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Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:50 pm to Duke
I think those of us who live here on the panhandle are hoping the GFS is flat wrong since the other models aren’t agreeing with a Cat 4 intensity
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:52 pm to BayouENGR
quote:
I think those of us who live here on the panhandle are hoping the GFS is flat wrong since the other models aren’t agreeing with a Cat 4 intensity
I hope this thing fizzles out and no one gets it.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:53 pm to BayouENGR
HWRF going all out
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:57 pm to lsuman25
18Z Euro
Posted on 9/22/24 at 6:59 pm to lsuman25
That does not seem ideal.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:00 pm to NorthEndZone
Guess I’m glad I didn’t book a trip for tomorrow. Was waiting to see what best guess is with this and well I guess I got it.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:01 pm to Duke
What height do they normally measure winds from?
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:03 pm to lsuman25
quote:
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:06 pm to tiger91
quote:
What height do they normally measure winds from?
For a hurricane, the only wind we care about is the surface level. (yes, technically 10 m above the deck, thx rummy)
All those weather balloons we send up do measure winds at all the levels as they go up.
This post was edited on 9/22/24 at 7:08 pm
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:07 pm to tiger91
quote:
What height do they normally measure winds from?
33ft above surface.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:09 pm to tiger91
quote:
What height do they normally measure winds from?
I'll add to what Duke said and say that wind is measured at all levels. In the case of the image I shared it is more about how all of those winds work together to make a stronger storm that is better at cycling those winds into and out of it.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:10 pm to RummelTiger
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:12 pm to lsuman25
If y'all want to watch something in the immediate term, watch the storm(s) in the EPAC just offshore of SW Mexico. That storm will have some impact on our storm with how it develops.
This post was edited on 9/22/24 at 7:45 pm
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:12 pm to LegendInMyMind
This gonna be a big (size) storm it looks like.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:13 pm to nicholastiger
quote:
These areas have been very fortunate the last decade or so.
South Walton County has been lucky for over 50 years as far as winds are concerned. Storm surge/high surf in Opal, Ivan, and Katrina washed away some wooden beach access ramps/steps, but I don’t think there’s been a really destructive hurricane along 30A in living memory. Maybe because there wasn’t much there back in the day.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:15 pm to Duke
HWRF and HMON both blowing it up
HMON would be a disaster for Tampa
Of interest all models have landfall somewhere between Destin and Tampa
HMON would be a disaster for Tampa
Of interest all models have landfall somewhere between Destin and Tampa
This post was edited on 9/22/24 at 7:16 pm
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:18 pm to Cosmo
Not ideal
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:22 pm to NorthEndZone
The first set of Hurricane specific model runs at 18Z in summary:
HWRF - 90 to 95 knots and 930 to 934 MB - Apalachee Bay Thursday mid-morning
HMON - 90 knots and ~940 MB - Homosassa (bad surge track for Tampa Bay) late Thursday afternoon
HAFS-A - 90 knots and ~955 MB - large eye Destin to Panama City Thursday early afternoon
HAFS-B - 75 knots and ~960 MB - Panama City Thursday early afternoon
Not real good agreement on track but all say hurricane with 960 MB pressure or deeper and a large wind field (size) Thursday morning or afternoon.
HWRF - 90 to 95 knots and 930 to 934 MB - Apalachee Bay Thursday mid-morning
HMON - 90 knots and ~940 MB - Homosassa (bad surge track for Tampa Bay) late Thursday afternoon
HAFS-A - 90 knots and ~955 MB - large eye Destin to Panama City Thursday early afternoon
HAFS-B - 75 knots and ~960 MB - Panama City Thursday early afternoon
Not real good agreement on track but all say hurricane with 960 MB pressure or deeper and a large wind field (size) Thursday morning or afternoon.
Posted on 9/22/24 at 7:24 pm to udtiger
Not comfortable that Florida is the target 5-7 days out. Almost always will move one way or another and any H shift west will be bad news
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