re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

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Can someone explain to a novice why this hurricane isn't expected to continue on its current path and hit SW Texas and why they expect it to turn from a NW movement to a NE movement?

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During the next 12-24 h,
Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge
over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should
be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to
bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely
in southwestern Louisiana, in about 30 h. After landfall, the
cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track
is near the various consensus models.

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Can someone explain to a novice why this hurricane isn't expected to continue on its current path and hit SW Texas and why they expect it to turn from a NW movement to a NE movement?

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The
storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size

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Delta has reintensified into a major, Category 3, hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.

Delta is the 6th major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico during October in the satellite era (since 1966).

Other 5 major hurricanes in the satellite era (since 1966) in the Gulf of Mexico during October are: Inez (1966), Opal (1995), Lili (2002), Wilma (2005) and Michael (2018).

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1st advisory - Sunday 4pm - no landfall
#2 - Elmers Island
#3 - Point Aux Chene - 23 miles West
#4 - Dulac - 29 miles West
#5- Bayou Black - 14 miles West
#6- Bayou Delarge - 13 miles East
#7 - Morgan City - 20 miles West
#8 - Centerville - 21 miles West
#9 - Erath - 40 miles West
#10 - Jeanerette - 18 miles East
#11 - Delcambre - 15 miles West
#12 - Rockefeller Refuge - 40 miles West
#13 - Rockefeller Refuge - 6 miles East
#14 - Rockefeller Refuge - 7 miles West
#15 - Grand Chenier - 14 miles West
Latest - Creole - 5 miles West

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