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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:17 am to
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
75137 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:17 am to
79kt/91mph flight level recorded.
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14297 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:21 am to
Going get some sleep. Be back in about 9 hours.

I think it will be 90 to 95 knots by 10 AM advisory.

Night.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59271 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:22 am to
Would be awesome I am sure that area is stressing big time. To wake up and fine it right around Cat 1 would be fantastic
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:29 am to
Helene is “weaker” than any of the hurricane specific models thought she would be by 1AM. She’s behind schedule in a trend that has continued for the last day or so, which continues to be welcomed news.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:30 am to
quote:

it’s been holding steady for many hours now.


Organization.

When it finally works the relic of the old inner core out and closes off the eyewall, I expect the intensification to happen fast.

I still think it gets to high 3/low 4 despite the slow strengthening tonight.
Posted by ladyluckUGA
Member since Feb 2014
6432 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:30 am to
quote:

Yeah I'll be on the west side so I feel comfortable staying. We road out Michael when the eye passed right over the house


Being within the eye itself is not what’s bad, that’s very little activity relatively speaking, it’s the eye wall that’s what is devastating. Hope you’re positively sure you’re not in that.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59271 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:33 am to
still moving pretty fast I think it may run out of time I am going right at CAT 2 hitting Tuscaloosa at Sunrise
Posted by RockChalkTiger
A Little Bit South of Saskatoon
Member since May 2009
11119 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:38 am to
quote:

throw Mark Sudduth and crew at Hurricane Track on Patreon $10 can access all of the remote live cams they put out.

I will give anyone $50 to go strap themselves to a piling on Alligator Point with a GoPro on their head!
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 1:46 am
Posted by otowntiger
O-Town
Member since Jan 2004
16920 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:41 am to
quote:

I still think it gets to high 3/low 4 despite the slow strengthening tonight.
I guess that’s possible- but the longer it takes to get going the less time it has to make its very high forecast intensity. My guess is it will landfall as a low end cat 2.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:41 am to
I aint seen anything tonight to knock me off the idea of high 3/low 4. Ive seen this game with a favorable jet positioning before.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:43 am to
quote:

less time it has to make its very high forecast intensity.


The slow develop keeps it from getting high 4 or better. The environment could easily support a 5. Luckily it runs out of time.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:49 am to
quote:

I guess that’s possible- but the longer it takes to get going the less time it has to make its very high forecast intensity. My guess is it will landfall as a low end cat 2.


It’s already a low end Cat 2 in all likelihood.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 1:54 am to
Recon is measuring hurricane force winds 95 statute miles from the center in both the SE and NE quadrant at the moment. Thats a decent bit bigger on the eastern side than they had forecast so far.
Posted by kc8876
Member since May 2012
3714 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 2:04 am to
(no message)
This post was edited on 9/26/24 at 2:07 am
Posted by TigerHoo
DC
Member since Oct 2005
304 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 2:34 am to
Captiva (off of Fort Myers, FL) getting bands of rain now: LINK
Posted by Tvilletiger
PVB
Member since Oct 2015
5996 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:13 am to
Our farm is going to get wrecked in Thomasville. We let the horses go out into the pastures and tagged them all.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91838 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:18 am to
Core is still fairly broad but showing signs of steady intensification and tightening.
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59271 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:23 am to
when is next update?
Posted by BritLSUfan
Member since Jan 2012
694 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:28 am to
From OP


quote:

The NHC releases updates at 1am, 4am, 7am, 10am, 1pm, 4pm, 7pm and 10pm (Central Time).
Posted by FLBooGoTigs1
Nocatee, FL.
Member since Jan 2008
59271 posts
Posted on 9/26/24 at 3:35 am to
was asking because I haven't seen the 4 am update
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