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re: Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) ***W.H.O. DECLARES A GLOBAL PANDEMIC***
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:37 pm to Sasquatch Smash
Posted on 7/16/20 at 2:37 pm to Sasquatch Smash
UAB Hospital in Birmingham now has 101 patients currently in the hospital being treated for COVID-19. This appears to be the most that they've had at a single time. According to UAB, "... 101 patients means 101 patients receiving in-hospital, bed-specific care. These are patients who are either very sick, unable to get better, or potentially survive without medical attention and care."
2
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:28 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
I'm really curious about the UAB numbers.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:31 pm to GoCrazyAuburn
Every area is going to go through a peak. No area will avoid it. There should be nothing surprising about this.
This isn’t a “second wave”. They never had a first wave.
This isn’t a “second wave”. They never had a first wave.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:43 pm to lsupride87
quote:
It’s comparing a declawed house cat to an alien tiger with nuclear warheads attached to it and a chainsaw for a penis
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:43 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
Cats have induced ovulation. The males have spines on their penises, which induced the egg to drop.
There's a reason why when you see lions or tigers breeding on a nature show the girl looks so pissed off and the male is holding her down, biting her neck...and why he bails out so quickly when he pulls out...
Posted on 7/16/20 at 3:48 pm to GOP_Tiger
quote:
Also, today was another really good day for national testing results. Out of 432,880 tests run, there were 18,195 positive, for a positive rate of 4.2%. That means that we've now gone an entire week where the highest rate was 4.5%. We continue to see lower cases when compared week to week, even though we're running more tests.
Reopening has not caused a spike in any way shape or form. We are still eliminating the virus. Also, so far, Minnesota is still seeing a decline, though we'll obviously have to see if that holds up. I personally expect very little spread from the protests, as I think that there's almost no risk outdoors.
Where has GOP_Tiger been? I was really counting on his prognostication abilities. I want my money back.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 4:06 pm to Roll Tide Ravens
quote:
UAB Hospital in Birmingham
How many are ICU? Seriously, how hard would it be for them to show those numbers over time. The fact that they won't provide that makes me suspicious.
How many are nursing home patients who don't need hospitalization but who are being held until they can be returned?
"Inpatients" can mean a wide range of things. And for a place like UAB, 101 inpatients is far from being overrun.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 4:37 pm to WaWaWeeWa
quote:Agreed.
Every area is going to go through a peak.
If I recall correctly, Stockholm peaked out at 220-240 hospitalizations per million. Which is quite interesting because here in Northwest Arkansas (pop. 550,000) we appear to have peaked a week ago at a total of 140 hospitalizations, down to 120 now.
I would have to do more research, but just by the seat of my pants, I would say 240-280 hospitalizations per million is probably accurate for an average for each metro. I know about NYC, but they were a nursing home stacking outlier, imo. Metros will peak at different times so comparing states will be subject to that drawback.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 8:17 pm to Sasquatch Smash
quote:
There have been pretty bad flu pandemics in the last 50-70 years, 1957-58 Asian Flu and 1968-1969 Hong Kong Flu. Both have a body count in the millions.
Neither of those come close to the amount of US deaths that COVID will cause.
Over its two year run the Asian flu caused an estimated 116,000 US deaths. That death total was estimated after the fact based on excess deaths.
The COVID pandemic is already blamed for 140,000 US deaths. That death figure, which includes confirmed and suspected COVID deaths, is an undercount. The COVID pandemic is still young. We have a long way to go this year and next.
At some time in the future epidemiologists will estimate the COVID death total by analysing excess deaths. The COVID death total will be massive compared to all but the 1918 flu.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 8:22 pm to Ronaldo Burgundiaz
quote:
I would have to do more research, but just by the seat of my pants, I would say 240-280 hospitalizations per million is probably accurate for an average for each metro. I know about NYC, but they were a nursing home stacking outlier, imo. Metros will peak at different times so comparing states will be subject to that drawback.
It will also depend on population density and how effective social distancing is. Some places will have a sharp peak that peaks higher and some will have a lower but protracted curve.
But the overall saturation point has been pretty consistent
Another unknown factor is what the populations natural immunity is. Some populations may have less previous immunity to other coronaviruses just due to randomness.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 8:24 pm to Whiznot
Everyone telling us the future of Covid-19 has been just guessing.
And wild arse wrong guesses at that.
I wish y’all would just stop.
And wild arse wrong guesses at that.
I wish y’all would just stop.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 10:20 pm to Bullfrog
The numbers are so messed up it’s impossible to tell anything in the moment. Only looking back months later will we be able to possibly figure things out.
Posted on 7/16/20 at 11:22 pm to Whiznot
quote:
Over its two year run the Asian flu caused an estimated 116,000 US deaths. That death total was estimated after the fact based on excess deaths.
The COVID pandemic is already blamed for 140,000 US deaths.
Great...now adjust for population...or do simple percentages.
That total in 1957-58 was 0.6% of the US population. Currently SARS 2.0 deaths are at 0.04%.
(I believe 0.6 is 15 times greater than 0.04, and would require ~2 million people to die of SARS 2.0 in the US to match that stat. Late night math, so I may be wrong.)
This post was edited on 7/16/20 at 11:32 pm
Posted on 7/17/20 at 12:53 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:Your math is incorrect. The US population in 1958 was 174.9 million. So the 116,000 deaths was 0.066% of the US population, which is 55% higher than COVID’s 0.043%.
Great...now adjust for population...or do simple percentages.
That total in 1957-58 was 0.6% of the US population. Currently SARS 2.0 deaths are at 0.04%.
(I believe 0.6 is 15 times greater than 0.04, and would require ~2 million people to die of SARS 2.0 in the US to match that stat. Late night math, so I may be wrong.)
In other words, COVID deaths will have to be about 219,000 to have the same per capita death rate as the 1957-1958 pandemic. Of course, that would be despite medicine has improved greatly over the last 60 years and far more drastic measures put in place to stop COVID. US is probably older though so that works against it now a bit, although life expectancy is about 9 years longer nowadays as well.
Posted on 7/17/20 at 1:03 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:In mid-May there was a local news story pointing out that Houston had like a 12 day lag (and up 1 day in the course of week) in reporting deaths.
The numbers are so messed up it’s impossible to tell anything in the moment. Only looking back months later will we be able to possibly figure things out.
That is obviously an unusually long lag (and then another long lag to get state data reported to CDC and entered eventually). And since deaths have increased quite a bit since then, I can’t imagine the lag has improved much, if it hasn’t worsened.
But if it’s still relatively consistent (10-14 days), then at least a crude trend should be able to be estimated. But if it’s like 3 weeks now (or conversely less than a week) then it probably differs to much to determine even a crude estimate of the trend without knowing the changes in the lag time.
That said, I think it’s still pretty clear that things have gotten worse. How much worse though is up in the air, in Houston. Nationally the trend estimate should be a bit less fuzzy, which is a benefit of many jurisdictions reporting, although it probably makes the day to day a bit more variable.
Posted on 7/17/20 at 1:13 am to Sasquatch Smash
quote:It seems to have gone unnoticed, but the CDC updates their IFR estimate from 0.27% to 0.65% which is in line with the large meta-analyses and the WHO’s estimate as well. In addition, their low end estimate is now 0.5% while their high end estimate is 0.8%.
Math based off of 0.027 x 7.8 billion, nothing fancy as far as conversions are concerned so it may be wrong.
Their R value appears to be the same so pending other data about immunity (e.g., those T-cell studies wawa has been pointing seem to indicate some have a natural immunity whether that prevents infection, limits the severity, and/or both), then whatever the estimate your deaths was, it will most likely be 2.2 to 2.6 times higher (0.6% to 0.7% IFR) or 1.85 to 2.96 times higher if we use the CDC’s low and high estimates.
Here is the CDC’s updated estimates:
CDC updates COVID estimates and scenarios
This post was edited on 7/17/20 at 1:17 am
Posted on 7/17/20 at 4:57 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
It seems to have gone unnoticed, but the CDC updates their IFR estimate from 0.27% to 0.65% which is in line with the large meta-analyses and the WHO’s estimate as well. In addition, their low end estimate is now 0.5% while their high end estimate is 0.8%.
More info in that update:
% Hospitalized who die:
18-49 years old: 2%
50-64 years old: 9.8%
>65 years old: 28.1%
% of cases hospitalized by age group not listed
The meta-study linked for the updated IFR is this one:
medrxiv
Posted on 7/17/20 at 7:16 am to buckeye_vol
Did they have an equivalent amount of LTC facilities per capital back then? That has been a big driver of deaths.
Posted on 7/17/20 at 7:17 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Your math is incorrect. The US population in 1958 was 174.9 million. So the 116,000 deaths was 0.066% of the US population, which is 55% higher than COVID’s 0.043%.
Thanks for keeping me straight...I am unsurprised I misplaced a decimal using my phone as I was falling asleep. Haha.
Found a figure that goes a bit with my point:
This post was edited on 7/17/20 at 7:32 am
Posted on 7/17/20 at 7:42 am to BRIllini07
One of the British agencies seems to be incorrectly counting deaths.
Checking a positive database with a death database. If you've ever tested positive and die, it's counted as a CoviD death.
Discussions about this on UnHerd/Lockdown TV.
Checking a positive database with a death database. If you've ever tested positive and die, it's counted as a CoviD death.
quote:
People living in England have become increasingly concerned in the face of Public Health England’s (PHE) figures demonstrating a relentless daily toll of more than a hundred COVID-associated deaths several days a week
quote:
Here, it seems that PHE regularly looks for people on the NHS database who have ever tested positive, and simply checks to see if they are still alive or not. PHE does not appear to consider how long ago the COVID test result was, nor whether the person has been successfully treated in hospital and discharged to the community. Anyone who has tested COVID positive but subsequently died at a later date of any cause will be included on the PHE COVID death figures.
By this PHE definition, no one with COVID in England is allowed to ever recover from their illness. A patient who has tested positive, but successfully treated and discharged from hospital, will still be counted as a COVID death even if they had a heart attack or were run over by a bus three months later.
Discussions about this on UnHerd/Lockdown TV.
This post was edited on 7/17/20 at 10:34 am
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