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Started By
Message
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:09 pm to Notasnitch
quote:
I'm confused. This looks different than the other one posted a few pages before. Wtf.
The ones with like 8 tracks are the "early" guidance models the NHC likes to help guide it's forecast:
The ones with 25-50 tracks are the GFS and Euro ensemble means. They're not actual predictions, but instead used to help guide some semblance of possible outcomes if things are tweaked slightly. If the ensembles are honing in on a particular solution, it helps give confidence to the solution.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:10 pm to Festus
quote:
Sorry, but I choose to believe Steve Cap. Are you on TV Slack?
Nope.
Believe what you want old friend. That's how this thread works.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:11 pm to NorthEndZone
I remember Andrew quite well and Gustav seemed much worse for some reason. Maybe it's because I was 14 during Andrew and having fun trying to see how far we could throw a nerf football with the wind. During Gustav I had kids and owned property 
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:12 pm to bigcatfish
quote:
The guy on Fox 8
Better put some respekt on David Bernard’s name.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:12 pm to fallguy_1978
Fox 8 just said a shift to the east over the last few runs....
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:12 pm to EXPLAYER
quote:
How does New Orleans ,Slidell look like if landfall stays where it is now? Appreciate your knowledge, hell my parents in Slidell scared to death. Guess when you are 82 you get scared easier. Covid19 and all these hurricanes took a year off both their lives .
Gusts up to 50 or so mph. Some squally bands. Nothing life threatening unless you live under a water oak.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:13 pm to slackster
Have we talked about the HMON and HWRF being nearly identical on the last run?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:13 pm to Dav
quote:
Dav
quote:
respekt on David Bernard’s
Hmmmmmmmm
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:14 pm to bengalman
Gut tells me a morgan city to cocodrie landfall
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:15 pm to GREENHEAD22
quote:
So lake Charles is the new prediction?
frick that.
Either way, I feel more prepared (as one can be) for this piece of shite hurricane. Got hotel rooms ready and evac plans in place. All of my big trees got taken care of by Laura and I’m good to go if I have to.
Yes, I have been drinking whisky and three sheets to the wind on back patio after grilling... I’m done with worrying. frick the Gulf of Mexico.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:16 pm to Cosmo
quote:
Gut tells me
Thanks! Now I have a 'wait'.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:16 pm to Cosmo
I’m predicting landfall somewhere between east Texas and east Louisiana.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:16 pm to Cosmo
My gut tells me it's almost time for a BM.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:17 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
I remember Andrew quite well and Gustav seemed much worse for some reason.
Same here. For Andrew I didn’t even lose power or cable. For Gustav I lost 3 trees and power for a week. Lived in Baton Rouge for both.
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:17 pm to bengalman
quote:
Fox 8 just said a shift to the east over the last few runs....
What did they show as the landfall point, and which model?
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:17 pm to slackster
quote:
The ones with 25-50 tracks are the GFS and Euro ensemble means. They're not actual predictions, but instead used to help guide some semblance of possible outcomes if things are tweaked slightly. If the ensembles are honing in on a particular solution, it helps give confidence to the solution
Okay, this one makes my a-hole pucker. The others you posted doesn't make my a-hole pucker but makes me feel bad for lake charles
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