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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:42 am to Tiger328
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:42 am to Tiger328
quote:
Kinda odd we haven’t heard from RDS, Duke, or Boat in quite some time
Boat is on the tropical storm thread night shift.
Duke and rds seen the shite show and left us on our own to figure it out.
1
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:43 am to Tiger328
quote:
Kinda odd we haven’t heard from RDS, Duke, or Boat in quite some time
Maybe they gave up since this thread is over 100 pages of a mess.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:44 am to maisweh
Some of us have jobs...
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:45 am to Duke
If you had to guess, should the GNO area, specifically plaquemines parish, be worried about tornados?
With this storm, I’m not too concerned about the wind/rain, just terrified about tornados spawning.
And yes, I did discuss this yesterday but my nerves are getting the best of me right now
With this storm, I’m not too concerned about the wind/rain, just terrified about tornados spawning.
And yes, I did discuss this yesterday but my nerves are getting the best of me right now
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:46 am to VanRIch
Editing to add the 10AM
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[/url][/img] This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 12:41 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:46 am to tigerbutt
Probably another 10-20 mile shift east at 4 then track is pretty set
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:47 am to Duke
That’s pretty selfish of you!!
Explain to your supervisor what’s going on, tell him your credentials, and give him the link to this thread
Explain to your supervisor what’s going on, tell him your credentials, and give him the link to this thread
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:47 am to berrycajun
That graphic is old AF
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:48 am to BlackJack02
quote:
Not being a wise arse, genuinely curious, but this thing has gone from the state line to trending to Mississippi in 2 days? That’s normal? Once again, asking genuinely as I do not know.
For starters, they issued 3 forecast advisories before it was even a tropical storm (“potential tropical cyclone”) which is designed to give people early warning if they think something is imminent. Those forecast are inherently tricky since there isn’t even a well defined center, but it was the initial forecast that was on the state line.
Since it’s been a verified storm, the furthest west they’ve been was Freshwater City, which is essentially central LA.
If it makes landfall in central Terrebonne Parish, they will have been off by about 150 miles as the crow flies from their original forecast on Sunday @ 4pm. Their 1 standard deviation error over the last 5 years has been 115 miles 72 hours out. 1 standard deviation either direction equates to a 65% chance the storm will end up in the cone at a given date, and that’s how the cone is set. This may end up outside of that, but not by a large margin.
If you give them the benefit of the doubt and use the first forecast after it was named, they’ll miss by 80 miles @ 60 hours out, which is well within their 100 mile standard deviation (and cone) at that interval.
Hope this helps.
NHC Cone Methodology
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:48 am to Duke
quote:
Some of us have jobs...
Updating the T/S & Hurricane threads?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:48 am to BRich
I was in the eye of Zeta too and started a topic about it on here.
That was the second time I went through an eye and the first during a major hurricane. The first was Cindy, weeks before Katrina that wasn’t declared a hurricane until after the fact.
Edit for correction.
Cindy, not Debbie.
That was the second time I went through an eye and the first during a major hurricane. The first was Cindy, weeks before Katrina that wasn’t declared a hurricane until after the fact.
Edit for correction.
Cindy, not Debbie.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 12:18 pm
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:48 am to Duke
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:48 am to Cosmo
JFC Jeff Landry is such a fukn embarrassment
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:49 am to Paul Allen
Any rainfall projections?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:50 am to LSUfan4444
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:50 am to tgrbaitn08
quote:
JFC Jeff Landry is such a fukn embarrassment
Has Jeff used the hurricane to lobby for something ridiculous just to appear to dunk on Dems before flopping?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:50 am to Tiger328
quote:
Kinda odd we haven’t heard from RDS, Duke, or Boat in quite some time
I'm working nights and sleeping during the day. Last night was really busy for obvious reasons.
Not working nights on TD.. I mean my actual job as much as posting on TD is one too.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:52 am to The Boat
quote:
working nights and sleeping during the day.
Stop making excuses, chicken pays you to perform dammit!
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:52 am to Cosmo
quote:
Probably another 10-20 mile shift east at 4 then track is pretty set
frick you.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:53 am to The Boat
quote:
I'm working nights and sleeping during the day
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