re: Hurricane Dorian - Headed to Canada

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Maybe. Yes, there are a lot of dollars being spent on generators, plywood, batteries, and spam. But in the long run, these dollars are just being shifted to hurricane prep from where they would have been spent.

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Exactly. It's called the broken window fallacy. Natural disasters are a net zero, at best. They just shift dollars, they don't create more of them.

Omg fricking stop

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6z Euro is slower than the 00z, but still shows signs of missing Florida. The 12z run will be interesting.

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Isn't the next update due in about 13 minutes?

HWRF Ensembles have shown some of the farther west tracks but it has started to shift eastward and has reduced the spread over the last few runs.



The UK Ensembles have been pretty steady but did shift back west a bit from 00z to 06z, same with the Euro EPS.

00z



06z



00z Euro EPS



06z Euro EPS



Overall, these shifts in the UK and Euro ensembles might be little more than model noise but farther shifts at 12z would raise some eyebrows for Florida.

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Hurricane Hunters found a 138 knot or 158 mph surface wind to the north of the eye. We'll see if that one reading is enough for them to pull the trigger on Cat 5.

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Enough for TWC or enough for NHC? You know the answer.

944mb should support that

His eye is about 15-20nmi wide if im eyeballing the doppler image NOAA posted.

Just passed a little convoy of FEMA vehicles headed to the coast.

...DORIAN'S FURY AIMING AT THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 31
Location: 26.0°N 73.4°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 945 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

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Man that thing is just gonna stall as a cat 4 or 5 over the Bahamas for 3 days. Nightmare

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yeah... some of the Bahama islands are about to cease to exist