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re: Delta Moves On...Cleanup Begins

Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:07 pm to
Posted by bigcatfish
Member since Feb 2009
1283 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:07 pm to
The guy on Fox 8 out of New Orleans just showed some models that were just run. They shifted east and looked like the eye was going right over Baton Rouge.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:09 pm to
quote:

I'm confused. This looks different than the other one posted a few pages before. Wtf.




The ones with like 8 tracks are the "early" guidance models the NHC likes to help guide it's forecast:



The ones with 25-50 tracks are the GFS and Euro ensemble means. They're not actual predictions, but instead used to help guide some semblance of possible outcomes if things are tweaked slightly. If the ensembles are honing in on a particular solution, it helps give confidence to the solution.
Posted by Mr. Hangover
New Orleans
Member since Sep 2003
34925 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:09 pm to
Of course they did
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:10 pm to
quote:

Sorry, but I choose to believe Steve Cap. Are you on TV Slack?

Nope.


Believe what you want old friend. That's how this thread works.
Posted by Festus
With Skillet
Member since Nov 2009
86127 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:10 pm to
Posted by fallguy_1978
Best States #50
Member since Feb 2018
53506 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:11 pm to
I remember Andrew quite well and Gustav seemed much worse for some reason. Maybe it's because I was 14 during Andrew and having fun trying to see how far we could throw a nerf football with the wind. During Gustav I had kids and owned property
Posted by Dav
Dhan
Member since Feb 2010
8153 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:12 pm to
quote:

The guy on Fox 8


Better put some respekt on David Bernard’s name.
Posted by bengalman
In da Country
Member since Feb 2007
4125 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:12 pm to
Fox 8 just said a shift to the east over the last few runs....
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
91837 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:12 pm to
quote:

How does New Orleans ,Slidell look like if landfall stays where it is now? Appreciate your knowledge, hell my parents in Slidell scared to death. Guess when you are 82 you get scared easier. Covid19 and all these hurricanes took a year off both their lives .


Gusts up to 50 or so mph. Some squally bands. Nothing life threatening unless you live under a water oak.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
74986 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:13 pm to
Have we talked about the HMON and HWRF being nearly identical on the last run?
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:13 pm to
quote:

Dav


quote:

respekt on David Bernard’s


Hmmmmmmmm
Posted by Cosmo
glassman's guest house
Member since Oct 2003
131440 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:14 pm to
Gut tells me a morgan city to cocodrie landfall
Posted by zsav77
Member since Oct 2011
6280 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:15 pm to
quote:

So lake Charles is the new prediction?



frick that.

Either way, I feel more prepared (as one can be) for this piece of shite hurricane. Got hotel rooms ready and evac plans in place. All of my big trees got taken care of by Laura and I’m good to go if I have to.

Yes, I have been drinking whisky and three sheets to the wind on back patio after grilling... I’m done with worrying. frick the Gulf of Mexico.
Posted by Jake88
Member since Apr 2005
79843 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:15 pm to
Which models?
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
14258 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:16 pm to
quote:

Gut tells me


Thanks! Now I have a 'wait'.

Posted by The Mick
Member since Oct 2010
45112 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:16 pm to
I’m predicting landfall somewhere between east Texas and east Louisiana.
Posted by Oates Mustache
Member since Oct 2011
26623 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:16 pm to
My gut tells me it's almost time for a BM.
Posted by MikeBRLA
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2005
17192 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:17 pm to
quote:

I remember Andrew quite well and Gustav seemed much worse for some reason.


Same here. For Andrew I didn’t even lose power or cable. For Gustav I lost 3 trees and power for a week. Lived in Baton Rouge for both.
Posted by rmnldr
Member since Oct 2013
40297 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:17 pm to
quote:

Fox 8 just said a shift to the east over the last few runs....


What did they show as the landfall point, and which model?
Posted by Notasnitch
Member since Dec 2017
315 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:17 pm to
quote:

The ones with 25-50 tracks are the GFS and Euro ensemble means. They're not actual predictions, but instead used to help guide some semblance of possible outcomes if things are tweaked slightly. If the ensembles are honing in on a particular solution, it helps give confidence to the solution


Okay, this one makes my a-hole pucker. The others you posted doesn't make my a-hole pucker but makes me feel bad for lake charles
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