re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph

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Are they predicting that this wind shear will dissipate?

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It will be traveling in conjunction with the wind shear, so it will probably help strengthen the storm by ventilating it.

Something to watch is how organized the system is when it passes near South Texas. The Euro allows dry air to wrap into the circulation, while the GFS keeps the core protected from dry air.

06z Euro



06z GFS



Keeping dry air out of the circulation plays a role in how strong the system can get. A more robust system will not weaken as fast on approach to the coast as it can better fend off wind shear.

Whoever the soyboy curly haired phag that was on a little bit ago was pissed that people are worried about where the cone is and not the center line.

For years, I've heard from professionals that you need to pay attention if you're in the cone and not to focus just on the center line.

Is there a good collection of these models somewhere other than Tropical Tidbit?

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a cat 1 wont do that

You're doing it wrong. We're in the doomcasting and sarcasm stage of the thread.

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Every possibility is on the table. And I mean every.

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When a model is initialized at 6z on 09 Sept, that means that the model produced this product at 1 am, Central Daylight Time, on 09 Sept.

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I think it means midnight. Since CST is -6

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I can't tell if serious or sarcastic because I'm mildy retarded when it comes to these things

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I'm being serious.

Pivotal weather is another option. I use it and tropical tidbits

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They still have money in the budget to operate? Good for them.

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I miss the old FEMA from after Katrina and Rita that gave minorities who didn't even own a house $2K checks to buy car stereos and rims with.

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You're missing the point that this storm will push water up the Atchafalaya 1000x times more than the MS.

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So the Amite/DC is a more likely jump?