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Started By
Message
CMC Model Fantasy Land (Jan 30) Showing a "Snowpocalypse" for NLA
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:04 pm
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:04 pm
NWS:
Medium range models continue to struggle with forecast scenario
beyond Thursday in strong northwesterly flow. Some of the
operational model guidance is out of step with ensemble means as
well. Operational models are drier than the ensembles on Saturday
with another cold frontal passage. Forecast confidence on
precipitation occurring isn`t all that high, but for continuity
with the neighboring offices, will hold in mention of
precipitation. Operational ECMWF currently an outlier with
significant low development over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday
into Monday, with other models waiting until system gets out into
the Atlantic.
18-20"
Medium range models continue to struggle with forecast scenario
beyond Thursday in strong northwesterly flow. Some of the
operational model guidance is out of step with ensemble means as
well. Operational models are drier than the ensembles on Saturday
with another cold frontal passage. Forecast confidence on
precipitation occurring isn`t all that high, but for continuity
with the neighboring offices, will hold in mention of
precipitation. Operational ECMWF currently an outlier with
significant low development over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday
into Monday, with other models waiting until system gets out into
the Atlantic.
18-20"
This post was edited on 1/21/19 at 5:08 pm
12
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:05 pm to DVinBR
Fake news
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:06 pm to DVinBR
Model.Fantasy.Showing in title.
I'm disappointed after clicking.
I'm disappointed after clicking.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:07 pm to Cdawg
quote:
Model.Fantasy.Showing in title.
I'm disappointed after clicking.
Yeah, I thought this was going to be like that Sex Island thing, but with models.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:09 pm to DVinBR
I don't know when, but we are getting something this year.
All the models flirting with it the last few systems indicate to me the weather pattern keeps trying to set up for it. We just need all the pieces to fall into place.
All the models flirting with it the last few systems indicate to me the weather pattern keeps trying to set up for it. We just need all the pieces to fall into place.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:21 pm to DVinBR
Wait I thought the world was melting because of global warming? Why is there snow in Louisiana?
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:26 pm to DVinBR
Didnt some projection a few week back show snow snow for last week? That model sucks.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:29 pm to DVinBR
I was about to say.... no one would be ready around here for 18" of snow.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:32 pm to DVinBR
Meanwhile the GFS at the same time
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:35 pm to DVinBR
Get yo milk and bread now baws!
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:35 pm to Lsuhoohoo
The people in the know will point out that this is too far out to take seriously.
Still fun to dream though
Still fun to dream though
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:37 pm to Clyde Tipton
quote:
All the models flirting with it the last few systems indicate to me the weather pattern keeps trying to set up for it. We just need all the pieces to fall into place.
Yep.
They well may not tie together right, but here's the window right here.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:38 pm to DVinBR
just thinking about LA having to manage a foot and a half of snow.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:41 pm to AbitaFan08
quote:
just thinking about LA having to manage a foot and a half of snow.
they wouldn't manage, just sit at home and drink until it melts
Posted on 1/21/19 at 3:45 pm to DVinBR
I was told we were getting snow on the 23rd.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 4:06 pm to BMoney
Where at on the 23rd?
Posted on 1/21/19 at 4:18 pm to DVinBR
Wasn't this the same forecast for tomorrow that was given over a week ago?
Posted on 1/21/19 at 5:04 pm to Lsuhoohoo
Medium range models continue to struggle with forecast scenario
beyond Thursday in strong northwesterly flow. Some of the
operational model guidance is out of step with ensemble means as
well. Operational models are drier than the ensembles on Saturday
with another cold frontal passage. Forecast confidence on
precipitation occurring isn`t all that high, but for continuity
with the neighboring offices, will hold in mention of
precipitation. Operational ECMWF currently an outlier with
significant low development over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday
into Monday, with other models waiting until system gets out into
the Atlantic.
beyond Thursday in strong northwesterly flow. Some of the
operational model guidance is out of step with ensemble means as
well. Operational models are drier than the ensembles on Saturday
with another cold frontal passage. Forecast confidence on
precipitation occurring isn`t all that high, but for continuity
with the neighboring offices, will hold in mention of
precipitation. Operational ECMWF currently an outlier with
significant low development over the central Gulf of Mexico Sunday
into Monday, with other models waiting until system gets out into
the Atlantic.
This post was edited on 1/21/19 at 5:06 pm
Posted on 1/21/19 at 5:10 pm to DVinBR
This next weekend system is our best shot thus far but still in that troublesome mid range that hasn't been stellar for any model this winter.
As always, we'll know more later.
As always, we'll know more later.
Posted on 1/21/19 at 6:14 pm to AbitaFan08
quote:
LA having to manage a foot and a half of snow.
Those Yankees in north La can handle it. They are use to snow
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