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re: Deep South winter storm and arctic outbreak - Jan. 20-23 timeframe

Posted on 1/20/25 at 5:58 am to
Posted by LSURoss
Dragon Believer
Member since Dec 2007
16763 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 5:58 am to
Models wont load on my work computer. What's the latest prediction for SWLA? Wunderground now says 2.1" AM snow
Posted by rob0710
LA
Member since Oct 2004
1266 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 5:59 am to
quote:

Just waking up….did the snow total increase? Jim Cantore is saying NOLA may get 7 inches


That's just Cantore hitting on us.
Posted by LSUneaux
Metairie and MAGA AF
Member since Mar 2014
4958 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:02 am to
quote:

According to all of those, West Feliciana parish is just about the edge of the northern line. We went from 4-8 inches to now “up to 2 inches”

I’d have never believed we’d get a dusting while Acadiana gets half a foot




Being more north doesn’t mean shite this time. If EVERYONE is below freezing, then the only thing that matters is how much juice is in the atmosphere where you are. The moisture is coming from the Gulf of America, so it makes sense places south of West Feliciana get more snow. Once you’re teetering close to or above 32, then the snow totals decrease closer to the coast.
This post was edited on 1/20/25 at 6:03 am
Posted by RanchoLaPuerto
Jena
Member since Aug 2023
2139 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:03 am to
quote:

You think it comes straight from underground aquifers to your faucet tap?


I’m saying it starts out a hell of a lot warmer than river water does.

Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24584 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:04 am to
The cold air mass is over performing and pushing the system further south.
My greatest fear for a Louisiana snowstorm. However, I’m still hopeful that BR is far enough south to get that 4-6” or more. NWS says higher amounts are still in play basically due to the dryness of the snow.
It will be the best powder this state has ever experienced.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24584 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:07 am to
quote:

Being more north doesn’t mean shite this time. If EVERYONE is below freezing, then the only thing that matters is how much juice is in the atmosphere where you are.
And if it’s too damn cold, then the juice won’t be there. It’ll be pushed to your south. Read NWS:
quote:

So, has anything changed since the
afternoon package on the 19th? Somewhat, models are a tad further
south with the main precip shield. This is likely indicating that
the dense arctic airmass is settling in a bit stronger (or
colder). This will do two things. 1) slightly more efficient
liquid/snow ratios with the cooler airmass and 2) a reposition of
the band of heaviest snow. Of course number 2 is still yet to be
determined naturally given the mesoscale influence. However, the
mesoscale models are a bit bullish outside of the 3km NAM, which
is drier and way further south. That said, with the adjustment
within globals and supporting mesoscale models, the gradient in
snowfall amounts will be tight the further north you go despite
the more efficient liquid/snow ratios.

Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
50629 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:11 am to
quote:

This is likely indicating that the dense arctic airmass is settling in a bit stronger (or colder).

It was supposed to be 26° this morning and I’m at 24.7° right now.
Posted by CaptainJ47
Gonzales
Member since Nov 2007
7795 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:12 am to
I am blown away that my camp in Belle River is expecting 3-6 inches of snow
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24584 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:15 am to
quote:

was supposed to be 26° this morning and I’m at 24.7° right now.
And as a result TWC chance of snow has dropped from 94% to 78%
Hang in there you damned gulf low!! Stay strong bitch!!
Posted by DownshiftAndFloorIt
Here
Member since Jan 2011
72064 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:39 am to
I feel qualified to say it's pretty Fn cold this morning.

Posted by ellesssuuu
Baton Rouge
Member since Mar 2016
3178 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:45 am to
I had some good powder back in my day….Oh wait different powder
Posted by fr33manator
Baton Rouge
Member since Oct 2010
134577 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:46 am to
It's cold but it's not that bad. Yet
Posted by moontigr
Dark Side of the Moon
Member since Nov 2020
7561 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:52 am to
It would be pretty cool to be at a beach with snow on it

This post was edited on 1/20/25 at 6:54 am
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36494 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 6:57 am to
I can confirm this cold is a little colder than expected.

High of -1 here with an "Extreme Cold Warning" tonight for windchills between -35 and -50.

NWS highlighting something I mentioned the other day. Hard to place the kickass band but should be near the ice/snow transition point.

I betcha its gonna be 27-29 degrees for the locals that get the bigger totals.
Posted by tigerfoot
Alexandria
Member since Sep 2006
61421 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 7:07 am to
I am now betting Alexandria gets a few flakes. Crap.
Posted by BOSCEAUX
Where the Down Boys go.
Member since Mar 2008
52374 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 7:11 am to
I’ll take any of those models but the NAM. It’s the only one that keeps the majority pushed east.
Posted by deltaland
Member since Mar 2011
102609 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 7:12 am to
18 degrees here wind chill of 8






Looks like no snow for me tomorrow though :(
Posted by Suntiger
STG or BR or somewhere else
Member since Feb 2007
36209 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 7:18 am to
quote:

18 degrees here wind chill of 8


What’s the heat index temp though?
Posted by Tigahs24Seven
Charlie Kirk's America
Member since Nov 2007
15005 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 7:24 am to
quote:

My greatest fear for a Louisiana snowstorm. However, I’m still hopeful that BR is far enough south to get that 4-6” or more. NWS says higher amounts are still in play basically due to the dryness of the snow.
It will be the best powder this state has ever experienced.


That is really whack...I hope your family member isn't the one who needs emergency help and the ambulance can't get to them in a rural setting...use your head. We can't handle snow like that.
Posted by bayoubengals88
LA
Member since Sep 2007
24584 posts
Posted on 1/20/25 at 7:24 am to
quote:

I’ll take any of those models but the NAM. It’s the only one that keeps the majority pushed east.
It has the low too far south is what I’m seeing.
BR area would still get 1-2” but I don’t want this damn thing coming down to the wire!
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