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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:18 am to
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
110929 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:18 am to
quote:

why do these dudes still have to talk in terms of kts?


It's hard to fathom.
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178939 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:18 am to
quote:

BC its the way we do it.


i'm going to apply for the head of NHC and make some real changes in that place.
Posted by gaetti15
AK
Member since Apr 2013
15292 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:19 am to
quote:

i'm going to apply for the head of NHC and make some real changes in that place.



start working on your tabasco sandpaper handjobs baw
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:20 am to
I actually had a meeting with him, on the very subject.

We both thought MPH was more intuitive, but figured it would annoy a baw or two on TD to use kts and thus, this is the way still.
Posted by Landmass
Premium Member
Member since Jun 2013
25571 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:20 am to
Looks to me like it would head out toward Bermuda and not up to Florida, but what do I know?
Posted by WHATASHAME
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2009
717 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:24 am to
Airlines are usually cooperative with rearranging flight plans for hurricanes. A possible way to get around this is depart from Miami on Thursday. Pick son up on Wednesday as planned and continue to Miami. Sleep in Miami if necessary.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131556 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:34 am to
quote:

Should any of these models be trusted until they find a center or eye?


General track idea yes because steering in gulf is straightforward

Exact landfall no
This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 10:34 am
Posted by PTLSU
New Orleans
Member since Jun 2012
1877 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:36 am to
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
16401 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:42 am to
Most models have it below cat 3 at this point








This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 10:45 am
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
16401 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:43 am to
quote:

General track idea yes because steering in gulf is straightforward Exact landfall no


But isn’t margin of error far greater until they identify a center?
Posted by Y.A. Tittle
Member since Sep 2003
110929 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:44 am to
So, is the consensus sort of backing off of this DoomCane Cat 5 type scenario?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75120 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:44 am to
quote:

RummelTiger

This post was edited on 9/23/24 at 10:47 am
Posted by Chad504boy
4 posts
Member since Feb 2005
178939 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:45 am to
quote:

So, is the consensus sort of backing off of this DoomCane Cat 5 type scenario?

too soon to let your guard down.
Posted by Quidam65
Q Continuum
Member since Jun 2010
20515 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:47 am to
quote:

Drove that way to Tampa earlier this year. Thats a roughhhh part of Florida


I did it twice this year heading to Venice.

On the first trip I thought they were still recovering from Michael. On the second trip I saw what Debby had done.
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131556 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:47 am to
quote:

So, is the consensus sort of backing off of this DoomCane Cat 5 type scenario?


Stay vigilant and prepare to hunker down

Make sure your hurricane plan is ready

Space reserved for additional platitude
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:49 am to
quote:

So, is the consensus sort of backing off of this DoomCane Cat 5 type scenario?


5 is too high, i think, for the time remaining.

Honestly would be surprised if this isnt a major at some point though.
Posted by Quidam65
Q Continuum
Member since Jun 2010
20515 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:50 am to
The right side of that track concerns me since my SO's family lives south of Tampa.
Posted by LanierSpots
Sarasota, Florida
Member since Sep 2010
71078 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:51 am to
quote:

The right side of that track concerns me since my SO's family lives south of Tampa.



Sitting here in my shop right now. 1 mile from Anna Maria Island
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:52 am to
quote:

So, is the consensus sort of backing off of this DoomCane Cat 5 type scenario?


As it is and will forever remain, intensity is always all over the place with models, much more than final destination. No one knows.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75120 posts
Posted on 9/23/24 at 10:53 am to
quote:

As it is and will forever remain, intensity is always all over the place with models, much more than final destination. No one knows.

Tarzana, is that you?
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