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Started By
Message
re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 1/31/20 at 10:44 am to BamaCoaster
Posted on 1/31/20 at 10:44 am to BamaCoaster
quote:
If you are infected, you have a 2.197% of dying.
Every person on this board will survive this.
Worry more about the attempted coup in our country, the food you eat, the water you digest, or a host of other things that are more detrimental to our collective than this bull shite.
I have children so I worry about this even if it is a nastier version of the flu that is less lethal than SARS.
1
Posted on 1/31/20 at 10:51 am to Volvagia
quote:
I believe they are saying infection from a new strain.
As for the statement that reinfection of the same virus is likely: that isn’t an insidious trait of this virus in particular, or a statement that the virus is spewing clinically relevant substrains.
Coronaviruses are all enveloped, which means the virus hides under a sheath of celular membrane. This makes it easy to hide and dodge immune systems and responses at the cost of being more vulnerable outside of the host (aka can’t persist on a door knob).
Viral function can be left intact with only minor alteration to viral glycoproteins, which is the only antigens your immune system can target.
It’s not unheard of to have a persistent infection from dealing with an enveloped virus, where it changes its antigenic presentation constantly just enough to prevent the immune system from wiping it out entirely (this trait is speaking of the overall grouping, not coronaviruses in particular).
Thanks for the breakdown. I understand a tiny portion of it, but appreciate it nonetheless.
Viruses are a mystery to me. Technically they are not living things right (as opposed to bacteria)? I remember reading the Hot Zone years ago and the discussion on viruses was enlightening.
How a non-living thing can pick up new adaptations that allow it to better replicate is another mystery for a non-expert like myself.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 11:34 am to Bluegrass_Cat
quote:
They are waiting so people have the option to get out.
"We're gonna stop flights to contain the virus, but give you a week to get out of the area we're stopping flights to contain the virus in."
Delta: We're scared of offending the Chinese, so frick y'all.
This post was edited on 1/31/20 at 11:35 am
Posted on 1/31/20 at 11:41 am to TigerstuckinMS
WOW
JUST IN: New York City has its first confirmed case of coronavirus in the borough Queens, the New York Daily News reported
JUST IN: New York City has its first confirmed case of coronavirus in the borough Queens, the New York Daily News reported
Posted on 1/31/20 at 11:43 am to CivilTiger83
quote:
If you are infected, you have a 2.197% of dying.
Every person on this board will survive this.
Not if 100 of us get it. 2 of us are dead.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 11:46 am to Shane4689
quote:
JUST IN: New York City has its first confirmed case of coronavirus in the borough Queens, the New York Daily News reported
At this point, just take a map and trace all the flight paths out of China centered on January 25th and that is where the virus is now. The only question is will it spread as easily outside of China?
Posted on 1/31/20 at 11:53 am to slackster
quote:
It's not absurd at all when you realize it's ineffective.
Yea you don’t know what you are talking about
It’s not effective when you wait until the virus is spreading here to suspend flights. Your approach to not worry until people start dying here is a terrible idea. Of course it’s too late then and you aren’t putting that genie back in the bottle.
But keep worrying about your fictional economic losses
This post was edited on 1/31/20 at 11:59 am
Posted on 1/31/20 at 11:53 am to Shane4689
LINK
quote:
Eight NYPD precincts in Queens were warned early Friday to be careful if visiting Elmhurst Hospital over a possible coronavirus patient, the Daily News has learned.
The message, sent at 1:56 a.m., said an Asian male in his 50s was admitted to Elmhurst with the illness. But the city’s Department of Health said it has no information about a confirmed case anywhere in the five boroughs.
The FDNY and the NYPD also could not immediately confirm a coronavirus patient in New York.
The message obtained by The News warned officers to take precautions if at Elmhurt.
“Make sure the officer has proper gear (mask) to protect themselves," the message said.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:00 pm to Shane4689
quote:
WOW
Why is this a "WOW"?
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:19 pm to notiger1997
Yeah I mean it’s high season for Chinese tourism, places like Vegas will have this in a week or two for sure.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:24 pm to tide06
Can we pin this already? WTF
I mean clearly this saga is going to persist for a while, major emergency or not
I mean clearly this saga is going to persist for a while, major emergency or not
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:26 pm to Pettifogger
quote:
1. @CDCgov says all 195 passengers evacuated from CHina will be quarantined for 14 days. #2019nCoV
Honkus will be stuck for longer than first thought.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:27 pm to tide06
I'm sure this has been discussed but I read that the 1918 Flu was much more deadly in the 2nd wave. If this continues to spread at the lower mortality rate for 6-12 months, does it significantly increase the chances that it will mutate in to a much more deadly strain later in 2020?
For example, I don't think the seasonal flu changes that significantly in mortality rates from year to year(?).
For example, I don't think the seasonal flu changes that significantly in mortality rates from year to year(?).
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:30 pm to rds dc
quote:
Findings
In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75?815 individuals (95% CrI 37?304–130?330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.
LINK
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:34 pm to rds dc
Is that saying the R0 is 2.68?
ETA- if so, why is this spreading so much faster than SARS when the SARS R0 was between 2-3
ETA- if so, why is this spreading so much faster than SARS when the SARS R0 was between 2-3
This post was edited on 1/31/20 at 12:42 pm
Posted on 1/31/20 at 12:37 pm to TigerTatorTots
I wonder how much money the nail salons and Chinese restaurants are losing because people don’t want to be around them being scared they are going to catch something.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 1:06 pm to Volvagia
Consider me intrigued! Has that MRSA info been published yet, or is it still in the works? Asking for an infectious disease geek.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 1:10 pm to TigerTatorTots
Because R-0 is a behavioral metric that isn’t intended for absolute translation in the real world. It’s just a mathematical constant to be plugged in epidemiological models.
The cause for the difference is likely the rural vs urban initial dispersal. For whatever reason, it had a spike at the market, causing a lot of people to become infected, who then left and infected others at the ~2.68 rate.
The cause for the difference is likely the rural vs urban initial dispersal. For whatever reason, it had a spike at the market, causing a lot of people to become infected, who then left and infected others at the ~2.68 rate.
Posted on 1/31/20 at 1:14 pm to FullFontE
quote:
Consider me intrigued! Has that MRSA info been published yet, or is it still in the works? Asking for an infectious disease geek.
It’s been years and work continued after I left. I will say though that it was under contract with Pfizer so while some periphery projects were published, the core results and drug pre screens were all proprietary.
Give me an email can I can throw a background publication your way. I am not a co author but it’s still close enough to a trail to being doxxed.
“I work at Burger King, making flame broiled whoppers; I wear paper hats....would you like an apple pie with that.....”
LINK
This post was edited on 1/31/20 at 1:21 pm
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