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4
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:32 am to LegendInMyMind
So Levi says shift to East was due to initially being wrong on the center of the storm and to not expect much deviation from the current track. Wonder why the GFS runs it so far east?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:32 am to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
No lol. It’s just frustrating that so much of the discussion aftet 50-60 pages is just arguing with a few NWS graphics thrown in.
equally frustrating too is navigating through the whining posts.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 11:37 am
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:33 am to rds dc
Weather gurus having a hard time predicting this hurricane path. They keep moving this bitch further east every day.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:34 am to BlackJack02
quote:
initially being wrong on the center of the storm
you'd think that's the one damn thing they should have known all along.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:34 am to tigerbutt
quote:
They keep moving this bitch further east every day.
My luck it never starts moving east and hits LC in the middle of the night.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:34 am to Chad504boy
quote:
equally frustrating too is navigating too through the whining posts.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:34 am to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
with a few NWS graphics thrown in.
Updates are not constant but you can find graphics at places like this LINK.
It's a great place to go for pure weather data.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 11:36 am
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:35 am to Chad504boy
I’ll admit I’ve got no clue. This is my first storm to really read and try to absorb the info of some great posters on this board. It’s been very interesting to follow along. I’m fascinated
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:36 am to crazyLSUstudent
quote:
It’s just frustrating that so much of the discussion aftet 50-60 pages is just arguing with a few NWS graphics thrown in.
First time in a hurricane thread?
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:36 am to crazyLSUstudent
Everyone wanting information should just follow a simple rule:
If you’re in the cone prepare for a storm one category higher than projected. Just leave it at that. It should give you peace of mind.
If you’re in the cone prepare for a storm one category higher than projected. Just leave it at that. It should give you peace of mind.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:36 am to Buck Dancer
quote:.
Zeta was late October 2020 (year before Ida). it was cool after Zeta, so power being out wasn't a big deal.
Remember it well. We rode it out at our house in Old Metairie. Only time I ever experienced the eye of a hurricane. Wind and rain picked up in intensity, then just STOPPED. I and my neighbors all gathered outside in the calm to talk and see weird color skies (happened right around sunset). After a brief respite, it started up again, but with barely any rain; just strong winds.
Here is a video I took just before the worst part. We actually still had power, as you can see from the house across the street's lights. Listen close near the end and you can hear the bells of St. Catherine of Siena church ringing from being blown in the wind:
LINK
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 11:41 am
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:36 am to Antonio Moss
quote:
First time in a hurricane thread?
stop wishcasting. this is a tropical storm thread.
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:39 am to BRich
quote:
Remember it well. We rode it out at our house in Old Metairie. Only time I ever experienced the eye of a hurricane. Wind and rain picked up in intensity, then just STOPPED. I and my neighbors all gathered outside in the calm to talk and see weird color skies (happened right around sunset). After a brief respite, it started up again, but with barely any rain; just strong winds.
People were walking around uptown like it was a normal day in the eye. Could see people start running home when it got dark real fast with the back side of the eye coming
The weather was intense on the backside of the eye
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:40 am to Chad504boy
I have been working all morning but is there such a shift that BR is kinda not gonna get the brunt like the track was saying last night? And please don't come at me...I cant sit and read the 60 pages that have since happened since I looked at this thread. I was on the NHC website but it just has the 10am update and their track has it going just east of BR Metro
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:40 am to BlackJack02
quote:
So Levi says shift to East was due to initially being wrong on the center of the storm and to not expect much deviation from the current track. Wonder why the GFS runs it so far east?
This is why he’s the best. The Nola Mets will wishcast it that way but I’m not buying what they’re selling
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:41 am to BlackJack02
quote:
So Levi says shift to East was due to initially being wrong on the center of the storm and to not expect much deviation from the current track. Wonder why the GFS runs it so far east?
GFS is slightly more progressive and stronger with the shortwave trough feature moving out of East Texas. That's the main driver for the eastern shift and sets the western edge. In grand scheme of things we aren't dealing with huge shifts here. It doesn't take much difference in the smaller features to move a storm like this.
ETA: That trough, and the associated upper level flow is also the main player in the shear that should weaken it on approach to landfall.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 11:43 am
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:41 am to LegendInMyMind
Kinda odd we haven’t heard from RDS, Duke, or Boat in quite some time
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:42 am to tigerbutt
quote:
Weather gurus having a hard time predicting this hurricane path. They keep moving this bitch further east every day.
Wrong initial position, wrong launching point. Im with Levi, now that its moving, I dont see a lot of reason for a lot more eastern shifts. Maybe 10-15 miles...
Its getting routed around that s/w and the anticyclone in the gulf. The NHC path looks pretty damn good to me.
ETA: Ive been a little too far west this entire time too.
This post was edited on 9/10/24 at 11:44 am
Posted on 9/10/24 at 11:42 am to Gee Grenouille
quote:
The facility had a several bed psych ward. People would sit around watching storm “updates” and eventually just crack over the uncertainty and end up in the psych ward. Really sad situation.
Are you suggesting they need to upgrade their servers for when we all check in?
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