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re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential

Posted on 9/7/18 at 9:44 am to
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43292 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 9:44 am to
We have Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 near the Cabo Verde Islands.
Posted by rt3
now in the piney woods of Pineville
Member since Apr 2011
147072 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 9:48 am to
quote:

We have Potential Tropical Cyclone 8 near the Cabo Verde Islands.

I assume that the Cabo Verde Islands have some kind of watches/warnings

ETA: yep

quote:

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE
ISLANDS...
This post was edited on 9/7/18 at 9:50 am
Posted by CidCock
Member since Sep 2007
Member since Feb 2011
8692 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:03 am to
quote:

I'd keep a close watch, especially if you've got interests in the lowcountry.



I hear ya.



Everything I'm seeing has the lowcountry a bit south of the cone, seems more like the Grand Strand being the southern end.

Obviously, this thing could change and hit Jacksonville.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:11 am to
Why's it so rare for storms to hit central america? Just curious. Is it geography?
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:11 am to
quote:

Everything I'm seeing has the lowcountry a bit south of the cone, seems more like the Grand Strand being the southern end.


The potential spread is still wide, and there's a reason the NHC cone goes out five days max. It's a good time for our coastal Georgia, SC, NC, and VA posters to think about your plan if a Cat 3 storm is to head your way next week.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102538 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:11 am to
quote:

The 6z GFS has a media hype machine type solution:


Right up Chesapeake bay into DC as a Cat 4. That would be interesting
Posted by PJinAtl
Atlanta
Member since Nov 2007
14403 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:19 am to
quote:

Right up Chesapeake bay into DC as a Cat 4. That would be interesting
Makes me think of a line in the Jason Boland song Sons and Daughters of Dixie...

"You bet they'd sing a different tune if a flood had hit D.C."
Posted by Klingler7
Houston
Member since Nov 2009
12620 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:32 am to
Looks like 92L and PTC8 will move into the central Atlantic per weakness in AB ridge.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:38 am to
quote:


Why's it so rare for storms to hit central america?


The earth's rotation. In the northern hemisphere, the path of the storm is naturally going to deflect toward the right. The only reason all storms dont just curve out to sea is the subtropical high that parks over the central Atlantic (Bermuda High). So for Central America, there has to be a high pressure in place blocking the paths north for the storm to end up in Central America.

Which is good, because when the do manage to hit down there, it's typically a human tragedy.
Posted by 50_Tiger
Arlington TX
Member since Jan 2016
43447 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:41 am to
quote:

Right up Chesapeake bay into DC as a Cat 4. That would be interesting



What's the elevation like over there?
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:47 am to
Yeah, I was curious as to why it did that. Makes sense. I remember they had one that hit down there back in like 06-07 and it devastated them. Even tropical storms seem to cause major death. It's crazy.
Posted by deuce985
Member since Feb 2008
27660 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:54 am to
Where are you seeing that at?

The models I've seen seem to mostly agree 92L is just going to drift westward for quite awhile.
This post was edited on 9/7/18 at 10:55 am
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21486 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 10:57 am to
94L has been activated and there is still potential for something in the Gulf that isn't currently on the board.

Euro EPS has been trying to sniff this out over the past few days, this wouldn't be current 92L but 95L(?)

Posted by PsychTiger
Member since Jul 2004
109128 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 11:04 am to
quote:

Florence has shifted due West now. US landfall looking more and more likely.


That bitch!!!
Posted by fatboydave
Fat boy land
Member since Aug 2004
17979 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 11:05 am to
quote:

94L has been activated and there is still potential for something in the Gulf that isn't currently on the board.

BHoooo
Posted by Jim Rockford
Member since May 2011
105234 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 11:07 am to
Are they talking about the blue or the purple?
Posted by Rox
Member since Oct 2010
33333 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 11:07 am to
Was it forecast to be a more active hurricane season this year?
Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30508 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 11:15 am to
It's always crazy to me how the season can be so quiet and then like a light switch being flipped it's game on
Posted by Pettifogger
I don't really care, Margaret
Member since Feb 2012
87261 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 11:16 am to
Is there some place other than NHC to find good satellite imagery of the storms further out in the Atlantic? Everything on NHC is so skewed that far out that you can't see the waves until they're much further along.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21486 posts
Posted on 9/7/18 at 11:28 am to
quote:

Is there some place other than NHC to find good satellite imagery


Try these:

NASA - LINK

COD - LINK
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