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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:46 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:46 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Where this is set to make landfall is nothing but marsh.
Yeah I wonder if it’s even quantifiable to forecast or if it’s just more of an “err on the side of caution”
0
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:46 am to TheRouxGuru
Pardon my question:
When a model is initialized at 6z on 09 Sept, that means that the model produced this product at 1 am, Central Daylight Time, on 09 Sept.
Is this correct?
When a model is initialized at 6z on 09 Sept, that means that the model produced this product at 1 am, Central Daylight Time, on 09 Sept.
Is this correct?
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:46 am to Ponchy Tiger
WIki - Brown Ocean Effect
quote:
The brown ocean effect is an observed weather phenomenon involving some tropical cyclones after landfall. Normally, hurricanes and tropical storms lose strength when they make landfall, but when the brown ocean effect is in play, tropical cyclones maintain strength or even intensify over land surfaces.[1] Australia is the most conducive environment for this effect, where such storm systems are called agukabams
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:48 am to jclem11
quote:
agukabams
We just call them aquabawms here.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:48 am to Ponchy Tiger
quote:
Explain this?
Where Ida made landfall in South East Louisiana appears as land on a map and the models see it as land as well. The truth is that the inland water can continue to fuel hurricanes even though they’re technically over “land”
Ida was able to maintain strength due to this and the fact that she had a double eyewall to some extent as well.
Hurricanes have done that crossing over Florida as well because of the Everglades
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:49 am to rds dc
quote:
quote:
Place your bets on center line landfall at 4 pm
Im gonna say tx/la stateline
Lean on the 12z Euro/GFS blend. Just west of Vermillion Bay.
It just took them a bit to come around
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:50 am to rmnldr
Anyone know if they may close Louis Armstrong at any point?
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:51 am to choupiquesushi
quote:
a cat 1 wont do that
You're doing it wrong. We're in the doomcasting and sarcasm stage of the thread.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:51 am to TigerNAtux
Yes once the winds hit a certain level they would close MSY. My guess is Wednesday afternoon at the earliest.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:51 am to Tigerholic
Okay. Thank you.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:52 am to choupiquesushi
quote:
Have we discussed how the current track puts S to SE winds directly up the Mississippi River threatening to cause it to run backwards and possibly jump channels to the Atchafalaya?
a cat 1 wont do that
I think C2 is still in the mix?
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:54 am to TigerNAtux
My buddy from one of LA's FEMA office is saying they are expecting a cat 2-3 now.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:55 am to rds dc
quote:
It just took them a bit to come around
Hurricanes suck but hurricanes making landfall at night suck 10X more
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:55 am to TigerNAtux
I am supposed to fly out at 5:30 AM on Thursday to go to the LSU USCe game.
How far in advance do they normally announce airport closures?
How far in advance do they normally announce airport closures?
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:56 am to SmogkDeizKnutz
quote:
My buddy from one of LA's FEMA office is saying they are expecting a cat 2-3 now.
That windshear along the Gulf coastline will shear and weaken the storm. Are they predicting that this wind shear will dissipate?
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:56 am to rds dc
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:56 am to back9Tiger
You won't be flying out of New Orleans at 5:30am Thursday
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:57 am to stout
quote:
Hurricanes suck but hurricanes making landfall at night suck 10X more
Eh, get to sleep thru them for the most part. House doesn't get hot before you can set up the generator the next day.
Only "good" part about daytime hurricanes is watching shite blow away
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:57 am to stout
I just turned to The Weather Channel for the first time in I don’t know when, and it took me about five minutes to turn it off. The doom casting is freaking ridiculous.
Posted on 9/9/24 at 8:57 am to Champagne
quote:
My buddy from one of LA's FEMA office is saying they are expecting a cat 2-3 now.
They usually “plan” for a category or 2 stronger to be prepared just in case
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