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1
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:36 am to rds dc
is that ridge sitting over florida continuing to strengthen for some reason?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:36 am to slackster
Vermilion/Iberia fricked
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:36 am to Kingpenm3
Windy.com nailed Laura’s track
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:36 am to roguetiger15
quote:
GOM at night should help a little correct?
Nighttime doesn't change the water temperature considerations. In fact, tropical systems get a little boost in the overnight (it's not as much a factor in mature hurricanes as developing ones though).
The cooler and shallower water by the coast though, that'll help some. Just a question of how strong it is when the effect starts and how fast it's moving. If it stays moving this quick, the cooler water won't have time to make a huge difference. There should also be some shear in play by the landfall approach at least to also help weaken it some.
Still appears likely to a 3 at landfall.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:37 am to jimbeam
quote:
Vermilion/Iberia fricked
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:37 am to Duke
Seems that Cancun has been relatively lucky, lost strength down to a 2, yesterday looked like a 4? The pics I've seen aren't catastrophic.
Hope LA is as fortunate.
Hope LA is as fortunate.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:38 am to DVinBR
quote:
is that ridge sitting over florida continuing to strengthen for some reason?
I don't think its so much of it getting stronger, but that the storm is hauling arse and is going to cover more ground before the high pressure begins to dissipate.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:38 am to NorthEndZone
quote:
Even if it's just 7 feet in that 7 to 11 foot surge zone, that's going to cause a lot of problems outside of areas protected by significant levees.
I’d be a little surprised if we don’t get a surge of at least 11 feet somewhere. Those surge graphics tend to grow as landfall becomes imminent.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:39 am to Duke
quote:
Duke
You going to end up staying in New Orleans?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:39 am to GumboPot
quote:
no strengthening < 79 degrees F > strengthening
Looking at SSTs and the projected path the gulf is favorable for strengthening up to about 25-50 miles from the coast
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:39 am to tiger91
quote:
IF we were retired that would be one thing but we're not
We know. you are grain farmers
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:39 am to Ash Williams
Years back I went there for a long weekend to catch a Randy Rogers concert at Gruene Hall....I stayed at one of the resorts on Canyon Lake and went into San Marcos one afternoon/night and checked out Cheatham St.
It was a helluva trip.
It was a helluva trip.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:40 am to Duke
quote:
The cooler and shallower water by the coast though, that'll help some. Just a question of how strong it is when the effect starts and how fast it's moving. If it stays moving this quick, the cooler water won't have time to make a huge difference. There should also be some shear in play by the landfall approach at least to also help weaken it some.
That's why I've tried to keep track of how long it is forecast to stay a major (tracking the M on NHC updates). They've consistently extended how far north they believe it will be a Major. With how fast it is moving, and any broadening of the wind field that occurs, that cooler water may not be as large of an impact as we hope.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:40 am to Duke
NOLA area out of the woods then? Or is there still a chance this thing tracks more east?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:40 am to roguetiger15
quote:
so the fact that it’ll be moving to the northern portion of the GOM at night should help a little correct?
It's the correct logical thinking and I had the same thought before Delta was a hurricane however Delta is moving so fast from warm water where it will strengthen to cooler waters close to the central gulf coast that it's not going to weaken as much as we would like. Delta is just not going to spend enough time over the cooler waters to weaken before it makes landfall. The good news it won't strengthen as it taps the cooler waters and drier onshore air.
What can really help us here with this fast moving storm is shear. We need shear.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:40 am to Motorboat
quote:
We know. you are grain farmers
Is that a BINGO?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:41 am to LSU316
Still a LOT of time. Ridge or NO Ridge is the ?
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:41 am to LegendInMyMind
Needs to be. Strictly for the attention hoe
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:41 am to boxcarbarney
nola not even in the cone right now my guy
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