re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

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No matter which one of those spaghetti models are correct,

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Big bend is the least populated coastal area of Florida. I suppose that’s the best place for it to hit if it must hit. I hate it for the people it does effect.
I am in no way wishcasting it on them.

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Big bend is the least populated coastal area of Florida

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Is time for the sticky since it is PTC with a cone now?

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I still have a feeling of dread that its going to turn more than they show and hit us from the back in NEFL

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Ida came right over the top of my house as a cat 3 2,200 dollars damage would have been about two years of insurance payments the deductale would have cost more.

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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

A broad area of low pressure over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
some mid-level rotation is evident in visible satellite images,
surface observations and visible satellite images suggest the
low-level circulation remains broad and farther to the southwest.
Nonetheless, the system has a high chance of tropical cyclone
formation during the next day or two, and it is likely to bring
tropical storm conditions to land areas within the next 36 to
48 hours. Therefore, the NHC is initiating Potential Tropical
Cyclone advisories for this disturbance.

The initial motion is quite uncertain given the current lack of
organization, but the best estimate is northward at about 5 kt. A
gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next day or
so, with the center passing through the Yucatan Channel and into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Thereafter, the system is forecast to
accelerate northward across the eastern Gulf of Mexico within the
flow between a digging deep-layer trough over the central United
States and a ridge over the western Atlantic. This motion should
bring the center of the system toward the northeastern Gulf Coast on
Thursday. The track guidance agrees reasonably well on this
scenario, and the initial NHC forecast lies near the simple and
corrected consensus aids. Since the disturbance currently lacks a
well-defined center, users are reminded that the average forecast
track uncertainty is larger in these situations, and future track
adjustments may be required. Given the large size of the
tropical-storm-force wind field and fast forward speed that is
forecast, storm surge, wind, and rainfall impacts will likely extend
well away from the center, particularly to the east of the system.

While the system is currently broad and not well organized, the
models suggest a more well-defined center should develop during the
next day or so. Once the system becomes better organized and
develops an inner core, the environmental and oceanic conditions
appear favorable for significant strengthening. In fact, the DTOPS
statistical guidance shows a 95 percent chance of a 65-kt increase
in intensity during the next 72 h, and the hurricane regional models
highlight the potential for strengthening to major hurricane
intensity. Thus, the NHC forecast shows significant strengthening
while the system moves across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with a
95-kt intensity in 72 h. While this forecast is aggressive, it lies
near or slightly below the consensus aids, and future adjustments
may be necessary. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the system this afternoon.

Based on the NHC forecast, Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane
Watches have been issued for portions of western Cuba the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico. Interests along the northeastern Gulf Coast,
including the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Florida west
coast should monitor the progress of this system.

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