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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:45 am to JohnnyKilroy
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:45 am to JohnnyKilroy
quote:Admitting that it’s way more widespread and, therefor, less lethal is admitting to being wrong and the main reason the numbers are lower. Go figure.
Not that his initial advice on dealing with this was wrong lol.
2
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:51 am to TheCaterpillar
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:51 am to ell_13
The markets in London were filled to capacity not even a week ago, but of course social distancing is working 
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:52 am to ell_13
quote:
dmitting that it’s way more widespread and, therefor, less lethal is admitting to being wrong and the main reason the numbers are lower. Go figure.
Except that's not what ferguson said at all. He actually said that the assertion that it may be more widespread than initially thought supports more intensive social distancing measures be put in place.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:52 am to Tiguar
quote:
EvErYoNe iS tHe nExT iTaLy"
To be fair, I've read in just this thread that Spain, UK, NYC, and NOLA are all the next Italy.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:53 am to RollTide1987
quote:
Anyone talking about how the Imperial College model was just debunked by the very scientist who made it? His initial forecast predicted 500,000 deaths in the UK. He now thinks it likely that total will be less than 20,000.
He based that on updated measures that the UK is taking and the fact that the UK should soon have the testing capacity to deploy the South Korean model. When they wrote the paper the UK was planning to deploy the Herd Immunity strategy.
quote:
He said that expected increases in National Health Service capacity and ongoing restrictions to people’s movements make him “reasonably confident” the health service can cope when the predicted peak of the epidemic arrives in two or three weeks. UK deaths from the disease are now unlikely to exceed 20,000, he said, and could be much lower.
LINK
This is good news and what a researcher should do as more information becomes available. My main critique of the IC paper was that they highlighted the worst case scenario but also said:
quote:
In the (unlikely) absence of any control measures or spontaneous changes in individual behaviour
LINK
So they said, "This is unlikely to happen, but here you go anyway for click bait" which rightfully opens them up to criticism.
quote:
Turns out the virus is more transmissible than previously thought. Which means a large swath of people already were infected without ever knowing it.
This is based on a paper that uses some extreme assumptions just like the Imperial College paper. So two sides of the same coin.
They base their model on the assumption that COVID19 is about half as severe as the seasonal flu producing a much lower CFR. So in that modeled version of COVID19, the only way to produce the deaths that are being reported in the UK is for about half the population to already be infected.
LINK
When the IC paper came out I pointed out that people should look past the death totals and look at the social distancing portion of the paper. Ferguson still believes that social distancing is a major key.
quote:
New data from the rest of Europe suggests that the outbreak is running faster than expected, said Ferguson. As a result, epidemiologists have revised their estimate of the reproduction number (R0) of the virus. This measure of how many other people a carrier usually infects is now believed to be just over three, he said, up from 2.5. “That adds more evidence to support the more intensive social distancing measures,” he said.
The New Scientist article mixes comments from Ferguson with info from the model that shows half of UK being infected. So, as always, people should take the time to read the article and the supporting documents.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:54 am to rds dc
Thank you
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:59 am to rds dc
quote:
So, as always, people should take the time to read the article and the supporting documents.
On this site? Nah, they'd rather just read the headline then make sweeping conclusions.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 10:59 am to IAmNERD
Spain is definitely far worse than Italy. Spain just reported 7457 new cases today, after 6922 yesterday. That's two days in a row higher than Italy's biggest day of 6557.
And Spain has a smaller population than Italy.
And Spain has a smaller population than Italy.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:00 am to rds dc
quote:
He based that on updated measures that the UK is taking
Measures that began two days ago. It takes two weeks, or so they tell us, for social distancing to begin having an effect.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:01 am to rds dc
quote:
He based that on updated measures that the UK is taking and the fact that the UK should soon have the testing capacity to deploy the South Korean model
Which is basically what we are doing. Restrict people's movements and gathering until we can test enough people to quickly identify the newly infected and isolate them.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:01 am to rds dc
Updated measures they just took? By the numbers we are seeing, those measures are too little WAYYYYY late
By the numbers we are seeing, those measures are too little WAYYYYY late Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:14 am to SabiDojo
already discussed
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 11:17 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:15 am to uscpuke
That’s an inaccurate tweet based compared to what the author actually said. But see discussion above.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:16 am to BRIllini07
tldr: Doomsday doctor backtracks with super shitty explanation
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 11:17 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:44 am to GOP_Tiger
Still can't believe mardi gras wasn't cancelled in NOLA.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:46 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
I find it quite believable considering nothing anywhere was shut down.
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:46 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Still can't believe mardi gras wasn't cancelled in NOLA.
it's easy to say this in hindsight but look at the MENSA posters we have here right now with evidence right in front of them.
imagine if they cancelled mardi gras in the middle of february, there may have been actual riots
This post was edited on 3/26/20 at 11:47 am
Posted on 3/26/20 at 11:47 am to Tiguar
https://english.alarabiya.net/en/features/2020/03/25/Coronavirus-Iceland-s-mass-testing-finds-half-of-carriers-show-no-symptoms
quote:
Coronavirus: Iceland’s mass testing finds half of carriers show no symptoms
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