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Started By
Message
2
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:17 pm to 50_Tiger
You didn’t hear? It has to go southwest to go north.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:19 pm to CaptainJ47
quote:
So is that saying in 72 hours or basically Wednesday am that is near Jax?
You can walk farther than)
Dorian will move in the next 48 hours. You could nap along the way too.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:20 pm to ScaryClown
Holy frick balls up to 185
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:20 pm to ScaryClown
How much energy does it take and where is this energy coming from that’s gonna make this mass of wind/water make a 90 degree turn in the next 24 hours? Is the storm even moving fast enough (linearly) for this to happen?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:20 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Maybe a higher-level discussion for its own thread, but what is your opinion on storms of this magnitude creating its own steering environment?
I don't believe it's possible for it to create it's own steering environment per se however I don't believe there's enough historical data as to whether or not a storm of this strength can propel itself further forward against steering currents. Florida folks would be foolish to believe this thing won't hit them before it's forecasted turn north. Better safe than extremely sorry.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:21 pm to ScaryClown
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:22 pm to white perch
quote:
How much energy does it take and where is this energy coming from that’s gonna make this mass of wind/water make a 90 degree turn in the next 24 hours?
It's a feather in the wind for the things that steer hurricanes.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:22 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Maybe a higher-level discussion for its own thread, but what is your opinion on storms of this magnitude creating its own steering environment?
Been wondering about that too. There was a very powerful storm, Gilbert, (back in the 90's? ) that was forecast to turn north after it entered the Gulf of M. from the Caribbean.
It very slowly and persistently continued heading west during which time forecasters continued to predict a north turn all the way until it hit a relatively empty stretch of Mexico after crossing the entire Gulf of M. in a straight line.
Afterward forecasters attributed this error in their predictions to the massive overall size and strength of the storm negating the effect of external steering.
Or so I recall...
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:22 pm to NorthEndZone
quote:
HMON run shifted significantly toward the FL coast...
Same with HWRF.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:26 pm to Dick Jacket
quote:
Can the people in the know give a how screwed each population center is? Not holding anyone to predictions.
Abacos- 100%
WPB-
Titusville-
Daytona-
JAX-
Brunswick
Savannah
HHI
Charleston
Wilmington
Let's do this on a relative basis for now. If Abacos is 100%, the rest are sub 5%.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:27 pm to slackster
Should there be a Cat 6 category? 185+ is a huge departure from 157 mph
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:28 pm to theOG
quote:
People on wunderground are talking about a storm this size having the ability to control their own environment. They are citing Irma as an example. Hopefully this thing is steered out to see sooner than later.
Once again, that's not how it works. The environment controls the storm. That will never change.
ETA - in fact, it's the opposite. The weaker the storm the lesser they're influenced by intricate steering patterns.
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 12:29 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:28 pm to slackster
Stolen from 2k.
A lot of folks typically ask here the destruction question:
A lot of folks typically ask here the destruction question:
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:29 pm to Duke
quote:. Or possibly onto the Florida coast before turning?
This supports the idea he's going to get very close to the Florida coast on the north turn.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:31 pm to GetCocky11
quote:Predicted surge of 18'-23'. Stay on first floor and video surge.
GetCocky11
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:32 pm to slackster
quote:quote:
Can the people in the know give a how screwed each population center is? Not holding anyone to predictions.
Abacos- 100%
WPB-
Titusville-
Daytona-
JAX-
Brunswick
Savannah
HHI
Charleston
Wilmington
Let's do this on a relative basis for now. If Abacos is 100%, the rest are sub 5%.
aww man... should I bring back the butthole pucker factor from like 2 seasons ago?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:32 pm to Dick Jacket
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:33 pm to jlc05
quote:
Should there be a Cat 6 category? 185+ is a huge departure from 157 mph
Nah. The point of the Saffir-Simpson scale is to categorize storms based on their damage potential. Once you get to Cat 5, damage is devastating and near total. There's no practical difference in the damage 200 mph winds do versus 157 mph winds and the width of the eye isn't going to get suddenly larger, covering more area with the high winds. That's why I say there's no practical difference (though the power of the wind ABSOLUTELY goes up quickly with velocity): Destroyed is destroyed is destroyed.
Think of it this way: when a nuclear weapon goes off on top of your head and turns you into plasma, does it matter if it was a 15 kt device or a 150kt device?
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 12:35 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:33 pm to 50_Tiger
Should I trust a graph that can't spell category?
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