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NFL Playoff OT rules: The 2nd possession and 3rd possession hold massive advantages
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:42 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:42 am
Problem is, the 2nd possession is guaranteed, the third is not
So making a decision to skip the guaranteed advantage of having the ball second for something that make never happen seems extremely sketchy
So making a decision to skip the guaranteed advantage of having the ball second for something that make never happen seems extremely sketchy
15
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:47 am to lsupride87
quote:
according to the analytics folks, teams who take possession first under the new nfl overtime rules have 55.4 percent chance of winning, down from 59.9 under the previous rules, but still favoring the team that takes it first. OT for college football is not the same.
Random reply on Twitter.
I'm sure we'll see some definitive data on this in the coming days. But I'm a strong lean on taking the ball first.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:49 am to castorinho
How can there be analytics from something that has zero data? 
It’s absolutely a guessing game. They have zero data of teams being in this actual environment to pull from. They can only pull data from a regular season environment which is completely different
The only data they now have showed getting the ball second is huge. 49ers had to kick a fg inside the 10 since they went first and the chiefs went for it on 4th on their own side of the field
It’s absolutely a guessing game. They have zero data of teams being in this actual environment to pull from. They can only pull data from a regular season environment which is completely different The only data they now have showed getting the ball second is huge. 49ers had to kick a fg inside the 10 since they went first and the chiefs went for it on 4th on their own side of the field
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 8:54 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:51 am to lsupride87
Well, if you want to go that route then Shanahan's thought of his D being gassed works too.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:55 am to lsupride87
quote:
How can there be analytics from something that has zero data?
my guess is that they use data from the old way when both teams kick FGs.
not ideal, but it's something.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:56 am to Nutriaitch
quote:If that’s what is from it’s almost worthless. Completely different environment
my guess is that they use data from the old way when both teams kick FGs. not ideal, but it's something.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 8:59 am to castorinho
quote:
Well, if you want to go that route then Shanahan's thought of his D being gassed works too.
Plus the fact that they easily drove the ball down the field before settling for the FG supports the fact that the Chiefs defense was gassed too and you want to take advantage of that ASAP.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:01 am to AUFANATL
quote:The chiefs D hadn’t been on the field for 22 minutes of real time before OT started. Shannahan is just grasping at something there
Plus the fact that they easily drove the ball down the field before settling for the FG supports the fact that the Chiefs defense was gassed too and you want to take advantage of that ASAP.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:02 am to lsupride87
quote:
NFL Playoff OT rules: The 2nd possession and 3rd possession hold massive advantages
Also helps to not have a massive choke artist at HC
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:08 am to lsupride87
If you take the ball first, I think you have to be aggressive and go for the touchdown. None of this kick a FG inside the 10-yard line bullshite. And you have to go for 2 if you score. Especially with Mahomes on the other side.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:11 am to lsupride87
The absolute rule is never let Mahomes poseess the ball last.
They could have closed in out in regulation and failed.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:11 am to lsupride87
quote:
If that’s what is from it’s almost worthless. Completely different environment
It’s either use that info, or nothing.
Also, in regards to the team with possession knowing what they need to do, they still must drive the ball down the field, regardless of the first outcome.
The chiefs didn’t necessarily do anything out of the ordinary on their possession (ie. gain an advantage by having the ball second). They likely go for that 4th and 1 no matter what San Francisco’s outcome was on the first possession.
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 9:13 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:11 am to lsupride87
This is an absolute shite take
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:12 am to 632627
quote:No data is better than bad data
It’s either that, or nothing.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:13 am to 632627
quote:Bold take considering they punted during the game in the exact same scenario. There is no guessing here. You know you have to go for the 4th
The chiefs didn’t necessarily do anything out of the ordinary on their possession (ie. gain an advantage by having the ball second). They likely go for that 4th and 1 no matter what
quote:knowing you have 4 plays per set of downs vs 3 is a big difference
Also, in regards to the team with possession knowing what they need to do, they still must drive the ball down the field, regardless of the first outcome.
This post was edited on 2/12/24 at 9:14 am
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:13 am to lsupride87
How’s the data bad? It reflects likely outcomes of a possession.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:14 am to 632627
quote:Because you are pulling game data from coaches that were in a completely different scenario with a different rule set
How’s the data bad? It reflects likely outcomes of a possession.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:14 am to lsupride87
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:15 am to lsupride87
quote:
knowing you have 4 plays per set of downs vs 3 is a big difference
Whether the 49ers kick a fg or score a td, it’s still the same for most of the possession.
The only difference being they can’t settle for a fg if down by a td.
Posted on 2/12/24 at 9:17 am to 632627
quote:No
Whether the 49ers kick a fg or score a td, it’s still the same for most of the possession.
You are saying the 49ers would have gone for it on 4th and 5 from their own 30 on their possession? Of course they wouldn’t
But the chiefs would have because they KNEW the outcome they at least had to have.
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