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re: Beryl Thread - the clean up begins...
Posted on 7/5/24 at 9:56 pm to The Boat
Posted on 7/5/24 at 9:56 pm to The Boat
quote:
Squarely into San Antonio/Matagorda Bay at 10 pm
I think this is where we'll start seeing some model consolidation and more consistency. Not that I think Galveston or Freeport are ok, but these east shifts are less likely as the landfall window is slowly closing. The next 24 will be a fun time here.
1
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:00 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
I think this is where we'll start seeing some model consolidation and more consistency.
Until the center reforms it’s a crapshoot. 20 miles in the gulf is 50+ miles up the Texas coast.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:02 pm to ABucks11
I get that but we're in the window right now where the NHC really nails these systems. I'd be very surprised if they shite the bed from this point on.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:05 pm to Oates Mustache
quote:
I get that but we're in the window right now where the NHC really nails these systems. I'd be very surprised if they shite the bed from this point on.
With a slight disclaimer though. Beryl is reorganizing and that process is prone to center relocations which will ultimately impact track. Your comment is spot on for well organized systems though.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:07 pm to Oates Mustache
Has anyone seen a 72hr model run. Just wondering if I should go get my parents in Missouri City
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:09 pm to OchoDedos
ICON made landfall at Rockport on the 0z run. 967mb
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:13 pm to lsugolfredman
We will know a lot more in 48 hours
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:18 pm to deltaland
Some of Beryl's outerbands have already made their way into South Louisiana.....rain, thunder and lighting consistent all evening in the Baton Rouge area. Good thing it's a Saturday tomorrow. No need for closures, yet. Last minute storm preparations, should be rushed to completion though.
This post was edited on 7/5/24 at 10:22 pm
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:21 pm to OchoDedos
Looks like the latest model has it predicted to hit near Matagorda Bay.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:22 pm to LaBR4
Looks that way… looks like a washout till Tuesday.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:28 pm to LegendInMyMind
As I watched the NHS satellite loop just now, it appears to me that the eye reformed to the east.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:36 pm to OchoDedos
quote:
Has anyone seen a 72hr model run. Just wondering if I should go get my parents in Missouri City
Can they survive without power and AC in 97 degree weather? That far inland with the storm trajectory your real concern is can I deal with no power and AC in the aftermath. It’s a lot like what Baton Rouge gets from a hurricane. This is also if it makes landfall north of Matagorda Bay.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:42 pm to The Boat
The impression I get is the worst case scenario would be what Lazybrook/Timbrrgrove/Garden Oaks got during the derecho, except for a much wider percentage of the city. This would also clearly take more time to fix, as this would be the opposite of economies of scale.
The Space City Weather guys said they didn’t anticipate 50 percent of the city losing power for a sustained period even with the reasonable worst case scenario, and the part that I would ask them to define is what would they consider a sustained period. A day? 4-5 days?
The Space City Weather guys said they didn’t anticipate 50 percent of the city losing power for a sustained period even with the reasonable worst case scenario, and the part that I would ask them to define is what would they consider a sustained period. A day? 4-5 days?
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:46 pm to BK Lounge
quote:
Hey does anyone have any educated guesses on, if this hits Houston (or any part of TX) next week- which specific DAY(s) it’s likely to hit ? Thanks
Why don’t you just do a quick search on the google machine instead of depending on answers from the OT? People do this same stuff on Facebook like dude in the time you took to post this and wait on a response, you would have certainly had your answer.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:55 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
The Space City Weather guys said they didn’t anticipate 50 percent of the city losing power for a sustained period even with the reasonable worst case scenario, and the part that I would ask them to define is what would they consider a sustained period. A day? 4-5 days?
If it makes landfall around Corpus almost none of the city will lose power. If it makes landfall in Matagorda County the power outages would be pretty significant south of I-10.
Posted on 7/5/24 at 10:58 pm to rds dc
It feels like this hurricane has been going on for a couple weeks. Longest timeline I can remember anyway
Posted on 7/5/24 at 11:07 pm to The Boat
Why would that be? Just curious
Posted on 7/5/24 at 11:10 pm to The Boat
This is a tricky forecast this close to landfall.
ULL shearing/pushing convection north. Could easily imagine a consolidation with the convection all on the north side. Then by Sunday with track being a partial function of strength and a near parallel approach to the coast.
You hate it when left or right 20 miles makes this much of a difference.
Irma still stands out as one of the great marathons.
ULL shearing/pushing convection north. Could easily imagine a consolidation with the convection all on the north side. Then by Sunday with track being a partial function of strength and a near parallel approach to the coast.
You hate it when left or right 20 miles makes this much of a difference.
quote:
It feels like this hurricane has been going on for a couple weeks. Longest timeline I can remember anyway
Irma still stands out as one of the great marathons.
This post was edited on 7/5/24 at 11:11 pm
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