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re: NFL Playoff OT rules: The 2nd possession and 3rd possession hold massive advantages
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:20 am to lsupride87
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:20 am to lsupride87
quote:
2nd and 3rd possession hold massive advantages
Great post by the OP. I definitely had not factored-in that if both kicked a FG that SF could have a huge advantage being able to walk it off with a FG in their next possession. It’s a shame that defense that dominated all game couldn’t stop them from scoring a TD in overtime.
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Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:49 am to lsupride87
I think that in general I support having the ball first in the new OT rules UNLESS Pat Mahomes is the other QB. I think you are at such a huge disadvantage giving him 4 downs if needed. Make him go first and pray for a stop.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:51 am to lsupride87
Just go back to sudden death it was a better system and more exciting.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:55 am to Mizz-SEC
quote:
They could have closed in out in regulation and failed.
They 100% win that game if CMC runs the ball more on that last set of downs.
Chiefs barely got down the field with all that extra time and 2 time outs. If Shanahan isn't a literal dumb frick and runs the ball 2 more times, you eliminate those timeouts for KC.
Just a mountain of errors cost the niners this game.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 10:05 am to lsupride87
quote:
How can there be analytics from something that has zero data?
We have data now.
Under the current OT rules, in the Super Bowl, the team that gets the ball first loses 100% of the time.
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 10:14 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 10:12 am to lsupride87
Im not going to go as far as saying its necessarily bad data as much as muddy data. I think its the same for alot of the data driven decision were seeing now, such as going for two or going on 4th down. It's using numbers from
A) when these things werent attempted as much
and B) werent attempted in the situations they are now
I feel like sports has too many confounding variables to make decisions almost purely based on analytics. I think the analytics can definitely help and its a good tool but at a certain point you have to factor in the feel and flow of the game as well.
When it comes to this I think you need to play it as if you have the ball second and try to get a td no matter what. If shannahan felt like his d was gassed and needed more time thats fine but just assume theyre going to be gassed still when they get back on the field and go for 6. if it doesnt work it doesnt work but at least youre doing everything to control the outcome of the game.
A) when these things werent attempted as much
and B) werent attempted in the situations they are now
I feel like sports has too many confounding variables to make decisions almost purely based on analytics. I think the analytics can definitely help and its a good tool but at a certain point you have to factor in the feel and flow of the game as well.
When it comes to this I think you need to play it as if you have the ball second and try to get a td no matter what. If shannahan felt like his d was gassed and needed more time thats fine but just assume theyre going to be gassed still when they get back on the field and go for 6. if it doesnt work it doesnt work but at least youre doing everything to control the outcome of the game.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 10:15 am to lsupride87
Shanahan made a lot of coaching mistakes yesterday but that wasn’t one of them. He made the right call. When you take the ball first, you dictate the terms of engagement both for your offense and for the other team’s offense.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 10:32 am to lsupride87
quote:
You are saying the 49ers would have gone for it on 4th and 5 from their own 30 on their possession? Of course they wouldn’t
But the chiefs would have because they KNEW the outcome they at least had to have.
No, I'm saying the chiefs decisions are the same regardless of whether sf scores 3 or 7 on first possession; ie. Chiefs are going for it on 4th down anywhere in their territory.
The only thing that changes for the chiefs is they cannot settle for 3 if 49ers score a TD.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 10:39 am to castorinho
Analytics got Detroit beat and the 49ers beat. Keep using it NFL coaches. 
Posted on 2/12/24 at 10:43 am to lsupride87
What is the problem with just saying we are playing 15 minutes of football and the team winning at the end wins?
Posted on 2/12/24 at 10:50 am to crazyatthecamp
quote:then you get into the potential issue of time wasting. I really think this format is probably the best outcome in terms of keeping the game entertaining and keeping a normal flow.
What is the problem with just saying we are playing 15 minutes of football and the team winning at the end wins?
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 10:51 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:00 am to dcrews
Well, they could only have eliminated one of the TOs.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:07 am to lsupride87
So if 2nd ot possession cant score inside a 15min quarter, the game continues… oooookaaaaaaay.
This is no different than HS/College OT except nfl starts in their own territory with sudden death after 2nd possession tie.
Zero reason for a time clock.
This is no different than HS/College OT except nfl starts in their own territory with sudden death after 2nd possession tie.
Zero reason for a time clock.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:11 am to lsupride87
quote:
How can there be analytics from something that has zero data?
Running a ton of simulations based on historical data that we do have.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:11 am to 632627
quote:
They likely go for that 4th and 1 no matter what San Francisco’s outcome was on the first possession.
You think they go for it on their own 35 yard line if SF punts on their first possession? That's crazy talk.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:12 am to MikeD
4th and a foot? Yeah.
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 11:13 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:16 am to lsupride87
quote:There's no chance in hell they're punting in 4th and less than 1 in OT.
Bold take considering they punted during the game in the exact same scenario. There is no guessing here. You know you have to go for the 4th
That they did it earlier in the game is irrelevant. 2 entirely different scenarios.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:17 am to shel311
quote:Going for it there in OT(hypothetical 1st possession) is far more dangerous than in regulation though. Seems strange to not do it in regulation if you are 100% going to do it in OT
There's no chance in hell they're punting in 4th and less than 1 in OT. That they did it earlier in the game is irrelevant. 2 entirely different scenarios.
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 11:18 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:21 am to Dairy Sanders
quote:But what if the terms you dictate give the other side an advantage?
Shanahan made a lot of coaching mistakes yesterday but that wasn’t one of them. He made the right call. When you take the ball first, you dictate the terms of engagement both for your offense and for the other team’s offense.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 11:22 am to Gavin Elster
quote:Not the Lions.
Analytics got Detroit beat and the 49ers beat. Keep using it NFL coaches.
They had a better chance of converting that 4th and 3 than they did of the kicker making that FG per the data. By a pretty wide margin too
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 11:25 am
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