- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
1
Posted on 1/22/19 at 10:55 am to DavidTheGnome
Thread went quiet, I'm guessing because the models have left us snowless. 
Let's take a look at what we're working with this week.
12z GFS 1/22:
First system (1/23) brings a little snow to NWLa as the system starts to pull away, but that's false hope if you look at the sounding.
Too dry and too warm aloft. No snow would actually fall in the depicted area.
Down the road, looking at next Tuesday there's another possible system but the same situation, dries out and gets cold when the precip is waning. Again, not what you'd call a snow maker here.
0z Canadian:
That isn't bad at all aloft, but looks too warm at the surface and not a lot of energy to play with. Speculative at best.
The cold for the end of the month keeps showing up on the Euro though:
Would just need a nice piece of energy to slide south of here to deliver some snow for all those hoping, but there's nothing out there to really be excited about currently. It's south Louisiana, this is to be expected.
Let's take a look at what we're working with this week.
12z GFS 1/22:
First system (1/23) brings a little snow to NWLa as the system starts to pull away, but that's false hope if you look at the sounding.
Too dry and too warm aloft. No snow would actually fall in the depicted area.
Down the road, looking at next Tuesday there's another possible system but the same situation, dries out and gets cold when the precip is waning. Again, not what you'd call a snow maker here.
0z Canadian:
That isn't bad at all aloft, but looks too warm at the surface and not a lot of energy to play with. Speculative at best.
The cold for the end of the month keeps showing up on the Euro though:
Would just need a nice piece of energy to slide south of here to deliver some snow for all those hoping, but there's nothing out there to really be excited about currently. It's south Louisiana, this is to be expected.
Posted on 1/22/19 at 11:11 am to Duke
Thanks for the update! 
Posted on 1/23/19 at 9:50 am to Mudminnow
If it drops 1 more degree this morning we'll have freezing rain 
Posted on 1/23/19 at 10:59 am to Jim Rockford
The Jan 23rd Update:
It's not likely you'll get to freezing rain territory, the layer just above should start getting to freezing quicker and you'll likely end up with a little sleet over East Texas way.
GFS has some actual sleet and winter precip showing up this morning for NWLa too.
For later today. Still fairly dry in that 850-700 mb range though, so might evap before getting to the ground. Still the best looking profile I've seen for this system. Watch that correlation coefficient and for brighter returns on the radar to suggest where ice might be falling.
Down in South Louisiana. It was nice a warm to start the day, but it gets cold fast on the back end of this system.
Weekend system looks, how would you say, not there on the GFS.
Jet split puts one system too far north (and cuts off cold) and another too far south.
Euro generally shows falling heights across the area though, and I've seen some snow maps popping up (oddly, leaving BR dry and dropping a couple inches across the south shore, but way too far out and uncertain for me to actually share). Point is, the potential ingredients keep showing themselves and the Euro is consistent with the right kind of cold pattern to end the month.
Though again, you'll never go broke betting against snow down here.
Finally, the Canadian shows some potential still on the 1/27-1/28 system but it would appear keeps the low levels too warm. That 540 line is well over the state with precip though, but alas, chasing frozen precip from the tail of a front isn't typically going to be the winning formula.
So...
In short, we're looking at an active pattern for the next 10 days. Fronts coming through, big temperature swings, but not getting much help up in the North Atlantic to block the cold in.
You'd like to see a high pressure build in up there, which would serve to force big dips in the jet stream down this way and keep them there. This set up keeps the cold farther north and everything moving quickly through.
Let's just say, I'm not optimistic on winter weather chances for us through the period.
It's not likely you'll get to freezing rain territory, the layer just above should start getting to freezing quicker and you'll likely end up with a little sleet over East Texas way.
GFS has some actual sleet and winter precip showing up this morning for NWLa too.
For later today. Still fairly dry in that 850-700 mb range though, so might evap before getting to the ground. Still the best looking profile I've seen for this system. Watch that correlation coefficient and for brighter returns on the radar to suggest where ice might be falling.
Down in South Louisiana. It was nice a warm to start the day, but it gets cold fast on the back end of this system.
Weekend system looks, how would you say, not there on the GFS.
Jet split puts one system too far north (and cuts off cold) and another too far south.
Euro generally shows falling heights across the area though, and I've seen some snow maps popping up (oddly, leaving BR dry and dropping a couple inches across the south shore, but way too far out and uncertain for me to actually share). Point is, the potential ingredients keep showing themselves and the Euro is consistent with the right kind of cold pattern to end the month.
Though again, you'll never go broke betting against snow down here.
Finally, the Canadian shows some potential still on the 1/27-1/28 system but it would appear keeps the low levels too warm. That 540 line is well over the state with precip though, but alas, chasing frozen precip from the tail of a front isn't typically going to be the winning formula.
So...
In short, we're looking at an active pattern for the next 10 days. Fronts coming through, big temperature swings, but not getting much help up in the North Atlantic to block the cold in.
You'd like to see a high pressure build in up there, which would serve to force big dips in the jet stream down this way and keep them there. This set up keeps the cold farther north and everything moving quickly through.
Let's just say, I'm not optimistic on winter weather chances for us through the period.
Page 2 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News