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re: Harvey ***Catastrophic Flooding Event***

Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:24 pm to
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
75692 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:24 pm to
what's with the shift to southern Texas? That boundary towards North Texas lift?
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
21626 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:26 pm to
quote:


Y'all invest too much time into watching these shitty models that never pan out.


Well, like yea, duh
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:26 pm to
quote:

When does 18z Euro start rolling out?


Doesn't exist. It only runs every 12 hours. I believe it's around midnight. Check the OP.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:28 pm to
quote:

what's with the shift to southern Texas? That boundary towards North Texas lift?


You'll have to ask rds. I just post the pictures and make generic comments.
Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:28 pm to
The new gfs buries the storm in South texas/Mexico.
Posted by Klark Kent
Houston via BR
Member since Jan 2008
75692 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:28 pm to
lol. k
Posted by tke857
Member since Jan 2012
12195 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:29 pm to
hope them tigers get out of BR


This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 5:31 pm
Posted by lsuman25
Erwinville
Member since Aug 2013
43310 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:31 pm to
It makes it back into the Gulf doesn't really strengthen it still off shore Louisiana on the 1st of September.
Posted by The People
LSU Alumni
Member since Aug 2008
4456 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:37 pm to
So nearly all the current models (spaghetti strings) all have it looping back out into the Gulf and back over Louisiana?

I know it may be too early to predict, but how much rain can we expect in BR over the next week and for how many days?
Posted by dukke v
PLUTO
Member since Jul 2006
216643 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:39 pm to
I remember that storm...... huge rains.... moved down from Michigan that very year and I had never seen anything like that as far as rainfall.....

And if I remember correctly.. Fred hit Mobile that same year....
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:42 pm to
quote:

The new gfs buries the storm in South texas/Mexico.


That's an understatement. It takes 126 hours to make a circle roughly 150 miles in diameter and back to the point it made landfall. Damn.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:43 pm to
quote:

So nearly all the current models (spaghetti strings) all have it looping back out into the Gulf and back over Louisiana?

I know it may be too early to predict, but how much rain can we expect in BR over the next week and for how many days?




It's a long ways out, but the storm should be moving relatively quickly through central/eastern LA when the time comes.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:46 pm to
Looks that way Slack.

The question for Louisiana impacts appears to be how strong it is when it blows past. Does it have time over open water to develop or not.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:48 pm to
That's a long time in southern TX.

Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:54 pm to
It should be noted that this is 10 days out at this point, but the 18z GFS has 22" of rain in 24 hours for the Baytown area ending around 1AM Friday morning.

This post was edited on 8/23/17 at 5:54 pm
Posted by BottomlandBrew
Member since Aug 2010
30155 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:54 pm to
You're on website based around a football team that never pans out. We're addicted to that feeling.
Posted by lsurulz1515
Member since Mar 2007
8283 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:54 pm to

Thats absolutely crazy. Hope everyone prepares for this as best as possible
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91869 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 5:57 pm to
Levi from Tropical Tidbits has posted his video for the day. Worth a watch for those who want a better understanding of the dynamics at play for Harvey.

LINK
Posted by TigerstuckinMS
Member since Nov 2005
33687 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 6:01 pm to
quote:

That's a long time in southern TX.

Yeah. Those people might evolve gills.
Posted by TigerStripes06
SWLA
Member since Sep 2006
30032 posts
Posted on 8/23/17 at 6:01 pm to
Well, that doesn't look like a doomsday scenario for louisiana. A decent amount of rain, but by the time it got here it would be on the move. I think that's one thing the models have shown consistently the last couple days: Rapid movement through middle to late next week when it decides to leave the Texas coast, which is when it would be moving through SW and sela.
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