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re: Helene - Recovery Begins...Devastating Flash Flooding in Western NC and Eastern TN

Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:48 pm to
Posted by udtiger
Over your left shoulder
Member since Nov 2006
117070 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:48 pm to
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:48 pm to
quote:

Its open NE and SW


Huh?

quote:

URNT12 KWBC 260143 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092024
A. 26/01:11:06Z
B. 22.88 deg N 086.70 deg W
C. NA
D. 973 mb
E. 205 deg 07 kt
F. OPEN SE


That’s from 8:11 central time and appears accurate with IR.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:50 pm to
quote:

Huh?


Im going to blow your mind, but potentially you saw a more updated one than I was referencing.

And it's still open, so...
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 8:51 pm
Posted by MountaineerPatriot
Member since Aug 2024
134 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:50 pm to
quote:

ecause we have a non refundable vacation, so we gonna do what we have to do.

Storm will be past but not sure how the roadways will be or which detours may be available, but guess we will FAFO


I would check with wherever you are going. Sometimes for storms like this even the nonrefundable rates can be cancelled due to an act of God.

Even if they don't budge on that, a lot of times they'll give you a credit for awhile. I had a New Orleans trip I had to cancel and it was past the cancellation deadline so it was nonrefundable. They wouldn't refund the hotel but they advised they would give me a credit and I had one year to use it.

If you absolutely do have to make it, pack up all supplies you need.

Assuming you are coming from Louisiana, if you're in North Louisiana I would take 20 to Atlanta, 75 to Macon, 16 to Savannah, 95 to Daytona Beach and then 4 to Orlando, essentially going around the storm and coming to Orlando from the east. Yes it will be a lot longer but 75 south of Macon will be iffy at best and 10 in the Panhandle will be a disaster from around Mile Marker 130 to Mile Marker 296 (where I-75 and I-10 meet).

If your'e in South Louisiana, I don't think you need to go all the way up to 20. I would say take 10 to Mobile, then 65 to Montgomery, then 85 to Auburn. At Auburn get off 85 and take US 280 to Columbus and then US 80 to Macon. It's a good road and parts of it are essentially interstate level or at least 4 lane divided highway level. Once again at Macon (unless you are seeing reports 75 is clear which it probably won't be) I would take 16 to Savannah, 95 to Daytona Beach and then 4 to Orlando.

Unless it goes further west and maybe doesn't impact 75 as much, I would avoid 75 south of Macon. It's a major route so the biggest priority will be keeping it open but even if it is open gas and lodging (if you get stuck somewhere and can't make it that day to Orlando) could be difficult to find.

Biggest thing is to take 16 to Savannah and 95 south through Jacksonville to Daytona Beach and then 4 to Orlando to essentially go around the impacted areas.
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
77963 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:52 pm to
quote:

Wxman

quote:

Wxman on Storm2k ran Slosh modeling and showed Tampa getting about 10' storm surge. It's about 2' higher than what's being forecast. How far inland are they?
Tampa proper. Not near the coast.
Posted by LSUneaux
Metairie and MAGA AF
Member since Mar 2014
5044 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:52 pm to
West Georgia has gotten a lot of rain today which won’t help
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:52 pm to
The whole stay vs don’t stay depends on your individual situation, obviously.

I wouldn’t stay for any significant storm if I was on the actual coasts due to surge, and I wouldn’t stay for a significant storm within 100 miles of the coast if I had tree threats.

Outside of those two, the decision to stay is incredibly unlikely to put your life in danger. A strong argument can be made that evacuating is more deadly than staying in a well built home without tree issues.

However, the vast majority of people that I have ever met who stayed during Laura, Ida, etc. say they’d never do it again. I think it’s the psychological part that’s rough, and then the absolute inconvenience of the immediate aftermath.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 8:57 pm
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:55 pm to
quote:

Im going to blow your mind, but potentially you saw a more updated one than I was referencing.


, I thought you possibly had a more updated one than me.
Posted by bigpapamac
Mobile, AL
Member since Oct 2007
22607 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:55 pm to
quote:

They haven’t farmed oysters in Apalachicola in 5 or 6 years


Which is such bs.
Posted by SlidellCajun
Slidell la
Member since May 2019
16868 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:55 pm to
I would stay if no water concerns.
Have a generator.
No major concerns with falling trees
No young children to care for

Posted by GEAUXT
Member since Nov 2007
30616 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:57 pm to
Riding out a hurricane, at night, with pine trees swaying and creaking, and things constantly falling on the roof and flying against your windows is an incredibly unnerving experience. Starting to hear trees snap and fall is even worse.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

I thought you possibly had a more updated one than me


Im running just off my phone tonight

So I knew that couldnt be the case.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
76016 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:59 pm to
Not seeing much from the plane right now to support an 85mph storm. Let's see what they find with this next pass.
This post was edited on 9/25/24 at 9:00 pm
Posted by LSUDUCKMAN67
DTB
Member since Sep 2020
1698 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:59 pm to
A lot of ppl that stay and ride this out will have PTSD after this!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91871 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 8:59 pm to
quote:

would stay if no water concerns. Have a generator. No major concerns with falling trees No young children to care for


Me too.

It will be a headache for people regardless (understatement of the year), but leaving is just as much of a headache for different reasons as staying is. I’m also sympathetic to the idea that people want to be home to protect their things. It’s mostly futile, but I get it.
Posted by Bobby OG Johnson
Member since Apr 2015
34015 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:00 pm to
Some are already under Flood Warnings

Posted by elprez00
Hammond, LA
Member since Sep 2011
31623 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:06 pm to
quote:

However, the vast majority of people that I have ever met who stayed during Laura, Ida, etc. say they’d never do it again. I think it’s the psychological part that’s rough, and then the absolute inconvenience of the immediate aftermath

This is excellent advice especially if you have kids. We left for Ida because it was the first storm in our house and I was nervous about trees. House made it thru fine but the stories of neighbors that stayed more than justified us leaving. Most spent the night in interior bathrooms. I don’t have any desire to do that with my kids.
Posted by SloaneRanger
Upper Hurstville
Member since Jan 2014
14282 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

That is a weird place in the winter. It gets dark at 3:30.


Uh, no. I live on the eastern edge of the central time zone and further north. In late December it gets dark around 4:30.
Posted by MountaineerPatriot
Member since Aug 2024
134 posts
Posted on 9/25/24 at 9:11 pm to
quote:

he whole stay vs don’t stay depends on your individual situation, obviously.

I wouldn’t stay for any significant storm if I was on the actual coasts due to surge, and I wouldn’t stay for a significant storm within 100 miles of the coast if I had tree threats.

Outside of those two, the decision to stay is incredibly unlikely to put your life in danger. A strong argument can be made that evacuating is more deadly than staying in a well built home without tree issues.

However, the vast majority of people that I have ever met who stayed during Laura, Ida, etc. say they’d never do it again. I think it’s the psychological part that’s rough, and then the absolute inconvenience of the immediate aftermath.


I live in Florida so I don't have experience with Ida but I did go through Irma in 2017. The eye of Irma almost literally went over my house. Definitely some scary moments with the eye wall when I thought a window was going to blow out or a roof tile (luckily I have tile instead of shingles) would fail and then water would start getting in. Luckily that didn't happen.

I spent about 30 minutes inside my interior closet downstairs. That or the kitchen downstairs (I live in a townhome) is really the only place I had.

I didn't mind it by myself but it would've been hard with kids, and I live significantly inland. I definitely think my threshold for evacuating would be much lower with kids.
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