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Started By
Message
1
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:44 am to 50_Tiger
Perfect map to judge direction.
Show me the northerly component in Dorian.
He needs one soon if hes gonna miss FL.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:44 am to 50_Tiger
Flight level isn't quite matching up. I suspect that SFMR reading will be considered a little hot. I see 180 mph supported there. Case for 185 mph.
Now, as we get more recon data, I bet the support for higher winds will justify a push toward 190.
Now, as we get more recon data, I bet the support for higher winds will justify a push toward 190.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:45 am to 50_Tiger
You're right, that's a little south of west.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:45 am to 50_Tiger
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE ABACOS..
Location: 26.5°N 77.0°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 911 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
Location: 26.5°N 77.0°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 911 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:45 am to loogaroo
203! 
That is insane
That is insane
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:46 am to LSUFootballLover
quote:
763
WTNT65 KNHC 011644
TCUAT5
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).
This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.
Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.
SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:46 am to LSUFootballLover
Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).
This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.
Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.
SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
1245 pm EDT Sun Sep 01 2019
...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...
Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).
This is a life-threatening situation. Residents there should take
immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if it passes over
your location.
Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas
and will continue for several hours.
SUMMARY OF 1245 PM EDT...1645 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...911 MB...26.90 INCHES
$$
Forecaster Avila/Blake
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:47 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
He needs one soon if hes gonna miss FL.
No he doesn't, he's going to slow down. This supports the idea he's going to get very close to the Florida coast on the north turn.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:47 am to cajunangelle
Still appears slightly jogging a bit southwest.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:48 am to 50_Tiger
Are there any storm surge maps for the eye staying just off shore? That would be interesting to see.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:49 am to cajunangelle
New Plymouth is about 10 miles NW of the eyewall based on radar images. That surge is not even close to what will happen when the center gets to the west of there in a few hours.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:49 am to BigHoss
As of 11:00 AM, Hurricane Dorian continues “to show no signs of weakening, with frequent lightning still ongoing in its eyewall, indicative of strengthening. Over the last several hours, Dorian’s peak winds from 260 KM/H to 285 KM/H and its pressure dropped a significant 14 millibars between 8:00 AM and 11:00 AM.”
WOW
WOW
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:49 am to rds dc
can someone explain why wilma had the same wind speed as dorian but was 882mb and dorian is 911mb
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:49 am to Duke
Hope you’re right
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:49 am to Duke
Well lets hope that happens.
Guy over at 2k plotted the recon flights and came to the conclusion he's movine 263 deg @ 8mph
Guy over at 2k plotted the recon flights and came to the conclusion he's movine 263 deg @ 8mph
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:49 am to antibarner
I upvoted you. WTF ? GIF was a joke in disbelief. Some other little bitch is downvoting
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:50 am to LegendInMyMind
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:50 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Show me the northerly component in Dorian.
He needs one soon if hes gonna miss FL.
Don't forget that it hasn't stalled yet and is not expected to continue moving forward at the speed it is now. I think the prediction is for it to still be in between Florida and the Bahamas on TUESDAY before it finally fricks off and starts heading North.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:50 am to 50_Tiger
quote:
Perfect map to judge direction.
Show me the northerly component in Dorian.
He needs one soon if hes gonna miss FL.
It's not supposed to start turning north until Monday morning. Heading due west is what it's predicted to be doing all day today.
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