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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:10 pm to
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
20232 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:10 pm to
winds adjusted back to 125 mph

recon guys saying Cat 4 is supported if NHC chooses to use it
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 5:12 pm
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14289 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:11 pm to
Water level is already 4.73 feet above normal at St. Pete Beach and winds gusting to 52 mph.
Posted by beebefootballfan
Member since Mar 2011
20870 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:11 pm to
The revised the update. Still at 125 mph pressure dropping
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:12 pm to
quote:

winds adjusted back to 125 mph


They’re probably closer to 140mph given the recon pass just found 156 mph winds at flight level.
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 5:13 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:12 pm to
Jim Rockford did that initial update
Posted by The Boat
Member since Oct 2008
177302 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:12 pm to
Center is crossing Tampa/St Pete latitudinally (real word) right now. Outer band with the main tornado threat has passed to the east. Winds are about maxed out with the center passing north. Max surge window from 8 pm to midnight as the winds shift out of the SW. That 5-8 ft they were calling for seems pretty unlikely up into Tampa/Old Tampa Bay.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21519 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:15 pm to
quote:

quote:
947 mb

Those damn hurricane models were right again


Yesterday, they had it down in the 920s at this time. I will say that those early GFS runs showing this getting into the low 940s don't look so crazy now.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14289 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:15 pm to
If this gauge survives, the 8 foot record will likely be smashed.

Posted by VCeagle2013
Member since Apr 2013
333 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:18 pm to
Holy Cow. The eastern eyewall of this storm is absolutely on fire right now
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
20232 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:18 pm to
what time is estimated landfall? 10 pm est?
Posted by crazyLSUstudent
391 miles away from Tiger Stadium
Member since Mar 2012
6131 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:18 pm to
quote:

They are estimating the French Broad River (Asheville area) to crest 10 ft above the record. The Western NC mountain areas are about to get crushed


Source?
Posted by TorchtheFlyingTiger
1st coast
Member since Jan 2008
3152 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:20 pm to
Just as I was thinking this was nothing way over here just S of Jacksonville we just had tornado warning and my neighborhood was on the timeline plot. Fortunately no touchdown and warning lifted. I had just told kids they could go play in rain (its barely drizzled here all day) when the warning popped up.
Posted by RazorBroncs
Possesses the largest
Member since Sep 2013
16189 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:20 pm to

Officially a Cat 4 now with 130MPH sustained
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43295 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:21 pm to
6:20 PM EDT Thu Sep 26
Location: 28.0°N 84.5°W
Moving: NNE at 23 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
...HELENE NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE..
Posted by TheGasMan
Member since Oct 2014
3485 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:22 pm to
quote:

Am I the only one who thinks a NHC's kindergarten age child put this together?

Better than adding a sharpie on a map for a national broadcast. But we aren’t allowed to talk about his ego…
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
20232 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:22 pm to
time to hide your blue sheds
Posted by MikeD
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2004
8432 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:22 pm to
quote:

Helene is going to make landfall within 50 miles, a few hours, and 25ish mph difference of where the very first cone and forecast suggested.


Pretty insane to nail the forecast that close from an area south of Cuba before it was even a depression
Posted by Bengalbio
Member since Feb 2017
2204 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:22 pm to
Eastern eyeball not looking good for Cedar Key.
Posted by BigBro
Member since Jul 2021
20232 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 5:23 pm to
i’m watching reed and he thinks it might wobble back west some
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