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Started By
Message
re: Francine - Landfall in Terrebonne Parish as CAT 2 100 mph
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:29 pm to jaytothen
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:29 pm to jaytothen
quote:
NOAA has released studies stating 'global warming' would cause LESS hurricanes and storms. Not sure who you mean by 'they' but the actual experts have said repeatedly that's not the case. Media, however, sure. But they're idiots.
Hot, dry, stable, air and Saharan Dust usually don't support formation.
I don't think it was "would" but "might," and the debate on that is still out. Everyone seems to have their pet reason for this season's failure to produce (however, it will likely produce a period of hyperactivity at some point, but not enough to meet the preseason predictions), and this season will result in lots of PhD research projects.
I mentioned before the season that the North Atlantic could be a failure pathway for this season, which has played out to some extent. I'm not saying I was right b/c that wasn't a prediction. It appears that wave breaking across the North Atlantic into Europe has driven enough dry, stable air down into the Eastern MDR to cause some issues. Those injections seem to have been enhanced by a farther north than normal monsoonal circulation over West Africa (WAM). Then, the Western Atlantic has been dominated by sinking air for a while now. This sinking air typically wouldn't be a major issue for healthy waves moving westward. However, it has been enough to keep these weaker waves in check.
This is just spitballing, and I'm sure it's way more complicated than that, but it's my hot take.
3
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:36 pm to rds dc
Speaking of hot takes, I’m waiting for Peej’s before I prepare for 180° out from it.
His track record is un-undefeated.
His track record is un-undefeated.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 6:56 pm to jaytothen
quote:
NOAA has released studies stating 'global warming' would cause LESS hurricanes and storms. Not sure who you mean by 'they' but the actual experts have said repeatedly that's not the case. Media, however, sure. But they're idiots. Hot, dry, stable, air and Saharan Dust usually don't support formation.
They being what is being reported by most of the media. If NOAA disagreed they sure weren’t vociferous.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 7:02 pm to deltaland
quote:
Is it not possible climate could change for the better leading to less severe weather?
That mindset doesn't scare anyone to force changes enforced by your New World Order overlords.
Thus, your reasoning or thought will be censored by the State.
Posted on 9/2/24 at 7:06 pm to rds dc
we need the rain because
rain makes corn
corn makes whiskey…
rain makes corn
corn makes whiskey…
Posted on 9/2/24 at 7:36 pm to rds dc
So what you’re saying is it’s WAM BAM thank you ma’am?
Posted on 9/2/24 at 10:12 pm to rds dc
quote:
this season will result in lots of PhD research projects.
Want one that will stir the pot? This season (at least to this point) isn't the only bust of note in recent years. Compare 2024's high side bust by everyone to 2020's lowside bust by everyone. We aren't talking about marginal busts, either. 2020 was significant, and 2024 has the chance to be even more so depending on how it closes.
Two different collective busts for the exact opposite reasons. Of course, the cumulative effect of both happening in such a short timeframe can't help but to erode public confidence. It is a public messaging nightmare waiting to happen. The sociologists need to get their grant proposals ready.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 6:07 am to deltaland
quote:
It’s funny how climate change always has to be worse weather
This is my problem with the heat index and wind chill factor. Is there no wind in the summer? Is there no humidity in winter?
Posted on 9/3/24 at 7:12 am to LegendInMyMind
Hurricane season hasn’t peaked yet and storms are queuing up one after the other. It’s a bit premature to call this year a bust.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 7:24 am to Hobie101
quote:
storms are queuing up one after the other.
They are?
Posted on 9/3/24 at 7:26 am to Hobie101
quote:
Hurricane season hasn’t peaked yet and storms are queuing up one after the other. It’s a bit premature to call this year a bust
You sound like a weather channel intern.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 7:42 am to Cosmo
quote:
storms are queuing up one after the other. They are?
See OP with 5 day outlook.
Maybe I’m being pessimistic. Should I say hurricane season is over and that will help prevent more storms ?
Posted on 9/3/24 at 7:52 am to Hobie101
You have a storm the models are starting to be soft on, and two that are two weeks from being in the realm of approaching a threat. Most likely will be fish storms or nothing.
So yes. Declaring that storms are “queuing up” is being pessimistic. A nobody has their head in the sand. We all know what CAN happen but calling it out does nothing but wear on people’s minds. Its already the reality of living in this state.
So yes. Declaring that storms are “queuing up” is being pessimistic. A nobody has their head in the sand. We all know what CAN happen but calling it out does nothing but wear on people’s minds. Its already the reality of living in this state.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 7:59 am to stout
Result of injecting geo engineered weather ?
Posted on 9/3/24 at 8:04 am to Hobie101
quote:
Hurricane season hasn’t peaked yet and storms are queuing up one after the other. It’s a bit premature to call this year a bust.
Here was the prediction
quote:
NOAA is forecasting a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher). Of those, 8 to 13 are forecast to become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
Currently:
5 Named Storms
3 Hurricanes
So to meet their "predictions" of doom and gloom, we need at least 12 named storms over the next 8 weeks. To hit their extreme doomcast, we need 20.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 8:09 am to Lsut81
RATINGS, RATINGS, RATINGS who wants to watch anything weather if nothing is going on????
Posted on 9/3/24 at 8:10 am to LegendInMyMind
quote:
line would be long of people crying and casting blame because they weren't warned about the possibility of a terrible hurricane season.
Why do they need to? I’ve never understood this. Storms come. You prepare when you see a troublesome cone. The end.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 8:12 am to Park duck
quote:
RATINGS, RATINGS, RATINGS who wants to watch anything weather if nothing is going on????
But in all honesty, its not just the news outlets, its this board too... Everything is doom and gloom.
Don Henley had it right, everyone loves dirty laundry.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 8:33 am to Lsut81
quote:
Everything is doom and gloom
I don’t think so. I really only look at RDS post and get updates on what Levi is posting because they post FACTS. And that’s what I want.
I find comfort in knowing the facts so that I can make operational decisions for my business and my family.
Posted on 9/3/24 at 8:47 am to Hobie101
quote:
Hurricane season hasn’t peaked yet and storms are queuing up one after the other.
It is getting to peak time and the basin is dead.
The discussions within the weather community are asking whats causing this. Its a lot more interesting when things dont go to expectation.
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