm to thesoccerfanjax
quote:
Lots of people get ocean front hotels here during hurricanes. Guess they figure it’s safer than their house and more amenities should things go really bad.
The surge from a storm like this will destroy any ocean front hotel. They’d be retarded to stay there
Posted on 9/10/18 at 4:59 pm to TigerstuckinMS
quote:
If you want to go where it's tough, you send a tough plane. Turboprop driven sky-tanks are the way to go.
One of my good friends growing up...their dad was Commander of the 53d Weather Recon Squad.
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