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Started By
Message
re: Are we headed towards a recession?
Posted on 12/24/18 at 11:34 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
Posted on 12/24/18 at 11:34 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Why are you guys using the stock market as a proxy for economic growth?
I'm not
But I feel a global recession is on the horizon. I'm afraid that monetary policy could lead to a carter-esque problem in the USA.
1
Posted on 12/24/18 at 11:35 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Those blaming tax cuts for rising deficits are complete retards
Absolutely
They're not educated enough to discuss
Posted on 12/24/18 at 11:36 am to RogerTheShrubber
Maybe so, but in America at least, things like PMI,ISM, and durable goods orders are rising still
Posted on 12/24/18 at 11:37 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Maybe so, but in America at least, things like PMI,ISM, and durable goods orders are rising still
Right. The economy is still doing great overall
Posted on 12/24/18 at 11:38 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Maybe so, but in America at least, things like PMI,ISM, and durable goods orders are rising still
Unfortunately, so is PPI with no increase in CPI.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 11:39 am to Janky
quote:
I thought you said the other day that all stock market players are fools.
We are. But striving to be the lesser fool in a sea of greater ones can still earn you wealth.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 11:41 am to fallguy_1978
quote:
They held rates too low for too long. It's going to bite them in the arse now.
Maybe. 08 was pretty bad, though. I can understand being nervous about falling back into that and holding them low.
Regardless, the fed is doing what it has to do now. There's still projected growth, so it's not too late to correct rates as much as possible.
A recession may be on the horizon, but it's not here yet. This is the tack we should be taking until it's actually here.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 12:25 pm to fareplay
We're always either headed into or recovering from a recession. Since I got my 1st degree in 1988 there have been 3 or 4 recessions and recoveries.
It's kinda like dying, we've all been headed there since the day we were born.
It's kinda like dying, we've all been headed there since the day we were born.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 12:51 pm to fallguy_1978
quote:
That would be the community organizer that never held a private sector job
Hank Paulson, Tim Geithner, Ben Bernanke, CEOs of the major banks and a President who was willing to listen and learn rather than bombastically declare that he himself can fix it.
Now we have Steve Mnuchin who, inexplicably, gathered the CEOs of the 6 major banks yesterday to find out if we have liquidity issues. Why? No one knows. Trump wants to fire Fed chair Powell because Powell isn't doing what Trump, man who has bankrupted 6 businesses, wants him to do. Jamie Dimon and other bank CEOs have been outspokenly critical of this administration for mishandling governance. This White House and President are completely unprepared, inexperienced, and lacking knowledge to handle anything remotely close to what happened in '08 and, worse yet, a President who listens to no one.
This post was edited on 12/24/18 at 12:54 pm
Posted on 12/24/18 at 1:10 pm to mmmmmbeeer
As a couple with recession proof jobs and (too much) cash on hand, bring it the frick on. Gonna scoop up some investment properties.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 1:12 pm to fareplay
quote:yep, there are some sly investors on the PT bd - dey know all kinds of shite.
Where did you get this from?
Posted on 12/24/18 at 1:20 pm to mmmmmbeeer
quote:Why are you bizarrely trying to compare now to 2008? It makes zero sense. The market is declining now because of rate hikes....which the fed does when an economy is TOO GOOD. (aggregate demand outpacing supply, causing inflation)
mmmmmbeeer
We are at like 3% unemployment, consumer confidence highest since late 90s, manufacturing going strong, etc.
And, while there is always a chance growth may slow, the fed nor anyone else sees an outright recession occurring anytime soon.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 2:29 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Why are you bizarrely trying to compare now to 2008? It makes zero sense. The market is declining now because of rate hikes....which the fed does when an economy is TOO GOOD. (aggregate demand outpacing supply, causing inflation)
Tbf, that was the case in 2007 as well. Europe and Asia were down about 20%, commodities down 30%, in the US banks were -30%, homebuilders, cyclicals, crude (a big deflationary force) just whacked, at the time of the fed dec hike.
It was ill-advised and I’m no trump or any political party supporter.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 2:37 pm to kfaulk03
I think the fed hikes are good ideas
I am partial towards the Austrian school of economics. I fear artificially low interest rates. At least for an extended period of time
I am partial towards the Austrian school of economics. I fear artificially low interest rates. At least for an extended period of time
Posted on 12/24/18 at 2:55 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
Half this shite is driven by global uncertainty. Brexit, tariffs, etc. We could be heading towards a recession, but people who do this for a living aren't even really that sure. I do think Jerome Powell needs to shut his mouth though, the guy loves the limelight and is driving uncertainty in the market through conflicting comments.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 3:10 pm to Phat Phil
quote:
Nearly a decade of continuous bull market under Obama, start of bear market after transition to Trump. Sugar high from tax cuts to the rich doesn't last.
Wow. Where to start. You do realize don't you that the Dow was at 18000 on election day 2016? And that GDP growth in Obama's last year was 1.6%? All during a time of massive money printing by the Fed.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 4:21 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
Why are you bizarrely trying to compare now to 2008? It makes zero sense.
They can barely contain their excitement of a recession they can pin on this admin and they want it to be worse than 2008.
Posted on 12/24/18 at 4:25 pm to DallasTiger11
Yep. Sick individuals. Although there were conservatives rooting for bad shite during obama years too.
I remember last year during Charlottesville fiasco LSU TANGERINE came to the poliboard giddy after news of that Woman’s Death was announced. Was like Christmas morning for that partisan douche. He was so excited to pin the death on trump
I remember last year during Charlottesville fiasco LSU TANGERINE came to the poliboard giddy after news of that Woman’s Death was announced. Was like Christmas morning for that partisan douche. He was so excited to pin the death on trump
Posted on 12/24/18 at 4:26 pm to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:
HailHailtoMichigan
quote:Yep
partisan douche
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