Posted by
Message
ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
67114 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Not that his initial advice on dealing with this was wrong lol.
Admitting that it’s way more widespread and, therefor, less lethal is admitting to being wrong and the main reason the numbers are lower. Go figure.


lsu13lsu
Member since Jan 2008
8748 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Invention Quadruples Vent Capacity

I knew American ingenuity would come into play.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
80
SabiDojo
South Alabama Fan
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
81875 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
The markets in London were filled to capacity not even a week ago, but of course social distancing is working


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
61
JohnnyKilroy
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
26241 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

dmitting that it’s way more widespread and, therefor, less lethal is admitting to being wrong and the main reason the numbers are lower. Go figure.


Except that's not what ferguson said at all. He actually said that the assertion that it may be more widespread than initially thought supports more intensive social distancing measures be put in place.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
13
IAmNERD
Auburn Fan
Member since May 2017
7130 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

EvErYoNe iS tHe nExT iTaLy"

To be fair, I've read in just this thread that Spain, UK, NYC, and NOLA are all the next Italy.


rds dc
Colorado Fan
Member since Jun 2008
16471 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:


Anyone talking about how the Imperial College model was just debunked by the very scientist who made it? His initial forecast predicted 500,000 deaths in the UK. He now thinks it likely that total will be less than 20,000.


He based that on updated measures that the UK is taking and the fact that the UK should soon have the testing capacity to deploy the South Korean model. When they wrote the paper the UK was planning to deploy the Herd Immunity strategy.

quote:

He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.



LINK

This is good news and what a researcher should do as more information becomes available. My main critique of the IC paper was that they highlighted the worst case scenario but also said:

quote:

In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour


LINK

So they said, "This is unlikely to happen, but here you go anyway for click bait" which rightfully opens them up to criticism.

quote:

Turns out the virus is more transmissible than previously thought. Which means a large swath of people already were infected without ever knowing it.


This is based on a paper that uses some extreme assumptions just like the Imperial College paper. So two sides of the same coin.

They base their model on the assumption that COVID19 is about half as severe as the seasonal flu producing a much lower CFR. So in that modeled version of COVID19, the only way to produce the deaths that are being reported in the UK is for about half the population to already be infected.

LINK

When the IC paper came out I pointed out that people should look past the death totals and look at the social distancing portion of the paper. Ferguson still believes that social distancing is a major key.

quote:

New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.



The New Scientist article mixes comments from Ferguson with info from the model that shows half of UK being infected. So, as always, people should take the time to read the article and the supporting documents.


JohnnyKilroy
New Orleans Pelicans Fan
Cajun Navy Vice Admiral
Member since Oct 2012
26241 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***


Thank you


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
02
VABuckeye
Ohio State Fan
Oak Hill, VA
Member since Dec 2007
27653 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

So, as always, people should take the time to read the article and the supporting documents.


On this site? Nah, they'd rather just read the headline then make sweeping conclusions.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
73
GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
6699 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Spain is definitely far worse than Italy. Spain just reported 7457 new cases today, after 6922 yesterday. That's two days in a row higher than Italy's biggest day of 6557.

And Spain has a smaller population than Italy.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
61
RollTide1987
Alabama Fan
Washington, D.C.
Member since Nov 2009
49422 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

He based that on updated measures that the UK is taking


Measures that began two days ago. It takes two weeks, or so they tell us, for social distancing to begin having an effect.



Replies (0)
Replies (0)
90
GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
6699 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

He based that on updated measures that the UK is taking and the fact that the UK should soon have the testing capacity to deploy the South Korean model


Which is basically what we are doing. Restrict people's movements and gathering until we can test enough people to quickly identify the newly infected and isolate them.


SabiDojo
South Alabama Fan
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
81875 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Updated measures they just took? By the numbers we are seeing, those measures are too little WAYYYYY late


uscpuke
Wofford Fan
Member since Jan 2004
4079 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
already discussed
This post was edited on 3/26 at 11:17 am


BRIllini07
Chicago Cubs Fan
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Feb 2015
1878 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
That’s an inaccurate tweet based compared to what the author actually said. But see discussion above.


SabiDojo
South Alabama Fan
Open to any suggestions.
Member since Nov 2010
81875 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
tldr: Doomsday doctor backtracks with super shitty explanation
This post was edited on 3/26 at 11:17 am


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
81
GOP_Tiger
LSU Fan
Baton Rouge
Member since Jan 2005
6699 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
The Imperial study had obvious flaws. I will refer you to my comment at the time discussing them.

LINK

But it was important to make people aware of the possibility of inaction. It changed history and saved us from a complete meltdown of our hospital system.


HailHailtoMichigan!
LSU Fan
Mission Viejo, CA
Member since Mar 2012
62673 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Still can't believe mardi gras wasn't cancelled in NOLA.



ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
67114 posts

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
I find it quite believable considering nothing anywhere was shut down.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
70
Tiguar
Minnesota Fan
Montana
Member since Mar 2012
29242 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
quote:

Still can't believe mardi gras wasn't cancelled in NOLA.


it's easy to say this in hindsight but look at the MENSA posters we have here right now with evidence right in front of them.

imagine if they cancelled mardi gras in the middle of february, there may have been actual riots
This post was edited on 3/26 at 11:47 am


Kingpenm3
McNeese State Fan
Xanadu
Member since Aug 2011
7643 posts
 Online 

re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms

quote:

Coronavirus: Iceland’s mass testing finds half of carriers show no symptoms


Jump to page
Page First 922 923 924 925 926 ... 1188
Jump to page
first pageprev pagePage 924 of 1188next pagelast page

Back to top

logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram