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re: Anyone really believe we’re going back to even semi-normal on May 1st?

Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:00 am to
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
7951 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:00 am to
quote:

time to cut government in half


I've got a good friend who's in accounting with a big city.

He's a Democrat BTW.
He freely states that 1/2 of the city government could be axed with little to zero effect.
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:01 am to
quote:

2. Focusing on #COVID19 cases per 10,000 people helps identify locations that are likely going to exceed local hospital capabilities very quickly. See rank list here. Blaine, ID (tourist ski area) has the highest infection rate in the country


LINK



Posted by MusclesofBrussels
Member since Dec 2015
5034 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:03 am to
quote:

It's really not crazy at all.




You think locking people in their homes and shutting all "non-essential" business for 3.5-4 months is reasonable? I'm not talking about social distancing, but the actual stay at home/shelter in place orders.
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
21082 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:05 am to
quote:

reasonable


It’s not about reasonable but about the impetus for governments to release citizens from those orders.

We will not have a cure or vaccine or eradication by April 30th. What is going to be the reasoning the government uses to lift the orders? Especially if the death count is higher than ever?
Posted by pwejr88
Red Stick
Member since Apr 2007
37964 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:08 am to
Semi-normal? Yes.
Won’t be normal for a long time, but these idiots in here thinking society will cease to exist until June or July are crazy.
Posted by ell_13
Member since Apr 2013
88456 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:08 am to
Of course not. Leaders backed themselves into a corner with absolutely zero plan or reasoning for the first shutdowns. If they shutdown with 10 deaths a day, how can they justify opening things up with 100?

They’re shortsighted. They overreacted. All for fear of the public and media accusing them of doing “nothing”
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 10:09 am
Posted by Darth_Vader
A galaxy far, far away
Member since Dec 2011
74661 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:09 am to
Here’s the thing about your question. We have two choices:

1. Go back to normal at least by May 1

Or

2. Go into complete economic collapse heralding in an economic depression that will dwarf the Great Depression of the 1930s.

So we have to chose. How many deaths will result from a Depression versus how many would die from the virus?
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 10:10 am
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
78047 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:09 am to
quote:

People guessing that stay at home orders will last 3 more months are insane.


This is the progression of the argument.

“Anyone who sees us being shutdown into March is insane.”

“Anyone who sees us being shutdown through March is insane.”

“Anyone who sees us being shutdown into April are insane.”

Etc. etc. etc.

Everyone expressed that they wanted a complete and full shutdown, well, our leaders picked up that football and are running with it.

They had no plan and did not care to look at the endgame.

People were scared into panic by the media and our “leaders” had to act.

Everyone should just say thank you at this point.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 10:14 am
Posted by Privateer 2007
Member since Jan 2020
7951 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:09 am to
quote:

people guessing 3 months are insane


I agree 3 months ain't happening.

However, nothing surprising me now.
People were saying that restricting interstate travel was insane less than ba month ago.
And here we are.
Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:10 am to
You aren't locked in your home right now. Hell, the shelter in place in America is pretty easy compared to other countries. I have friends in France and they've restricted them from jogging or walking in groups of two.

I don't know what other options at this moment are better for this situation. Especially when a number of people are still ignoring said order.
Posted by MusclesofBrussels
Member since Dec 2015
5034 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:12 am to
quote:


We will not have a cure or vaccine or eradication by April 30th. What is going to be the reasoning the government uses to lift the orders? Especially if the death count is higher than ever?


We were never going to have a cure or vaccine in the short term. Hopefully our politicians aren't so inept that that was the motivation behind the shutdowns.

I get not having faith in them to lift the shutdowns in a reasonable manner. That's where most of my anxiety in this entire mess comes from rather than fear if the virus itself. 3-4 additional months still seems unreasonable to me.
Posted by MusclesofBrussels
Member since Dec 2015
5034 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:14 am to
quote:

You aren't locked in your home right now.




Posted by Starchild
Member since May 2010
13550 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:15 am to
I think normal is a long ways off, maybe late summer/early fall if we can get a handle on the number of cases. I do anticipate we’ll slowly get back to some normalcy, just not all at once. People will be able to work mostly. We’ll just have some guidelines in place and certainly no large crowds for awhile.
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
78047 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:16 am to
quote:

3-4 additional months still seems unreasonable to me.
3-4 additional months would destroy the global economy.

We would be nearing 1/2 a year of economic slowing/shutdown at that point. That is batshit insane.

Also, hospitals would not be able to function financially if they don’t open up clinics, elective surgeries, etc., long before then.
This post was edited on 4/4/20 at 10:19 am
Posted by The Spleen
Member since Dec 2010
38865 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:17 am to
quote:

We were never going to have a cure or vaccine in the short term. Hopefully our politicians aren't so inept that that was the motivation behind the shutdowns.


It wasn’t. It was to prevent rapid spread that would put an impossible burden on our healthcare system. Problem is, we acted too late in some areas and that burden is happening now.
Posted by hehateme2285
Katy, TX
Member since Dec 2007
5327 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:17 am to
I don’t understand how this has progressed from basically “we can’t overrun the healthcare system. Wait for the peak, then we can go out because you may get it anyway”, to people thinking “we can’t do anything until there’s a vaccine a year from now.”

There’s always a risk of getting sick, the whole point of flattening the curve is so when you get sick, you can receive treatment.
Posted by MusclesofBrussels
Member since Dec 2015
5034 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:22 am to
quote:


3-4 additional months would destroy the global economy.

We would be nearing 1/2 a year of economic slowing/shutdown at that point. That is bat shite insane.


Exactly. I didn't articulate it well in this thread, but the reason I jumped in is that it's frustrating to me to see people posting those numbers and already coming to terms with it. We should not accept that as a society if that's where this starts to trend.
Posted by Scruffy
Kansas City
Member since Jul 2011
78047 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:22 am to
quote:

I don’t understand how this has progressed from basically “we can’t overrun the healthcare system. Wait for the peak, then we can go out because you may get it anyway”, to people thinking “we can’t do anything until there’s a vaccine a year from now.”
Because every step of the way, the peak has been pushed back consistently, which is the goal of flattening the curve to a degree (along with decreasing the peak).

The only response any politician has given to this situation has been to prolong the shutdown.

Not one has discussed any plan to start opening some businesses back up, slowly or otherwise.

Dallas has now shutdown until May 20th.

JBE sounds like he wants to follow suit.

Other locations like NYC are going to remain shutdown for the foreseeable future.

No one has any idea when any economic movement will begin again.

That is where the anxiety comes from.
Posted by Golfer
Member since Nov 2005
75052 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:24 am to
quote:

Because every step of the way, the peak has been pushed back consistently, which is the goal of flattening the curve to a degree (along with decreasing the peak).

The only response any politician has given to this situation has been to prolong the shutdown.

Not one has discussed any plan to start opening some businesses back up, slowly or otherwise.

Dallas has now shutdown until May 20th.

JBE sounds like he wants to follow suit.

Other locations like NYC are going to remain shutdown for the foreseeable future.

No one has any idea when any economic movement will begin again.

That is where the anxiety comes from.


Posted by JBeam
Guns,Germs & Steel
Member since Jan 2011
68377 posts
Posted on 4/4/20 at 10:24 am to
Four months would put us in August. I sort of get why elected officials don't want to freak people out. But given our slow response to this. I don't think it's out of the realm of possibilities.
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