re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

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Atlantic basin. Patricia in the East Pacific would like a word on the "strongest" bit.

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Patricia NHC advisories

Unbelievable to read an advisory with 200 mph written on it. The discussions are something else too. Yikes.

Peaked at 215 mph though

What's your best guess on Helene's intensity at landfall?

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What's your best guess on Helene's intensity at landfall?

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Oh boy! Thats an interesting question this evening. One that's gonna keep the nerd in me up half the night.

Im going to edit this post, let me get my computer (and the dab pen) and flesh this out a little.

Tonight, microwave imagery showed Helene had a double core going on. A small incomplete inner core and a more complete but very broad outer core. This is why the storm is doing a steady strengthening currently, but not the rapid intensification feared at this point. It needs to consolidate all of this into one symmetric core to fully realize the potential of this extremely conducive environment.

Whenever it does close this eyewall off and have one main inner core, it's off to the races. There's a favorable jet interaction at approach, the friction with the land interaction will help it tighten up some, and it's getting a ton of ventilation currently.



See all those clouds getting pulled into the Carolinas. This helps pull mass out of the center of the storm and let it suck up more heat.



You can see the strong winds at the 250 mb level, creating a powerful outflow channel to the northside of the storm.

Look, it could take till near landfall when the jet interaction plus a little friction from the land finally get it to tighten up and intensify. Probably going to be sooner than that though.

I think a reasonable range here is 115 - 150. (it's wide, intensity is hard)

NHC's max of 135 is probably the best guess at it, if you had me pick a number.

I have a feeling this thing is going to go more westward than they think.

Hurricane models still going with RI in next 19 hours

HAFS-B - 937 mb and 140 mph
HAFS-A - 942 mb and 130 mph
HMON - 932 mb and 150 mph
HWRF - 932 mb and 140 mph

Average 936 mb and 140 mph

Looks like it's go time that last spin coming off the Mexican peninsula and you can see the center getting to tighten up with a defined eye I bet the next satellite imagery won't be good.

Duke what do you think about my last post did I get it right or am I way off?

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Duke what do you think about my last post did I get it right or am I way off?

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Yeah, I think you're going the right direction. Doing that shrimp thing on the E and NE side. Deep convection sustained around the center. Got a plane about to do a pass, we're going to see how much it is actually improving under the hood.

The last hour or so has been ominous. Hope the plane finds something different.

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What's your best guess on Helene's intensity at landfall?

---

Oh boy! Thats an interesting question this evening. One that's gonna keep the nerd in me up half the night.

Im going to edit this post, let me get my computer (and the dab pen) and flesh this out a little.

Tonight, microwave imagery showed Helene had a double core going on. A small incomplete inner core and a more complete but very broad outer core. This is why the storm is doing a steady strengthening currently, but not the rapid intensification feared at this point. It needs to consolidate all of this into one symmetric core to fully realize the potential of this extremely conducive environment.

Whenever it does close this eyewall off and have one main inner core, it's off to the races. There's a favorable jet interaction at approach, the friction with the land interaction will help it tighten up some, and it's getting a ton of ventilation currently.



See all those clouds getting pulled into the Carolinas. This helps pull mass out of the center of the storm and let it suck up more heat.



You can see the strong winds at the 250 mb level, creating a powerful outflow channel to the northside of the storm.

Look, it could take till near landfall when the jet interaction plus a little friction from the land finally get it to tighten up and intensify. Probably going to be sooner than that though.

I think a reasonable range here is 115 - 150. (it's wide, intensity is hard)

NHC's max of 135 is probably the best guess at it, if you had me pick a number.

*More useful on this page, where we're having the conversation*