re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***

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Their R value appears to be the same so pending other data about immunity (e.g., those T-cell studies wawa has been pointing seem to indicate some have a natural immunity whether that prevents infection, limits the severity, and/or both)

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New preprint from folks at Oxford looking at: The impact of host resistance on cumulative mortality and the threshold of herd immunity for SARS-CoV-2.

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These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave.

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Short enough read.

(Seems to be a paper discussing how to adjust models.)

Yeah, it requires performing flow cytometry to identify a particular line of T cells which is very time and labor intensive, speaking from experience......

Florida health officials counting the death of someone in their 20s....that died in a motorcycle accident.

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FOX 35 News found this out after asking Orange County Health Officer Dr. Raul Pino whether two coronavirus victims who were in their 20s had any underlying conditions. One of his answers surprised us.

“The first one didn’t have any. He died in a motorcycle accident,” Pino said.

Dr. Pino was asked if the man’s data was removed.

“I don’t think so. I have to double-check,” Pino said. “We were arguing, discussing, or trying to argue with the state. Not because of the numbers -- it’s 100…it doesn’t make any difference if it's 99 -- but the fact that the individual didn’t die from COVID-19…died in the crash. But you could actually argue that it could have been the COVID-19 that caused him to crash. I don’t know the conclusion of that one.”

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.6%, as a universal IFR, is probably pretty close to right.

My issue, and has been for awhile, is the age stratification is so extreme that a universal IFR seems pointless.

The infection fatality rate of COVID-19 in Stockholm – Technical report



So they came up with .58% overall IFR. .09% IFR below age of 70, and 4.29% IFR age 70 and above. That is an extreme difference, 47X.

Also, here is the chart for a few countries with their median age of death:



A universal IFR for ebola makes sense because it killed 50% of people pretty much regardless of age, but for COVID not so much.

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Thought this would go well here

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Check three posts up from yours, buddy!




Hahaha.

The person who made that chart, an OSU podcaster, has been so irritating lately regarding COVID, and I now see why so many OSU fans were irritated by his OSU takes as well.

And it was one thing when the MSB was making fun of his amateurish legal analysis of Title IX law during the whole Urban Meyer/Zach Smith ordeal.

And while his data gathering and visualizations are decent enough (like you posted) hopefully we’re not going to start using his amateurish (and straight up dishonest at times) data analysis as well.

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Our population is around 330 million. When excess deaths attributed to COVID are 198,000 the per capita death rate will be .06%. I think we've already experienced at least 198,000 excess deaths.

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This is probably true.

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COVID deaths are starting to accelerate again in almost every state. We have a long way to go before its over.

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This isn’t true. The states initially hardest hit, are still in the decline. In fact, I saw I graph earlier (it may have been from COVID Tracking Project the OP is using) that shows deaths decreasing in the Northeast and Midwest, slightly increasing the West, and noticeably increasing in the South.

And Nate Silver has pointed out that the biggest predictor in trend changes is the severity of the first wave. This makes sense since people are probably more inclined to take measures, there is a smaller portion of the population to infect, and similarly more immunity to slow the spread, even slightly.

Considering the average age of excess covid deaths is 80, we are going to have extremely low mortality years upcoming.

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Most experts that I've seen don't think much more than 10% of us have been infected. I don't expect a quick vaccine either.

I may be describing a worst case scenario but if I was in charge that is what I would plan for.

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You are the guy that follows Dr. Brilliant right?