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re: How are these restaurants and hotels going to be able to reopen?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:58 pm to LSUFanHouston
Posted on 4/13/20 at 1:58 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
Through July 31...
So until then, it's going to be an issue.
It will but that's not that long. I wouldn't expect to just flip on a switch and have everything back to normal. The economy as a whole will be in a rough spot for a while. Restaurants will not be at 100% by August 1st. Even still, some will offer to pay more, or offer benefits that aren't included with UI. Others will pay cash under the table.
Unfortunately, there's bias selection in how relief came in the form of unemployment insurance. A lot of good employees missed out on the benefit because they're going to keep the best ones and shed the others. The ones that got let go are getting paid more oddly enough.
0
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:00 pm to uway
quote:
I think the additional unemployment benefits will create a short-term increase in wages and pricing in the service industry.
Occupancy probably mirrors airline load factors.
Airlines are seeing 10% of normal traffic.
There won’t be a need for more workers for, what could be months. And if they’ve slashed rates, which I assume most have, they won’t be in a position to absorb higher labor costs.
I assume you’ll see high unemployment in the industry for a while. It took the hotel industry three years to normalize after the housing crisis. The impact of this closure will certainly be worse.
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The industry, at the low end, does compete with welfare for labor. You’ll see employees working part time to ensure they don’t lose whatever subsidy they get from the state. And you certainly see people stay out of the job market, because it doesn’t make economic sense.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 2:09 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:16 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
The weather is perfect to sit out on a patio right now too.
Would be a mighty FINE day to be on the Superior Highland patio today
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:28 pm to uway
quote:
I think the additional unemployment benefits will create a short-term increase in wages and pricing in the service industry.
My evidence for this is Econ 101.
ECON 101 also tells me that if restaurants raise prices in order to pay higher wages, demand will suffer, which will result in more closures, and an eventual suppression of wages.
The problem is, artificially high unemployment benefits aren't accounted for in the economics cycle.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:52 pm to LSUFanHouston
Hell, the big question is how are some hotels even staying open. One of my neighbors is head of security at a major hotel in downtown N.O. that has over 300 rooms. I talked to him 4 days ago and he said they have 4 room rented out for this past weekend.
Staff is down to bare minimums-----no kitchen help since the restaurant is close, bars shut down so no bartenders, only a couple housekeepers to keep up with things right now. They are losing a shite ton of money a day just staying open for business with utilities alone.
Staff is down to bare minimums-----no kitchen help since the restaurant is close, bars shut down so no bartenders, only a couple housekeepers to keep up with things right now. They are losing a shite ton of money a day just staying open for business with utilities alone.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 2:57 pm to LSUFanHouston
Look those unemployment numbers only last for 4 months.... When that 600 bucks from the Fed ends and they are drawing 95 bucks a week they will go back...
Posted on 4/13/20 at 3:02 pm to LSUFanHouston
A friend of mine owns a pretty large restaurant and has a large staff. He’s managed to give them all work, granted at a reduced amount of hours. He has only had 2 or 3 people quit and with the subsidy he’s going to get from the government for his payroll, he’s not going to have any trouble going straight back to normal operations when given the all clear.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 3:33 pm to SippyCup
quote:
When employers begin to hire staff back and they refuse, it is the equivalent of quitting. The employer must then submit another notice of separation and benefits should cease.
Did that employer furlough or lay off?
Posted on 4/13/20 at 3:35 pm to Chuckiee
quote:
Now, does LWC audit that and follow-up with those places and ask them of Chuckiee did actually fill out an application? What do you think?
Not a chance in hell they're doing that right now.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 4:25 pm to whoa
That requirement has been suspended
Posted on 4/13/20 at 4:29 pm to LSUFanHouston
quote:
LSUFanHouston
quote:
When JBE gives the "most-clear", he needs to give it a 2 week period, and the reinstate the "actively looking for work" requirement for unemployment.
That's going to be key. Turning off the work search requirement with Louisiana's system is the big deal. The Louisiana Workforce Commission shifted to an all-online system where it forces you to input your resume and job history into their system when you file. Luckily you only have to do this once. LOL. It remembers it forever afterwards.
From there, it automatically lines you up with job interviews and job listings. If you do not follow-through with them, it will automatically suspend your benefits, requiring you to call in or go to the local office.
At which point they tell you that the reason you're off the gravy train is that you didn't take the job that they offered you. It's designed to eliminate the bullshite sham of three work searches people used to have to call in that never got checked. Ever. Meaning everyone stayed on Unemployment for close to six months that had no ambition in life.
But those low-skill/low-wage employees will get the bum's rush off of Unemployment IF they reinstate the Work Search Requirement.
Knowing JBE and the current head of the LWC, I am not confident this will be instituted.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 4:30 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:
I think a lot of people are just itching to get out the house and eat at a restaurant.
People will bombard restaurants once we open up
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:23 pm to whoa
quote:
This is more than likely what will happen.
Like that matters. Don't you have to apply for like 1 job a week to meet that requirement?
Three minutes on a jobsite board applying for jobs as airline surgeons in Tasmania would do the trick.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:34 pm to gumbo2176
quote:
They are losing a shite ton of money a day just staying open for business with utilities alone.
For some period of time, it's cheaper to stay fully operational with no revenue than to shut down and then pay to get back up to operational later.
For instance, let's say it costs you X dollars to stay open for a month with no tenants and it costs you 4X dollars to close the doors and then prepare to reopen at some later time. If you expect to have no tenants for only 3 months, you leave the doors open and eat the cost. If you expect to be closed 5, you lock the doors and then pay to get ready to reopen down the road. It's simplified, but that's the general idea.
Large commercial buildings require ongoing costs in maintenance and utilities to keep things in good working order, keep mold at bay, keep everything in a "ready for business" state of cleanliness, etc. and it's very expensive to get a building back into a working state once you let it get into disrepair. They are doing this kind of math in this situation to decide if they need to keep the doors open, or shut everything down to the minimum needed and repair/clean later.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 5:36 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:38 pm to Double Oh
quote:
People will bombard restaurants once we open up
I don't really see this for some reason. I don't think they'll be totally empty, but I don't see a mad dash either. No idea why I think that - I just do.
I guess I feel like older folks will still be a bit apprehensive. Honestly, the daily patio happy hours at home + watching my savings account grow rapidly has given me a new perspective on my previous bar/restaurant habits.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:40 pm to LSUFanHouston
They make $2/hr and the rest cash. They won't be claiming the cash. Double dipping on unemployment and working for tips.
This post was edited on 4/13/20 at 5:42 pm
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:42 pm to LSUFanHouston
That’s the problem when you pay people more to not work than work.
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:44 pm to LouisianaLady
quote:
I don't really see this for some reason. I don't think they'll be totally empty, but I don't see a mad dash either. No idea why I think that - I just do.
yeah LL I agree with you. Restaurants, their waitstaff and employees will be following new guidelines. You're going to see less tables....tables spaced out....face-mask on anyone handling your food....less human to human contact and exchanges.
Things will not just go back to the way they were before.
Health Dept will come down on restaurants...so get ready
Posted on 4/13/20 at 5:52 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Things will not just go back to the way they were before.
Forever or until a proven vaccine is developed?
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