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Message
re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:51 am to HubbaBubba
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:51 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
Still appears slightly jogging a bit southwest.
Which is what most show it doing before the slowdown and then northward shift. Usually the northward trend starts around that hook on the island next to Freeport.
1
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:54 am to St Augustine
quote:Yes, but the GFS had Dorian going just north of the Bahamas, so this is more westerly than previously considered though. Will it miss the window by taking a more west/southwest route?
Which is what most show it doing before the slowdown and then northward shift. Usually the northward trend starts around that hook on the island next to Freeport.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:54 am to TigerstuckinMS
Does Dorian claim the title for slowest moving Hurricane to the U.S. Coastline? Or through the Caribbean? I know Betsy made a loop, but I can't recall any taking so long. He should have been a New England rain-maker by now!
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:56 am to CookieTiger
Has it gone thru and eyewall replacement?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:56 am to CookieTiger
Florence was slow moving
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:56 am to CookieTiger
What?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:57 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
Will it miss the window by taking a more west/southwest route?
No. The question is how close Dorian gets to the mainland before the turn.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 11:59 am to Duke
That is scary. It’s a buzzsaw right now.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:00 pm to Capt ST
quote:
Has it gone thru and eyewall replacement?
No.
There's an interesting discussion going on concerning how the west side of Dorian has been a little squeezed for most of this run toward Florida and how that could keep the outer band from building enough to serve to actually wrap around a outer eyewall. The details are above all of our (well maybe not rds) heads, but it seems to make sense.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:00 pm to Duke
Any annular discussions? 
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:02 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
Any annular discussions?
It's funny because it's been discussed as kind of "quasi-annular". It's definitely not annular, but also acting like an annular cane.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:02 pm to 50_Tiger
Someone posted here that 1500 lineman were sent home from Florida. Maybe they should not have been??
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:05 pm to tiger91
quote:
Someone posted here that 1500 lineman were sent home from Florida. Maybe they should not have been??
I know some Encore baws left TX this week, idky FL folks are getting really relaxed with this.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:07 pm to Duke
FWIW the new HMON run shifted significantly toward the FL coast...
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:07 pm to Duke
Maybe a higher-level discussion for its own thread, but what is your opinion on storms of this magnitude creating its own steering environment?
This post was edited on 9/1/19 at 12:10 pm
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:12 pm to 50_Tiger
You can see the penny looping around the eyewall
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:14 pm to 50_Tiger
quote:
what is your opinion on storms of this magnitude creating its own steering environment?
In my opinion, it's not so much they "create" their own steering but all the latent heat a big storm like this releases can influence the steering mechanisms. It can serve to "pump" a steering ridge and have it breakdown slower for example (though, note the outflow is mostly going SE for Dorian. So not sure it's doing much for this steering ridge).
They also can produce a diabatic ridge in their wake. They can help to enhance the outflow, which pumps them up more to further enhance the outflow. Helps a storm get stronger (Dorian is a great example of this. Look for the clockwise movement on WV to the SE of Dorian and how the outflow is rushing that direction) which can have it feel different steering at higher levels of the atmosphere.
More of an influence than just create it's own, because if it could create it's own...it'd just go north then NE.
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:14 pm to HubbaBubba
quote:dude it isn’t gonna hit anyone. You’re just as bad as the weather channel hoping for some drama that won’t happen
Yes, but the GFS had Dorian going just north of the Bahamas, so this is more westerly than previously considered though. Will it miss the window by taking a more west/southwest route?
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:14 pm to 50_Tiger
Posted on 9/1/19 at 12:15 pm to Duke
Thank you for your always valuable information Duke! 
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