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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:28 am to jac1280
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:28 am to jac1280
quote:
Just for comparison.....the “new center line” is barely in the first advisory cone. NHC has some serious work to do.
NHC has a NOLA advisory bias. Need to get NOLA's attention early and often just in case.
1
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:28 am to jac1280
MOTHER frickER I AM SO SICK OF THIS YEAR
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:28 am to nugget
I'll probably go further than that, if we end up moving. Texas hill country has always been one of my favorite areas
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:28 am to LegendInMyMind
Marco was strange.. got like 11 inches of rain in Simpson county from it.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:29 am to LaBR4
quote:.
My friend sent me this off the highway 30 miles south of Cancun in Playa del Carmen leaving the Secrets Maroma Resort
Lootie has to be around there somewhere.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:29 am to NorthEndZone
quote:
Even if it's just 7 feet in that 7 to 11 foot surge zone, that's going to cause a lot of problems outside of areas protected by significant levees.
shiiiit, that’s gonna stress some areas INSIDE the levees.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:30 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
NHC needs to rethink the "potential tropical cyclone" thing which is the first picture you linked. Trying to predict storms that have yet to form is extremely difficult with today's science. You have to assume they will be WAAY off.
Yet, people like you will say "but muh wishcasters"
the thing no one wants to discuss when they link those cones from the storm's PTC/TD/weak TS days... the center or circulation bounces around a lot in those formative days
in fact... Delta's center did a reformation to the SW that took Cuba out of the cone and put the Yucatan in it
a reformation of the center of circulation is something meteorologists can't predict... just like an eyewall replacement cycle
I think that's organic enough to count towards Hurricane BINGO
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:30 am to SW2SCLA
quote:
I'll probably go further than that, if we end up moving. Texas hill country has always been one of my favorite areas
I’m just so tied down here
I guess I could sell everything, but I would have no idea where to go.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:31 am to VermilionTiger
quote:
our thoughts are irrelevant considering the best meteorologists on this planet can’t pin down a storm this far out
You’re talking out of your arse and framing it as knowledge based
Just stop
this ^
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:31 am to Bigfishchoupique
quote:
Lootie has to be around there somewhere
Last update we got of a sighting , he was surfing the lava in Hawaii
This post was edited on 10/7/20 at 10:32 am
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:31 am to SW2SCLA
quote:
I'll probably go further than that, if we end up moving. Texas hill country has always been one of my favorite areas
Without a doubt if I left LA that would be high on my list....somewhere just north of San Antonio...probably in the Canyon Lake/San Marcos area.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:31 am to GumboPot
so the fact that it’ll be moving to the northern portion of the GOM at night should help a little correct?
Do you think it makes a big difference between 7 degrees? That’s what the deviation is right now in the northern GOM
Do you think it makes a big difference between 7 degrees? That’s what the deviation is right now in the northern GOM
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:32 am to LSUFanHouston
quote:
NHC needs to rethink the "potential tropical cyclone" thing which is the first picture you linked. Trying to predict storms that have yet to form is extremely difficult with today's science. You have to assume they will be WAAY off.
I've come to this line of thinking as well. This season, particularly, has swayed me. With all the messy systems, complicated setups, and handicapped models, long range models, especially early in a system's life, have greatly struggled.
NHC should incorporate some sort of Marine Warning system that is geared to marine and shipping interests in the immediate vicinity of a system over open water. Then, as the storm forms, they can start forecasting for land interests.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:32 am to SW2SCLA
quote:Wimberley, Tx. I lived there for all 4 years of high school. Beautiful area and close as it needs to be to Austin and San Antonio.
ng. Texas hill country has always been one of my favorite areas
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:33 am to nugget
quote:
I’m just so tied down here
All of our family is here ... where do you go at age 50/51 and start over? IF we were retired that would be one thing but we're not ... sigh.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:33 am to CocoLoco
Whatever model windy.com is using has this thing going right up the state line right now!
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:33 am to boot
quote:
Marco was strange.. got like 11 inches of rain in Simpson county from it.
Marco wasn't really strange from a meteorological sense I think
everyone knew it was a small storm that was going to get sheared to shite.. which happened... the mid-level circulation and all the convection got yanked towards Alabama thanks to the shear... the low level circulation got decoupled from it all and made a breezy but clear landfall in Plaquemines Parish
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:33 am to SW2SCLA
quote:Hot as Hell
Texas hill country
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:34 am to jac1280
That would place the eye directly over my house in Mermentau Cove. Hoping for the best but now preparing for the worst.
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:34 am to Champagne
quote:
Why would you be surprised that this 24 hour trend to the West would suddenly halt now?
A) The trend doesn’t really matter.
B) The NHC typically moves slow to catch up, which is a sound strategy, but they’re now actually west of some consensus aids, which is a first for the last day or so. The aids they’re using haven’t moved west as much as they’ve had to move west to catch up. For example, this was the spaghetti model from 24 hours ago:
Here are the 6 hour changes:
Extreme western Vermilion or eastern Cameron has been the bullseye for a bit now.
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